Lucas Martin Calderon

why did i become a prediction markets maxi ? (opinionated take) ai will endanger capitalism, as the output of elite education with raw intellect will become globally available and cheap ai will endanger manual labor, as the human capital required for construction, mechanics, or even home chores will be priced at $1.50/hour with robots like tesla’s optimus my take? ai perfectly masters and replaces performance-oriented tasks (consulting, coding, manufacturing, trading, healthcare…), with entertainment and attention being the black sheep, or rather golden eggs here: “ai as the engine, and humans as the steering wheel” (@VitalikButerin ) a few years ago, prediction markets were sanctioned by the cftc, actioned through the fbi. today, every month polymarket and kalshi have billions worth of volume. tomorrow they will be bigger wrappers than the nasdaq and the collective “proof-of-stake” tool against a dangerously growing misinformation flywheel without a shred of doubt, those companies that master attention, put humans in the steering wheel and go with the users already are, will undoubtedly win the game DM if you are interested to be part of that new world

@RBCDigitalGold @RBCDigitalGold - place $50 in Spain

France vs Spain (Semi-final) - Who advances? France Spain app.kash.bot/o/rbc/markets/…

@0xth320v just the beginning 👀

@lmc_security kash's growing 🔥

prediction markets roundup - polymarket expanded into turkey through a paribu integration - prospect prediction markets signed an agreement with a crypto.com-backed broker to launch sports-focused prediction contracts in the united states - traders sued polymarket in new york, claiming the platform changed the rules after their bet had already won, turning a payout on a strategy bitcoin sale into a loss - polymarket enabled instant self-custodial bitcoin deposits via the lightning network, powered by spark - kash continues its expansion push, announcing partnerships with perptools, chiliz and Matchain which update stands out most?

@valeriyshevchuk Always 🫡

@lmc_security Keep kashing to avoid krashing 🫡

@Hikkimori @kash_bot Welcome bro!

SUPER excited to announce that I am officially a @kash_bot creator You can now spawn prediction markets straight from your Timeline and also bet on traditional markets all on Kash. Super excited for this because it genuinely feels like a new toy rather than another tech tool

@PairieK @ahall_research You bet!

@lmc_security @ahall_research lots more to do!!

Me and @ahall_research reran the same experiment with frontier models: GPT 5.5, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Claude Opus 4.8, Grok 4.5 with the same initial benchmarks (MMLU-Pro-Math 150, GSM8K 40, Truthful QA 4) and AIMO. We built the instrument error correlation (the rate at which two wrong models give the same answer). The results changed significantly, we found that: 1. No council structure beats its best member on any benchmark. Models barely disagree - across all 329 questions there was not a case where exactly one model was right. 2. When they are wrong they are wrong together. @krishnanrohit thesis about consensus machines was clearly shown to be true. Models are reaching the same wrong conclusion likely because they share training data, distillation targets and RLHF conventions. On MMLU-Pro Math, the only benchmark that had enough errors to study, every one of the 6 vendor pairs showed a high error correlation. It is clear that on standard question-answering benchmarks for math, general knowledge and a factual reasoning a council of 2026 frontier models is no longer worth running. The existing models are already able to score 94-99% on our original benchmarks. Harder benchmarks should be able to produce more significant results. As a next step, we will rerun the experiment with Humanity's Last Exam, ARC-AGI-2 and MarketBench 93 SWE-bench Lite tasks. Other questions we will focus on: - Does more deliberation keep helping or collapse into agreement? If one round of discussion helps, do two help more or does the group just converge to the consensus early and then entrench it? - When one model is right and the rest are wrong, does the correct answer survive aggregation?

@elonmusk Iridium right now

Starlink can now provide reliable 10Gpbs symmetric send/receive connectivity anywhere in the world

@LunarCrush Gotta get my British side out @LunarCrush place $25 on England Cheers

Norway vs England: Which team wins the social battle on match day? Norway England app.kash.bot/o/lunarcrush/m…

@bwhdx @bwhdx0 Just tag @bwhdx to place $10 on No

@lmc_security @bwhdx0 Seems too tricky for me too! 3rd parties must be direct mentions as we don't enable standalone mentions for them

[TESTNET] native-image announcement test 19:45:00 Yes No

@petrixbarbosa 👀👀👀👀👀 can't wait

MATCHAIN IS ABOUT TO GET WILD. 🚨📈 Prediction markets are coming. FIFA World Cup. Politics. Crypto. Global economy. 🌍⚽ Not an order book. No market makers. No one in control. Just you, your conviction, and your identity onchain. 🔥 Transparent. Decentralized. Fun. @MatchID_AI + $MAT. Spreading across the best ecosystems. 💥 Powered by an incredible partner. Soon to be announced. Soon. Very soon. 2 products dropping in the next 7 days. Stay close. 👀 @matchain_io

@AlexFinn Agreed What’s the reason for your shift away from the claw?

Hermes is the most powerful AI agent on Earth right now I've used it for over 100+ hours the last few months. NOBODY has used it more In this video I cover EVERY single lesson learned. From which model to use, to best security practices The only Hermes vid you'll ever need:

@kash_bot_trades put $50.00 on yes @kash_bot_trades

Will Anthropic announce an extension of the current Claude Fable 5 promotion before July 13 PT? Yes No app.kash.bot/markets/3664d5…

@j_mumeen Soon ser

@lmc_security No update on Kash?

prediction markets roundup - world xyz launched a solana-native prediction market powered by chainlink - kalshi and adi predictstreet partnered to expand global prediction market offerings and depth during the 2026 fifa world cup - kalshi and polymarket asked a federal judge to block minnesota from enforcing its statewide ban on prediction market operators - gopuff partnered with polymarket to launch a $1 million gold giveaway to celebrate america's 250th birthday - spotify demanded that kalshi and polymarket stop using its name following allegations of music chart manipulation for trading payouts - vermiculus was selected by a major global crypto exchange to provide a 24/7 real-time clearing solution for prediction markets which update stands out most?

@kash_bot_trades put $200 on france @kash_bot_trades

Paraguay vs France (Round of 16) - Who advances? Paraguay France app.kash.bot/markets/211398…

@kash_bot 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️

call it right on 𝕏, get paid in $ARG 🇦🇷 Messi for a brace vs Cape Verde sits at 35%. $ARG to hold above $0.24 tonight? 76%. what's your prediction? 👉 app.kash.bot

@miguelsantafe Saddened to see that…

💔