Bryan

16 posts

Bryan

Bryan

@longvalue537

Katılım Nisan 2009
200 Takip Edilen30 Takipçiler
Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@Comedyorwat Literally Ryan does. A CEO, as a corporate officer, owes fiduciary duties primarily to the corporation itself and, by extension, to its shareholders.
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JACKIE LE' TITS 👑🌈
JACKIE LE' TITS 👑🌈@Comedyorwat·
I don't give a shit how long you've waited or held for No one owes you anything
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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@larryvc Been a GME holder for years sounding wrong all the time. When will GME shareholders be rewarded for our patience
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Larry Cheng
Larry Cheng@larryvc·
A major competitive advantage for those with this DNA: "Thiel said the number one predictor of which of his students went on to build something important was not intelligence. It was tolerance for being publicly wrong-sounding for years before being right."
Sukh Sroay@sukh_saroy

Peter thiel asked a room of stanford students one question that made most of them quietly stop typing. He asked them what important truth do very few people agree with you on. Then he said the reason most of them could not answer it was the same reason their careers would be average. His name is Peter Thiel, and he has funded more zero to one companies than almost anyone alive. Here is what he said, and why it changes how you should be thinking about your work right now. He said the most valuable thing a person can own in the next decade is not a skill, not a network, and not capital. It is a real contrarian belief that turns out to be true. For most of history, being right about things everyone else was also right about was enough to build a good career. In the world that is arriving, consensus knowledge is free. Anyone can ask a model and get the answer the smart people would have given. The only thing that compounds is being correctly early on something the room thinks is wrong. His framework for testing your contrarian belief is brutally simple. He calls it the three layer test. The first layer is whether your belief is actually contrarian. Most people fail here instantly. They think they have a contrarian view, but when they say it out loud, half the room nods. If your belief is one a smart person at a dinner party would agree with after thinking for ten seconds, it is not contrarian. It is just slightly under the surface consensus. The second layer is whether your belief is specific enough to act on. Saying education is broken is not contrarian, it is a t-shirt. Saying a specific category of credential will collapse in a specific industry within a specific window is something you can build a company around. Most people stop at the t-shirt and wonder why they never compound. The third layer is the one almost everyone skips. Are you actually willing to look stupid for it. Thiel said the number one predictor of which of his students went on to build something important was not intelligence. It was tolerance for being publicly wrong-sounding for years before being right. He said the students who held their contrarian belief privately, waiting for it to be socially safe to say, almost always watched someone else build the thing they had quietly believed in for a decade. The people who are actually winning right now are not the ones with the most knowledge. They are the ones who picked one uncomfortable truth, said it out loud before it was safe, and stayed there long enough for the world to catch up.

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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@npantano_ This is what people should be talking about instead of placing more blind faith in Ryan. We need him to start courting the GME community into this deal by providing more clarity on how this affects our stock price and how that stock price will make this deal realistic
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Nicholas A. Pantano
Nicholas A. Pantano@npantano_·
⚡️ I won't tolerate misinformation. GME can hit $100 by March, however the narrative MUST ALIGN for mathematical reality. RC's deal was laughably shot down because it was entirely speculative, he CANNOT AFFORD EBAY TODAY. >>The most recent $GME / $EBAY cult cope mechanisms I've seen cycling Twitter are: -Equity Rollover -Accretive Share Dilution ‼️‼️📕 This write-up explains why both are currently mathematically impossible, and what can change for them to become possible. Both arguments rely heavily on assumptive speculation regarding future negotiation routes. ----------------------- These are the definitions & how they apply directly to the hypothetical $Ebay merger which currently does not exist. 📚 Equity Rollover: This is when the seller of a company (EBAY) agrees to roll the EXISTING VALUE of their current outstanding shares into the newly combined company, instead of accepting an all cash offer AT CLOSING. The seller accepts NEW DILUTION from the buyer (GME), as payment. Newly diluted shares at closing, are allocated/sent to the seller to match their own outstanding share's current purchased worth ($29B). **Why is this impossible today? 1. When existing stock value is rolled from the seller to the new company, the buyer must dilute the EXACT VALUE NESSESARY to match the exiting seller's share value (222m shares = $29B in worth). In RC's proposed hypothetical scenario (50% cash 50% stock), this means the total value of EBAY ($58.5B market cap) will be paid for with half cash $29B & half stock $29B (which is 222m EBAY shares worth). GME must then DILUTE GME Common shares to the equivalent of $29B in value, to then allocate these new shares to existing EBAY shareholders at closing. 2. This is impossible today because GME is trading at $22 & can only legally dilute 550mil shares (which is what's left of the 1Billion total as of the June '22 shareholder agreement, current GME outstanding is 450mil). This equates to $22 x 550m = $12.1B in value, which is $17B short of the $29B needed to purchase the stock side of the 50/50 deal. 3. **Hypothetical: If RC is able to gain new shareholder/board approval to dilute more (just proposed 2.5Bil more yesterday) & add to the 550m shares he has left (roughly 1.3Billion more total) he could mathematically afford EBAY today at a $22 stock price. $22 x 1.3Bil = $28.6Bil in value to allocate to EBAY shareholders in a rollover. But this would mean the new company would be divided 85-15 in ownership, EBAY to GME. This is an extremely bad scenario. ‼️***The only LEGAL way to propose a realistic deal to EBAY is to either: -Raise GME's current stock price to around $50-60 and dilute there -Restructure the deal to more cash over stock (say 70/30) -Find more debt vehicles to use to offer more cash -Gain shareholder approval to dilute more than the total of 550m shares at GME's current stock price of $22 ----------------------- 📚 Accretive Share Dilution: This term is shorthand for "new dilution will increase the future company's EPS (earnings per share) not lower it." So good dilution, not bad. This is a hypothetical future performance term, where shareholders believe RC will make the necessary moves to increase GME shareholder value in the newly merged company & offset any damage new dilution (to afford EBAY AT CLOSING) inflicts on GME Common shareholders. **What GME accounts are speculating: 1. After the merger is complete a 80% rise in EPS 2. Annual cost reductions of $2B 3. Higher operating margins 4. Complete integration success no hiccups 5. Zero operational disruptions/disagreements 6. New creative streams of revenue **Why is this impossible today? 1. Speculators are using PROJECTED: -EPS -Financing costs -Operational costs -Valuation (PE) multiples -Market reactions -Issuance price stability ‼️***This is not fair value, it is scenario modeling. IF GME's price rises by Dec to $50 this conversation becomes more realistic. 💵 I personally think this will end up being a hostile takeover. There are ZERO scenarios the POI system is showing me where GME is lower than $50 by March '27. The Warrant narrative alone enough to take us to $37 on the first super macro leg by October 30th. Conversations/ideas below are welcome. 🍻
Nicholas A. Pantano tweet mediaNicholas A. Pantano tweet media
Nicholas A. Pantano@npantano_

🚨🚨 ALLLLL LAST WEEK I posted saying the only way Cohen can afford Ebay at GameStop's current $24 stock price was to either: -Get GME to $50 and dilute 550m there at closing -Structure the deal differently weighing more toward cash than stock -Get new debt loans from somewhere -Have a shareholder meeting to allow issuance of more than the current 1b shares allocated GME just proposed to raise total outstanding to 2.5B at the next shareholder meeting $GME WHY? Cause they cannot fucking afford Ebay as of today's stock price. Hard work being right all the time.✌️🏻

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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@SimulatedLie @APompliano @ryancohen As a GME shareholder, I want to know how this strategy is going to directly impact the price of my GME stock. The stock has been range bound and heading lower again. When will long term GME holders be rewarded
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SimulatedMarkets
SimulatedMarkets@SimulatedLie·
This is the best interview @ryancohen has given It's clear this man is a visionary, a contrarian & wants the best for society I'm proud to be invested in $GME, I'm proud to be part of this movement & I'm proud that this man represents us
Anthony Pompliano 🌪@APompliano

FULL INTERVIEW: @ryancohen explains his plan to acquire eBay. He unpacks his pitch to institutional investors, why eBay is so horribly run, and how Ryan plans to create billion in shareholder value. $GME $EBAY

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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@magsonthemoon As a GME stock holder of many years, what I care about is how this merger is going to impact the price of the GME stock. Ryan has not provided enough clarity on how this will affect our stock price and the community deserve more answers
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Mags
Mags@magsonthemoon·
wost
Mags tweet media
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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@ButtFarm69 As a GME stock holder of many years, what I care about is how this is going to impact the price of the GME stock. Ryan has not provided enough clarity on how this will affect our stock price and the community deserve more answers
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ButtFarm69
ButtFarm69@ButtFarm69·
I should've seen this coming. The $GME price is getting pinned because big money is accumulating the stock in anticipation of the deal going through (eventually). They will trap the price in this low $20s zone until we receive news that brings us into the next stage of the M&A development. They are buying right now. This is what they did last summer after the Convertible Note #2 as well. Institutional Ownership was at 33.92% in May, and went up to 38% in August. It's likely we are seeing a similar accumulation phase happening right now. We will likely be pinned here until we get news. Emoji Cycles are taking a backseat to the M&A traders.
GIF
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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@MorgenHatton @eBay @ryancohen As a GME stock holder of many years, what I care about is how this is going to impact the price of the GME stock. Ryan has not provided enough clarity on how this will affect our stock price and the community deserve more answers
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MD
MD@MorgenHatton·
$GME at $21.89 and the chart looks like chaos. But zoom out. The @eBay board rejected @RyanCohen’s acquisition offer. That does not mean the fight is over. It may mean the real fight is about to begin. My prediction: @RyanCohen goes directly to eBay shareholders next. That means he bypasses the boardroom and speaks to the owners of the company themselves. He lays out the offer, the vision, the numbers, and the future then forces shareholders to ask one simple question: Why is our board blocking us from even considering this? This is no longer just about @eBay. It is about control.
It is about accountability.
It is about whether tired boards get to protect themselves while shareholders get left behind. The chart may look weak. The strategy does not. @RyanCohen made the offer.
The board said no.
Now the shareholders may get their turn. $GME $EBAY
MD tweet media
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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@Kyl0Z3n @gamestop So many interviews, so little clarity on what this means for the GME stock price…
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Kyl⭕ZΞn
Kyl⭕ZΞn@Kyl0Z3n·
Caught up on the RC interviews. They were pretty convincing…but the last 5 years investing in $GME @gamestop doesn’t really instill much confidence. If you don’t understand the concern you’re just an ignorant cultist.
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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@PhantomBlack699 So many interviews, so little clarity on what this means for the GME stock price. Our community deserves answers
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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@DOMOCAPITAL Hey Justin, do you still think the vote for his stock package happens next month?
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Bryan retweetledi
bad robot
bad robot@foxenflask·
If $GME is going to acquire $EBAY, this is how I expect it to go: Unlike traditional activist campaigns that unfold over 18-24 months, this timeline could compress into roughly 12 months from first trade to full control, leveraging GME's enormous cash position to build a stake so large so fast that the board has no viable defense. Phase 1 (Weeks 1-8): Dual stealth accumulation to ~9.8% combined ($4.3B) via dark pools before any public filing (dual as in, GameStop and Ryan Cohen separately and together). Perhaps other partners and affiliates accumulate during this phase as well (Nat?). I believe this phase is over. Phase 2 (Weeks 8-10): Dual 13D filings plus a public white paper; expected EBAY pop of 15-30% and GME pop of 10-20% Phase 3 (Weeks 11-20): Proxy fight for 3-5 board seats at EBAYs next annual meeting while building to 15-20% combined stake Phase 4 (Months 5-12): Board control, install Ryan Cohen as Chair, execute cost cuts, redirect FCF to buybacks, etc The stealth phase is compressed to 8 weeks because GME's cash allows aggressive accumulation at 15-20% of daily volume across multiple prime brokers and dark pools. Both GME and Ryan Cohen accumulate independently to 4.9% each, staying below the 5% 13D trigger. HSR filings happen on Day 1 but are confidential. By Week 8, the combined position is ~9.8% ($4.3B deployed) and nobody knows. The dual 13D filings at Week 8-10 hit the market like a bomb: the largest shareholder bloc in eBay, backed by $9B+ in additional firepower, with a public white paper detailing the value creation plan. From there, continued accumulation during the proxy fight period pushes the combined stake to 15-20%, making the proxy contest a mathematical certainty. Board control follows, and the transformation begins.
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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@ryancohen is a Hollow Man if he expects his shareholders to approve a 35% dilutive stock incentive plan without showing any hint of a strategic path forward. Epitome of trust me bro! $GME
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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
Why should we approve Ryan Cohen’s stock package with little stated strategy? Yes, he cut costs & streamlined the business but most CEOs can do this. Poorly timed ATMs hurt us. A 35% further dilution deserves answers. Is he really irreplaceable? We deserve transparency first $GME
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Bryan
Bryan@longvalue537·
@larryvc Love you Larry but can you spend less time posting random things and more time working Gamestop leadership to provide any update on the large amounts of cash you have milked through ATMs. It feels like a slap in the face to read these posts while my investment underperforms
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Larry Cheng
Larry Cheng@larryvc·
Uncommon to see a marimekko in the wild.
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