Loop Capital

@mike98572986 @filipsamardzicc Shameful

@filipsamardzicc $qure $clpt Pretty wild when you think about it, these guys move Heaven and Earth speed for some psychedelic treatments and tell the HD community to wait another 5-7 years. What an insane world we live in.

$ATAI $CMPS $DFTX FDA commissioner says decision on psychedelic treatments will be out 'quickly' nbcnews.com/now/video/fda-…

@ianmiles fake news. Read the article. President Trump said a 10-point plan proposed by Iran is the starting point for talks to resolve their conflict, calling it “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” wsj.com/world/middle-e…

@TroyTeslike @TSLAFanMtl Your usual gap is smaller than Consensus, but this time was much bigger. Why do you think that was? Did you do anything different this time vs your prior analysis?

Unfortunately, Tesla missed expectations this time. Actual deliveries were below both my estimate and the analyst consensus. The 50,363-unit gap between production and deliveries was unusually large, suggesting weaker demand in the US. Estimates vs Actual: 390,000 - @TSLAFanMtl 382,000 - @FutureAZA 377,251 - @ICannot_Enough 377,000 - @garyblack00 375,000 - @TroyTeslike 375,000 - @CuriousPejjy 372,000- @grok 365,645 - Analyst consensus 358,023 - Actual Deliveries

Hi everyone. Here are the final Tesla delivery estimates for Q1 2026: • My estimate: 375,000 • Analyst consensus: 365,645 (based on Tesla’s survey of 23 analysts, known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, published on Mar 26) Last year, Q1 deliveries were 336,681 units, unusually low because of the Model Y Juniper transition. It’s a low bar to clear, though it’s still unclear whether full-year deliveries will exceed 2025.

@canoebrookbl I read the article. He helps healthcare. Whats the big deal?

John Arnold: The Most Powerful Man in Healthcare Nobody has Ever Heard Of. “If we want to attack an issue, we will do whatever it takes.” The casualties of his attacks are rare disease patients, HD, SCA; companies like $qure, $bhvn. This scary spider web thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2026/01/3…

ohh okay got it. Well, I looked at this CLS, tiny sweedish co, ($1.8M LTM revenues). They have no leverage here. I think you guys are making something out of nothing. I actually thought the quarter was pretty solid. There are a bunch of one-time costs from the IRRAS deal hitting the P&L that should roll off. Yeah, cash burn is still high, but it’s a growth story. And the deal looks pretty attractive — strong revenue and real cost synergies ahead.

@loopCapital1 @Londonfieldsboy This is about CLS and clearpoint, clearpoint doesn’t own them, they have an ongoing relationship. The purchase was Irraflow, different product.

$clpt conference call thoughts Q4 was trash Guide down in 26 25 human trials 13 programs in fast track/rmat or BTD 8 different disease types Joe mentioned glp ready by 2nd half Prior largest study was 2 million, couple calls ago said bidding on 5x that, now says a study can be worth 15-20 million Reason for guide down, was baking in some rgx 121 sales and switched some European stuff with Irraflow. Personally, not sure I really buy that reasoning, don’t know if I would have been baking in rgx 121 sales. Overall, not thesis breaking, never been in this for core business, pretty disappointing on the guide down, 13 programs in expedited review is pretty solid but nonetheless this type of stuff isn’t happening tomorrow. Overall, core business needs to do better but I think glp is coming on much later than they expected since they had been talking about being ready earlier imo. It is what it is at this point.

@mike98572986 @Londonfieldsboy but they already closed the transaction. Why would there be any negotiation post-close? that something you do before, no?

@loopCapital1 @Londonfieldsboy Think there is some conversation around one side might want better terms, hard to say exactly what is going on but seems like possibly CLS thinks they should get better terms. Just going off the presentation CLS gave after the last quarter

@Londonfieldsboy @mike98572986 Can you elaborate what you mean they don’t agree on the comp? Where did you see that

@mike98572986 Hope they come to an agreement. Seems good tech, and a good fit.

@stats_feed I dunno where you buy yours eggs for $4. Mine aren’t for less than $7

Price of 12 eggs (USD) 🥚 1．🇮🇳 India - $0.91 2．🇮🇷 Iran - $1.10 3．🇧🇩 Bangladesh - $1.17 4．🇵🇰 Pakistan - $1.19 5．🇻🇳 Vietnam - $1.49 6．🇮🇩 Indonesia - $1.53 7．🇧🇾 Belarus - $1.60 8．🇨🇳 China - $1.60 9．🇺🇿 Uzbekistan - $1.68 10．🇰🇿 Kazakhstan - $1.71 11．🇷🇺 Russia - $1.73 12．🇮🇶 Iraq - $1.75 13．🇽🇰 Kosovo - $1.77 14．🇺🇦 Ukraine - $1.78 15．🇲🇽 Mexico - $2.57 16．🇧🇷 Brazil - $2.19 17．🇨🇴 Colombia - $2.25 18．🇲🇰 North Macedonia - $2.26 19．🇲🇩 Moldova - $2.43 20．🇷🇸 Serbia - $2.62 21．🇵🇪 Peru - $2.67 22．🇵🇦 Panama - $2.68 23．🇦🇷 Argentina - $2.79 24．🇻🇪 Venezuela - $2.82 25．🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina - $2.82 26．🇪🇪 Estonia - $2.90 27．🇰🇷 South Korea - $2.87 28．🇱🇹 Lithuania - $3.25 29．🇲🇪 Montenegro - $3.26 30．🇪🇸 Spain - $3.27 31．🇭🇺 Hungary - $3.34 32．🇵🇹 Portugal - $3.37 33．🇱🇻 Latvia - $3.37 34．🇷🇴 Romania - $3.38 35．🇨🇿 Czech Republic - $3.43 36．🇧🇬 Bulgaria - $3.45 37．🇫🇮 Finland - $3.52 38．🇵🇱 Poland - $3.56 39．🇨🇦 Canada - $3.57 40．🇦🇱 Albania - $3.82 41．🇭🇷 Croatia - $3.87 42．🇩🇪 Germany - $3.88 43．🇸🇮 Slovenia - $3.90 44．🇲🇹 Malta - $3.92 45．🇸🇰 Slovakia - $3.92 46．🇬🇧 United Kingdom - $3.99 47．🇧🇪 Belgium - $4.11 48．🇮🇹 Italy - $4.23 49．🇮🇪 Ireland - $4.33 50．🇺🇸 United States - $4.39 51．🇫🇷 France - $4.37 52．🇬🇷 Greece - $4.51 53．🇸🇪 Sweden - $4.54 54．🇦🇹 Austria - $4.87 55．🇳🇴 Norway - $4.89 56．🇱🇺 Luxembourg - $4.89 57．🇳🇱 Netherlands - $5.00 58．🇩🇰 Denmark - $5.07 59．🇨🇭 Switzerland - $7.91 Source: Numbeo

@0xGeeGee @aleabitoreddit Indeed

@loopCapital1 @aleabitoreddit surely the long $MOH did some damage to the stats

There was a very interesting piece on external Subscription newsletters. Someone on Reddit spent $9,600/year on the top 23 authors and compared their returns: Since the start of the year: Michael Burry: 24 calls (eg. $PLTR) - 60d avg return -11.1% for $415/Year, they lost -11% over the past 2 months. Top Authors by 60d Avg Return: 1. Global Tech Research: +26.7% (50 calls) 2. SemiAnalysis: +16.7% (80 calls) 3. Fabricated Knowledge: +14.2% (50 calls) 4. Altay Capital: +13.7% (15 calls) 5. Doomberg: +12.6% (79 calls) 6. Paulo Macro: +12.1% (21 calls) 7. Macro Charts: +11.1% (72 calls) 8. The Setup Factory: +10.8% (285 calls) 9. The Overshoot: +9.6% (24 calls) 10. TicToc Trading: +8.9% (180 calls) The other 12 were performed worst. And at the very bottom: Michael J Burry: -11.1% (24 calls) for $415/year. Moral of the story: There's genuine analysis out there from places like SemiAnalysis. But maybe don't pay hundreds of dollars for others, just to vastly underperform. Most of the authors I've been tracking on X have strongly beat any subscription sellers. A lot of the alpha is free on X.

That's fair. But ok, you use the software yourself right? so, isn't there things you can now do with AI, like 3d renderings, that used to take hours before? I know some architects are connecting claude code with Revit, to automate 3D modeling structures, at least to kickstart projects. So imagine what these tools will do 1 year from now. Yes, people will still need Autodesk, it's not a 1:1 substitution, but firms won't need as many licenses to do the same amount of work or won't grow seat base. That's the issue with these SaaS names.

@loopCapital1 Yes, my bias is so strong that I posted I am “starting to get interested.” That was my least definitive post ever 😂

$ADSK There might be alpha in the fact that finance bros are not familiar with the software and its dominance in the construction industry. I include myself in that but starting to get more interested. Any input is appreciated.

@jukan05 I hear you, but memory historically very cyclical—deserves lower multiple. And isn’t Nvidia and Google starting to design new chips w/o (or with much less) DRAM?

Samsung could become the most profitable company in the world in 2027, and yet its market cap is still under $1 trillion!

@Rom_Alvarado11 The only thing I can think of is that they must know their EV backlog and delivery units will be weak, so they might be acquiring to consolidated and add those EV units to reported numbers. This JV only makes type A buses which are <5% of the market. I don't get it either

@loopCapital1 And the worst of it is that it was 50% equity financed… didn’t understand this move honestly and im a shareholder

What a way to destroy capital. $BLBD is acquiring 50% of Micro Bird at 20x earnings. A biz with 5% net margins, and declined earnings by -11% in Fy25. (vs Blue Bird 8.6% net margins in Fy25, now valued at 12x). They're already integrated, so no synergies. Here's Micro Bird PnL

@aleabitoreddit @michaeljburry @aleabitoreddit what fundamentals? A co with >100x earnings multiple, higher mix of govt revs (which warrants a lower multiple), and while they benefit in AI today, Tomorrow is a big question mark.

@michaeljburry Now I’m convinced this guy just got lucky shorting the top after seeing his posted chart for $PLTR. Zero mentions of fundamentals, just cited an shampoo TA for the reason of $PLTR crashing. I don’t own Palantir but this is just astrology.

I am working on something $PLTR.

@MaMoMVPY Show the entire video

THIS is the US. Americans maybe you should get your act together and have this man removed. It is shameful.

@michaeljburry Maybe you are just missing the point that there is too much fat in healthcare and its concentrated in govt programs that $MOH is 100% exposed to.

Molina Healthcare: Ghosts of GEICO Past "In 1974, however, GEICO started selling auto insurance to the public. With almost no actuarial experience, GEICO’s pricing was a guess and turned out to be too low. A frustratingly common problem in the insurance industry. This poorly informed underwriting dove-tailed with the high inflation environment and a new law forcing GEICO to take on high-risk drivers. The perfect storm sank GEICO in 1975 and into 1976, and ultimately provided the opportunity for Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway to swoop in. Buffett likes to say he bought GEICO three times – in 1951 as a student, in 1976 with Berkshire Hathaway, and 1996 when Berkshire Hathaway fully acquired GEICO. The whole saga is a testament to good analysis and patience. With that, here in 2025, I present Molina Healthcare." $MOH open.substack.com/pub/michaeljbu…

@krassenstein Stop being a wuss. Funny you also clipped only this part instead of the whole video

BREAKING: Our RACIST President just posted a video which depicts Barack and Michelle Obama as Apes. But I’m sure MAGA will tell us it’s the black people who are the real racist ones and that we need to do seeing about that. When is enough enough? When can you all admit that you voted for a terrible human being?

$BLBD beat FQ1, but quietly took down ⤵️ earnings guide by -5% for Q2 and Q3. Yet, the sell side morons didn't even notice (or don't want to tell you) 🚩🚩🚩