
lordZet
1.4K posts

lordZet
@lord5et
Engineer, @polymarket superuser, conditional tokens investor


Suppose I want to pay ~$100-500 to subsidize a prediction market on a specific question I have, with the goal of getting as accurate a probability estimate as possible. What is the best turnkey way for me to do that today?





1/ A Valuation of Polymarket (POLY) March 7: @Polymarket was reportedly seeking a $20 billion valuation March 19: @Kalshi raised at $22 billion valuation A $POLY token and airdrop are confirmed. The central question is whether the $20 billion reflects reasonable expectations for future fee generation, or whether the market is mispricing the opportunity. My latest @MessariCrypto report builds a ground-up valuation to find out. Let's break it down 🧵





Today I crossed $50k PnL on Polymarket, all within the first 83 days of 2026! 🤯 I ran this up from a $4k total balance (and a -$2k drawdown). I didn't get lucky on one massive swing—my biggest unhedged win was only around $3.5k. The secret was just taking minimal risk, finding high EV plays, and letting the small wins compound over time. The profits are incredibly rewarding, but the best gift has been the network. Discussing ideas with smart people is the greatest alpha a struggling trader can get. I owe a huge debt of gratitude to all the friends and partners I've made —you guys are legends. @aenews - Great trader who literally runs a couple of niches as the RAIDBOSS, learnt a lot from his thinking process and bouncing ideas. @CarOnPolymarket - Amazing vibes trader, its almost as if he knows which way the book is gonna move ahead of time. @ProThonker - UMA legend, helped me learn the "process" of UMA the best. cashy/denizz - Middle East experts, the Lebanon market was so fun discussing ideas and criterion! And all my SHARP close friends: @theta_thunberg , @EpsilonPM , @0xinfringe, @GollumGekko1 and others who might have missed... My biggest regret? Not sizing up more into high-conviction plays. It’s psychologically hard with a smaller bankroll, but that's my main focus for the next level. It’s been an insane 3 months of learning. If I can do this, anyone can. 🤝📈 NEXT TARGET🎯: 100k by EoM May.













