Kelvin Low
851 posts


@benjamincowen Vitalik did mention if we cont to use crypto as a gambling tools, there is no future for it. I agreed. The scam, the p&d has make crypto sound like a joke. No future except for scam
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I did not turn my back on the altcoin market.
The altcoin market turned its back on me when it became nothing more than useless memecoin slop.
The KOLs that go around saying I am "anti-crypto" don't even know what crypto used to be before they joined.
It used to be exciting and felt like innovation was actually happening.
Then these new guys joined and just shilled memecoins non-stop and innovation practically grinded to a halt.
Now all people care about are shilling memecoins, strategic reserves and ETFs.
What ever happened to changing the world?
Now they act like I am the bad guy for saying memecoins should go to zero.
Crypto is not what it used to be, but one day I think it can return to that.
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Kelvin Low retweetledi

@DeFi_Made_Here If team leave, who will manage the protocol? The DAO has no ficking idea how to code or even manage the protocol. How can we as a token holder ensure that the protocol will be well manage with new teams. The incentive for the new team might not even be inline with the DAO
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AAVE token alignment discussion is bad for the Aave DAO short term (investors are confused, token is down, misalignment between service providers, etc), but it is great for the DAO and industry long term.
DAO will surely get the IP rights back and won't end up in a situation where they have no control over the future revenue streams. At the same time, ecosystem investors are now being forced to ask fundamental questions about what exactly they are buying, and what rights the token actually represents.
That being said, I think Stani has a real prisoner's dilemma. After the Labs are forced to transfer the IP rights, he will end up in a situation where his equity loses the revenue and valuation. Will Stani accept it for the benefit of Aave, or instead pursue the path that maximizes value for himself/Labs?
Given there is a history of Labs trying to get the most value for themselves (interface fees, Horizon revenue cut + new token, aave app ownership, etc), and misalignment between v4 and v3, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where Aave Labs ultimately exits the DAO. In fact, Labs team members have already publicly stated that they would leave the DAO if this proposal passes.
Hypothetically, Labs can try to exchange the v4 codebase ownership for Aave IP rights and start all over again with v4, Lens, Horizon, Aave app (will be a new name ofc), new token, etc. Basically, Labs has everything, including team, money, multiple products, experience, influence, etc, but does not have TVL for v4. And since there was a public discussion on the forum that DAO is not planning to migrate v3 liquidity to v4, and these will be 2 separate protocols (at least short to mid term), TVL is not guaranteed for v4 within the Aave ecosystem either.
If Labs separates and launches a new token for all of their products, I bet they will make $1B+ out of it. The question is whether Labs is ready to swallow the IP rights takeover and keep on contributing to the DAO despite diminished control, influence, and ego for the benefit of Aave, or whether they are ready to start over again with a new brand, new vision, and full control over the protocol.
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THE $48 BILLION MATH ERROR
Strategy Inc. just disclosed something extraordinary. They own 649,870 Bitcoin. That is 3.26 percent of every Bitcoin that will ever exist. Total cost: $48.37 billion.
They also disclosed the numbers that prove this cannot survive the next 90 days.
Here is the accounting reality they published but nobody is reading correctly.
Strategy has $54 million in cash. They owe $700 million per year in preferred stock dividends. Their software business generates negative cash flow. To pay dividends, they must raise $700 million in new capital every single year before buying a single additional Bitcoin.
They raised $19.5 billion in the first nine months of 2025. That money did not go to new Bitcoin purchases. It went to service the debt from previous capital raises. This is Ponzi finance by definition: borrowing to pay the interest on prior borrowing.
The machine only worked because their stock traded above the value of underlying Bitcoin. When shares traded at 2x net asset value, issuing equity increased Bitcoin per share for existing holders. That premium collapsed to 1.0x in November 2025. Issuing equity now dilutes shareholders. The recursive accumulation loop stopped functioning.
The preferred stock makes it worse. STRC started at 9.0 percent dividend rate in July. Management raised it to 10.5 percent by November. Every time the stock falls below $100, they increase the dividend to attract buyers. There is no ceiling. If confidence breaks, the dividend spirals until they cannot pay without selling Bitcoin. Selling Bitcoin destroys the thesis that justified the accumulation.
January 15, 2026 is the date that decides everything. MSCI announces whether companies with over 50 percent of assets in digital currencies get excluded from indices. Strategy is 77 percent Bitcoin. Exclusion is not discretionary. It is mechanical. JPMorgan estimates $2.8 billion in forced selling from index funds. Total outflows could reach $8.8 billion.
Fifteen to twenty percent of market cap liquidated by algorithms that do not care about fundamentals.
The October 10 crash was the preview. When Bitcoin fell 17 percent, order books collapsed 90 percent and $19 billion in positions liquidated in 14 hours. Strategy holds 3.26 percent of total supply. If they are forced to sell 100,000 Bitcoin to meet obligations, there is no liquidity to absorb it without breaking the market.
Strategy claims 71 years of dividend coverage. The math assumes they can sell $1 billion of Bitcoin annually without moving the price. October 10 proved that assumption is false. The market cannot absorb sovereign-scale selling during stress.
This is not about whether Bitcoin succeeds. Bitcoin will outlive Strategy Inc. This is about whether corporations can hold sovereign monetary reserves using quarterly refinancing and monthly dividend obligations. Sovereigns operate on infinite time horizons. Corporations operate on 90-day cycles.
By March 2026, the market delivers its verdict. Either Strategy restructures, shrinks, and survives diminished, or the entire corporate Bitcoin treasury model ends as a failed experiment. The timeline is exact. The mechanics are observable. The resolution is unavoidable.
What happens in the next 90 days will define corporate finance and monetary competition for the next 50 years. The numbers are already published. The outcome is already determined. Only the recognition remains.
Read the full deep dive analysis here - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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@JacobKinge If you are so confident about it, please shot it with 50x leverage with your whole wealth with conviction. Screenshot ur proof and I will believe you
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Bitcoin has never in its entire history crashed this hard and then recovered into a bull market.
The maxis will cry and deny it all the way down to 10K and lower, but the truth is that Bitcoin is in a bear market.
It will drag on for multiple years, the entire bull run will be erased, MicroStrategy will be forced to liquidate its holdings, ETFs will be delisted and shut down, and the network will contract significantly.
Bitcoin is a failure, and we have been warning everyone for months. Now everything we predicted is happening. Unlike others, I actually researched BTC, understand what it is, can see beyond the noise, and can see how the entire system was propped up by fraud and driven by false narratives.
I’ve said it at 120K, 110K, 100K, 90K, and now I’ll say it again at 80K, we’re still VERY early in this bear market. Things will go below 70K, 60K, 50K, 40K, 30K, etc! It’s only a matter of time.
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@Wuhuoqiu Once they collected enough, they will push the price and it will never come back to 90-100k forcing the old player to be wash out or fomo back and buy higher
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@Wuhuoqiu Biggest pain is for old player selling and take profit now while they hope to buy back at lower price. MM and institution all know, so they will hold the price tard 90-100k and wash out all ppl
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Due to significant market fluctuations over the past 16 hours and a substantial influx of users, some users have encountered issues with their transactions. I deeply apologize for this. If you have incurred losses attributable to Binance, please contact our customer service to register your case. We will review your account activity individually, analyze the situation, and provide compensation accordingly. However, losses resulting from market fluctuations and unrealized profits are not eligible for compensation.
The reason Binance is Binance is that we never shy away from problems. When we fall short, we take responsibility—there are no excuses or justifications. We are committed to serving every user to the best of our ability, and we will manage what we are responsible for.
The market remains volatile at present, so please be mindful of investment risks.
由于过去16小时内市场波动较大,涌入用户过多,部分用户在交易中遇到问题,我感到非常抱歉。对于币安原因导致的亏损可以联系客服登记,我们将逐一核对你的账号行为进行分析裁决赔付,需要一些时间,但对于市场波动带来的亏损及未实现盈利不在赔付范畴。
币安之所以是币安是因为我们从来不逃避问题,做得不好的立正挨打,有多少用户就应该能服务好多少用户,没有理由和借口,我们该管的部分一定会管。
当前市场仍在波动期,请大家防范投资风险。
Binance@binance
Update on USDE, BNSOL, and WBETH price depeg and next steps 👉 binance.com/en/support/ann…
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@Vivek4real_ Trump has rug us all, nothing about buying btc as reserve
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Guys, I've just woken up, and I'm getting the complete breakdown of what's going on. There was a massive forced liquidation from a large OM investor on a CEX. Still working on the details, but we are here, and we're fixing this.
Thanks for the understanding. 🫡🕉️
MANTRA | The EVM L1 for RWAs@MANTRA_Chain
MANTRA community - we want to assure you that MANTRA is fundamentally strong. Today’s activity was triggered by reckless liquidations, not anything to do with the project. One thing we want to be clear on: this was not our team. We are looking into it and will share more details about what happened as soon as we can.
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@BritishHodl 15k a month you say he is struggling. Omg. In sg there are ppl who only earn $800 sgd
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I have a guy I met here in Dubai, who has $4m in Bitcoin in cold storage.
And struggles to earn money (roughly $15,000 a month) through consulting and coding to make sure he HODL's his stack and doesn't need to sell.
His family literally lives a sub-par life despite being a multi-millionaire so that he can HODL.
One conversation later and an introduction to Charles Schwab and an OTC desk.
He moved $400,000 into MSTY at $19.90 a share (20,100 shares).
So now he has $3.6m in Bitcoin in Cold Storage.
And just had $26,845 dropped into his account after yesterday's dividend.
So, his income has just gone from $15,000 a month to a total of $41,845 this month.
And that 10% will continue to grow faster than the Trad-Fi benchmark of QQQ and will probably grow at 30-40% of MSTR's CAGR if he continues to pull out the dividend.
Do you think he has a higher chance of HODLing the rest of that stack forever now or before when he was struggling?
This is the use case.
Having so many of these conversations.
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Michael Saylor says, "It’s not debt, it’s convertible debt. #Bitcoin could go from $100K to $1K, the debt is not going to get called, there is no recourse.”
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@Ashcryptoreal If bitcoin is digital gold as perceived it should rise, but think ppl perceived it as stock tech instead
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Bybit hackers have laundered 89,500 ETH (worth about $224 million) in the past 2.5 days, accounting for 18% of the total amount of ETH stolen (499,000), according to @EmberCN. Hhackers expect to be able to exchange the remaining 410,000 ETH into other assets (such as BTC, DAI, etc.) within half a month. Currently, hackers mainly use THORChain for cross-chain asset exchange. x.com/EmberCN/status…
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