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Listening Post

@lstnpst

Always Listening

Back Row Katılım Haziran 2024
194 Takip Edilen5 Takipçiler
Listening Post
Listening Post@lstnpst·
To be fair, the "clarification" didn't change any rules. It commented on the existing ones. The contract clearly and originally noted that resolution was through the disclosure (or non-disclosure) of specific information. Disclosure deadline of May 31 is both explicit (they didn't hide the timeframe or requirements) and implied (bc otherwise you would need to unreasonably assume an open-ended undefined contract that could theoretically never resolve). As for allowing trading after May 31 (seemingly your main gripe)...maybe a poor administrative decision but it didn't actually impact any stated rules or change the substance of the contract. Regardless of when they settle, it all hinges on disclosure by the end of May 31. You were essentially betting on yesterday's weather. You got jammed up. Definitely a rough one.
willo2@willo2_Poly

I was just scammed for $500K by Polymarket. I am "willo2", the top holder of YES on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st". Here's what happened:

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Listening Post
Listening Post@lstnpst·
@MartinShkreli @tunguz Good chance the drug isn't the proximate cause. Likely associated with weight loss, lower sugar/carb intake, etc.
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Bojan Tunguz
Bojan Tunguz@tunguz·
Absolutely incredible. This from a drug that was *not* designed to attack tumors. Far more impactful than almost any other single treatment we’ve tried over the last few decades. Imagine what could happen when we actively start fine tuning it for cancer treatment.
Avi Roy@agingroy

Eli Lilly released retatrutide Phase 3 data yesterday. 28% weight loss in 80 weeks. The most powerful obesity drug that’s ever been tested. And today the cancer signal drops. 12,112 patients. Seven tumor types. GLP-1 users had half the lung cancer metastasis rate (10% vs 22%). Breast cancer: 43% cut. Colon cancer five-year mortality in a separate study: 15.5% vs 37.1%. Cancer joins a list that already includes heart disease (SELECT, 20% MACE reduction), kidney failure (FLOW, 24% slower decline), sleep apnea (SURMOUNT-OSA, FDA-approved), addiction (BMJ, 600K veterans, 18-25% reduction across substances), and liver disease (86% fat clearance). Tumors express GLP-1 receptors. Activate them and NF-kB drops, apoptosis rises. The drug isn’t just shrinking fat. It’s talking directly to the cancer. One drug class. Designed for blood sugar. The biology keeps finding uses the designers didn’t predict.

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Listening Post
Listening Post@lstnpst·
@SullyCNBC If your friend has a 3% effective fed tax rate he either makes no money or is wildly wealthy.
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Brian Sullivan
Brian Sullivan@SullyCNBC·
To be fair, many smart people don’t fully understand taxes and effective (post deduction) tax rates. Years ago a friend was arguing with me that he paid “25% in federal income taxes .. a higher rate than Warren Buffett” Roughly knowing his economic situation, I told him that after deductions he prob pays about 5% .. and if he paid more he needs a new tax preparer. He got all huffy until his wife - who actually did their taxes - confirmed their after deduction federal income tax rate was 3% Not only is there a lot of confusion around effective tax rates, but there’s also some misinformation always out there because people confuse or combine fed income tax rates with state, Social Security and Medicare taxes. You don’t have to believe me. The nonpartisan @TaxFoundation has done great work on this.
Jeff Bezos@JeffBezos

Please do a quick read of this. It’s short, well written, and will remove a bit of wool from over your eyes.

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Aakash Gupta
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta·
Universities had 17 years of warning. They responded by doing the opposite of what the math demanded. In 2008, American birth rates fell off a cliff. The Great Recession made people stop having kids. Those never-born children would be turning 18 right now. The number of U.S. high school graduates peaked at roughly 3.9 million in 2025. By 2029, that number drops 15%. By 2041, it drops by nearly half a million students per year. Every school in this tweet had access to the same Census data. They all saw the same curve. Administrative positions at U.S. colleges grew 60% between 1993 and 2009, ten times the rate of tenured faculty growth. Non-instructional spending (student services, administration) grew 29% from 2010 to 2018. Instructional spending grew 17%. Average tuition at public four-year schools went from $3,500 in 2000 to $10,560 in 2023. Yale now has more administrators than undergraduate students. 5,460 administrators for fewer than 5,000 undergrads. They built the cost structure of a growth company on top of a customer base that was mathematically guaranteed to shrink. The split in this data tells you everything. Clemson, Syracuse, Duke, UNC, and Indiana are all cutting because the model broke. Alabama, Ole Miss, and the University of Florida are turning away more applicants than ever. Harvard gets five applications for every spot. The middle is where the cliff hits. Elite schools absorb demand. Everyone between elite and community college fights over a shrinking pool. The Fed published a study in December 2024 predicting 80 colleges will close in the next five years. Since 2016, over 100 already have. In 2024 alone, 28 shut down. One per week. These program cuts and layoffs are a decade late. The birth rate data was sitting in Census spreadsheets the entire time. Everyone in higher education administration saw the enrollment cliff coming. They hired more administrators anyway.
Anthony Bradley@drantbradley

Clemson is $1.5B in debt. Syracuse is closing or pausing 93 programs, UNC-Chapel Hill plans to cut spending by $89M over 3 years. Duke recently let 600 employees go in a $350M budget cut. Indiana public colleges announced a plan to eliminate or merge 580 programs statewide.

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Listening Post
Listening Post@lstnpst·
@John_Hempton 3.1 Pro is being phased out. 3.5 Flash is now the default model. Faster and supposedly better than 3.1 Pro at many tasks. 3.5 Pro soon.
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John_Hempton
John_Hempton@John_Hempton·
This is from Gemini. I get this message infrequently: Pro is in high demand at the moment Another model was used for this response. This didn't count towards your limit.
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Listening Post
Listening Post@lstnpst·
@JerryCap Vast majority of jobs require less than a 6th grade education. Small chunk requires up to 9th grade. Only a tiny fraction require anything above that. Formal general education is more often a badge or filter rather than a direct comment on whether someone can do XYZ job.
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Jerry Capital
Jerry Capital@JerryCap·
The world functions (not talking politics) by ppl who can't do grade 8 math. "Data suggests that roughly 50% of adults function below the numeracy levels expected by the end of middle school." What does this mean for AI?
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Listening Post
Listening Post@lstnpst·
$HIMX (12-Mar, long) t+0 to t+5 : CAR (v. SPY) (-0.01%) MDD (-28.9%) t+0 to t+30: CAR (v. SPY) +25.2% MDD (-38.6%) $DDOG (30-Apr, long) t+0 to t+5: CAR (v. SPY) +36.8% MDD (-9.6%) t+0 to t+11 (today): CAR (v. SPY) +44.2% MDD (-9.6%) Firm-wide (all completed US calls, long/short, t+0 to t+30): CAR (v. SPY) (-1%) MDD (-23.9%)
Hunterbrook@hntrbrkmedia

Datadog. Czechoslovak Group. Himax. We’ve published a dozen articles over the past 3 months—from a petrochemical giant in Texas to a hidden photonics supplier in Taiwan. Our mission: pioneering a new model to fund investigative journalism.

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Listening Post
Listening Post@lstnpst·
t+0 - t+3: CAR (-31.6%) MDD (-27.8%)
Fugazi Research@FugaziResearch

We just published a short report on $CUE $368.5M in accumulated losses, ZERO products ever sold and a CEO compensation package that costs more than the company's entire forward contracted revenue. The Q4 2025 revenue spike was one licensing payment, that is already gone. A sharp correction is not a prediction but a structural inevitability. Click for our full report ⬇️ fugaziresearch.com/p/cue-reverse-…

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Keşfet

@WolfpackReports @BearCaveEmail @MartinShkreli @tunguz @SullyCNBC @TaxFoundation @aakashgupta @John_Hempton