luiz fernando roxo

Quem é o responsável pela arruaça que acontece naquela festa cheia de adolescentes bêbados? Os adolescentes, ou o adulto que disponibilizou a bebida alcoólica pra eles?

45 LIÇÕES DE RICHARD RYTENBAND Doeu muito escrever isso. A saudade do meu amigo e mestre já é um vazio que nada preenche. Para tentar lidar com a dor dessa despedida precoce, reuni 45 lições que o Richard nos deixou, uma para cada ano de sua vida. É a forma que encontrei de manter a sua voz viva. Leiam com o coração👇

Eu compilei o saldo de empregos líquido por faixa de renda, jan/23-dez/25. O legado do Fernando Haddad é uma pauperização extrema do brasileiro.

The BOJ spent $90BN to push USDJPY from 160 to 157. See you at 170

45 LIÇÕES DE RICHARD RYTENBAND Doeu muito escrever isso. A saudade do meu amigo e mestre já é um vazio que nada preenche. Para tentar lidar com a dor dessa despedida precoce, reuni 45 lições que o Richard nos deixou, uma para cada ano de sua vida. É a forma que encontrei de manter a sua voz viva. Leiam com o coração👇

The Federal Reserve's credit expansion from 1924 to 1929 created the most spectacular artificial boom in American history—and set up the most devastating crash. Fed officials slashed interest rates and pumped money into the banking system, driving rates below what the free market would have set. This wasn't prosperity. This was monetary manipulation on an industrial scale. The numbers tell the story. The Fed increased the money supply by roughly 60% between 1921 and 1929. Bank credit expanded from $31 billion to $58 billion. Stock prices tripled. Real estate soared. Everyone thought they were financial geniuses, but they were riding a wave of artificially cheap credit that made every malinvestment look profitable. Austrian theory predicted exactly what happened next. When you artificially lower interest rates, you distort the natural coordination between saving and investment. Entrepreneurs launch projects that only appear viable because of manipulated price signals. Resources flow into unsustainable ventures—overbuilding in real estate, overexpansion in manufacturing, speculation in stocks. The boom feels real because people are working and spending, but the foundation rests on monetary quicksand. The crash wasn't a random market failure or capitalist excess. The crash was the market's inevitable correction of Fed-induced distortions. Every artificially stimulated investment had to be liquidated. Every misallocated resource had to find its proper use. Every worker employed in bubble industries had to transition to genuine wealth-creating activities. The pain was proportional to the prior manipulation. Modern economists still blame the free market for 1929 while praising the very institution that caused the disaster. They learned nothing from the greatest economic lesson in American history.

Trocando em miúdos, o que o lendário investidor Paul Tudor Jones (tanto quanto Buffett) está dizendo é que a hora é de ficar em caixa.

Como ensinava Taleb: a sorte é a grande equalizadora. Nenhum de nós merece nada. Não há certeza de nada neste mundo, apenas probabilidades.

The global debt crisis is set to get even worse: Total sovereign and corporate bond issuance is estimated to rise to a record $28.8 trillion in 2026. That would mark the 4th consecutive annual increase and would also DOUBLE the average pre-pandemic levels. Corporate debt issuance is set to surge to a record $6.9 trillion, while government debt issuance is expected to rise to $21.9 trillion, also an all-time high. By comparison, governments and corporates issued $23.7 trillion of debt in 2020, during the pandemic. As a percentage of GDP, global issuance is expected to increase to 23.3%, the 2nd-highest on record, only behind the 27.5% peak during the pandemic in 2020. To put this into perspective, the 2008 Financial Crisis peak was 21.4%. The world is borrowing ABOVE crisis levels.