Macro Guru

$UPST macro setup being mispriced. Kalshi odds now imply 40% chance of no Fed cuts before 2027 But reality: Unemployment creeping toward 4.5%+ One macro shift → those odds flip quickly When rate-cut bets reprice → lending cycle turns → $UPST rerates hard.

$SOFI vs $UPST — market mismatch $SOFI EPS $0.13, trading ~22x $UPST EPS $4.0 est trading ~8x fwd $UPST generates ~$1.3B of ~$1.4B rev from pure tech platform fees Yes, BS loans exist but declining QoQ Higher growth + cleaner model… yet lower PE? That gap won’t stay open

Revenue re-accelerating ~35% YoY, FCF swinging from ~-$180M → +$345M+, Forward-flow deals stacking $1B+ at a time. Yet market still pricing it like nothing changed. Rerating doesn’t take years here—just weeks. By the time it’s obvious, it’s already repriced. That’s $UPST

Turning point week ahead for $UPST. All signs pointing to a real turnaround. Wishing the entire Upstart family a big week—time to execute.

If you’re skipping $UPST here, you’re likely missing a major setup. Sub-$100M equity base vs $SOFY ~1.4B+ shares — scarcity matters. It doesn’t take much demand to move this. AI lending + growth inflection + operating leverage = $100 stock rerating potential.

LendingTree just showed the weakness: Needs people to shop loans → demand-driven, cyclical, fragile. Upstart is a different beast: Doesn’t need more shoppers If $UPST proves higher approval rates + stable credit + funding momentum next week… UPST = breakout setup

It’s Gu’s moment. Thiel Fellow. Tech outlier. Now possibly the face of the comeback. If numbers land… this won’t be a small move $UPST @paulxgu

$UPST looks primed to shock next week New leadership + Thiel Fellow pedigree + execution track record = rerating brewing Market still stuck valuing it like a $30+ stock.. while setup points toward $100+ Growth re-accelerating, margins improving AI lending tailwinds kicking in

Upstart ripping today isn’t random — it’s a signal. While big fintech names like $AFRM are bleeding, $UPST is getting bought hard. Market doesn’t move like this for no reason… it’s sniffing something BIG for earnings. Strength into weakness = conviction.

Timing of the Fortress deal just proved $UPST ≠ $SOFI Without that $1.25B forward-flow? $UPST probably trades like somewhat $SOFI today 150+ partners already.. But ONE major bank onboarding = game changer That’s when this stops being a story… and starts being a rerating.

Upstart Holdings just locked in a $1.25B forward-flow deal with Fortress Investment Group. Translation: more funding = more loan volume = more revenue throughput. Capital constraint? Getting crushed. Platform scale? About to accelerate. $UPST

$SOFI prints +40% growth, record loans… stock drops. Expect > results. $UPST is setting up differently: $320M+ quarterly rev run-rate → ~$1.41B+ 35% CAGR → ~$2B+ in ~3 yrs FCF swing: -$185M → +$400M+ Same fintech lane. Different math. $UPST doesn’t grind… it squeezes.

All indications point to a sharp upside beat for $UPST earnings on May 5. Consensus: $0.39 EPS & ~$300M revenue Improving credit trends + AI lending momentum = strong setup. Stock currently ~$33. Double-digit gains post-earnings are very likely. Avg analyst PT: $55

Selling $UPST just because software is weak on Iran-war headlines? @Upstart isn’t Ent software — it’s driven by consumer strength, credit performance, and funding Platform still scaling 35% CAGR, while the stock is already crushed from $80s Different beast. Trade it like one

@HarryKay_ @John_Hempton Klarna is building a beast of a merchant network (1M+). The only thing standing between them and a multi-bagger return is reducing loan losses. They crack the credit risk code, it's game over.

@John_Hempton Rubrik, AbCellera, Hims; currently monitoring Guardant, Klarna, Lemonade

Upstart is my most contrarian position to date. I've never come across a more misunderstood company, with a deeper asymmetry, than $UPST. And this is coming from an early Palantir $PLTR and Rocket Lab $RKLB investor! Stay tuned for my debut article - follow and subscribe to my Substack! -> @harrykay" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@harrykay

$UPST moving with software stocks makes zero sense. This platform is massive for next-gen AI lending models — not software It’s an AI-driven credit marketplace tied to rates, funding, and loan demand. This is a fintech + macro play, not a “multiple expansion on cloud” story

A $1.2B multi-year FFA with Centerbridge Partners isn’t just capital — it’s elite credit validation. This means $UPST: • Stable, recurring loan demand • Less ER volatility • Faster scale without BS risk. When a top-tier credit player commits like this you pay attention.

$UPST just locked in a MAJOR win ! Multi-year $1.2B forward-flow deal with Centerbridge Partners one of the most respected credit investors in the game. This isn’t just funding… it’s VALIDATION. Deep-pocketed institutional backing + consistent loan demand = stronger volumes

Most people haven’t actually run the EPS math on @Upstart… 🤯 EPS ramp (est): 2025 → ~$0.80 2026 → ~$2.20 2027 → ~$3.80+ That’s ~35%+ CAGR. Slap even a conservative 18–20x multiple on 2027… and the upside gets real fast. Market’s not pricing this in. $UPST

Kevin Warsh just cracked the door open: rate cuts in 2026 on AI-driven productivity. Cheaper money = rocket fuel for AI lenders. Odds of a $UPST rebound just jumped — hard. Tailwinds are stacking. 🚀 @Upstart”