Mac Wagner
5.7K posts


@JacksonCollier 100%. Bummer to go out like this but AZ would beat us 9/10 if not 10/10.
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@JohnNaborsShow Refs put on a show. Didn’t decide outcome of game but still.
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Seems like the tone for a major part of this game was set right here.
John Nabors@JohnNaborsShow
Ewin and Brazile both with a foul before 2 minutes into the game. Less than ideal.
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Arizona / Arkansas (San Jose)
The game your CBB casual friend will LOVE. Two Top 5 offenses who both play with a ton of pace even though Arizona is averaging 2.5 less possessions per game over their Last 10 compared to their season-long mark. Hogs have rattled off 9 wins in their last 10, including 7-straight, but their analytical profile paints a slightly different picture
In that stretch, ARK ranks ~100th in Defense because teams have smashed them on the interior to the tune of a 57% 2PD% (313th nationally). Well...enter the (tied for) lowest P5 3PRate in the country whose entire lineup sans Dell'Orso hammers the rim & the Cats are the much bigger team in a game where so much will occur in the paint on both sides
Even though the SEC lacked multiple elite teams like the B12/B10, they do have one team who is highly relevant to this matchup. The only team Arkansas lost to during that stretch? Florida, arguably the closest Arizona comp in the entire country and certainly within the SEC. Arkansas did NOT hold up well in that matchup. Florida grabbed 48% of their misses, shot 62% inside the arc, and held the Hogs to 14-32 on layups. Not only that, but Brazile was limited to 25 minutes due to fouls, Pringle gave us a Pringle Special and made it all of 11 minutes picking up 4 fouls, and Ewin The Hackbox ended up with 4 himself in 26 minutes.
Then think about the last 5 frontcourts that Arkansas has played. High Point, Hawaii, Vandy, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. 5-straight games against teams with a very feint pulse on the interior. And their numbers still look that poorly during this 9-1 stretch. Now get fed to the Frontcourt Final Boss in Arizona.
Zona has played 10 of their last 12 games under 70 possessions, and the ones that went over were the LIU pounding (71) & the Colorado finale (73). They did play a lot of elite coaches down the stretch, and several matchups were for a second time, which could have artificially deflated Arizona’s tempo numbers. Arkansas will be happy to let them run in this instance, so there is a chance that the Cats tt may be understated
The other huge worry I have with Arkansas is the fact that they are 100th percentile in Points in the Paint per 100 possessions. They obviously struggled to be efficient at the rim against Florida’s length, so it’s tough not to see the Hogs having similar problems in this matchup.
On the other side of the ball, the Hogs' defense is quite literally 0th (zeroeth?) percentile in Points in the Paint Allowed per 100 in the entire country across many different splits. Over the last 10 games, in all conference games...there are multiple ways you can slice the data where Arkansas allows THE highest amount of PITP/100 in the nation. Not sure there are many matchups worse than Arizona in that regard
So realistically, what is Arkansas’ path? Being 316th in 3PRate isn’t the best recipe to spark upsets, neither is their sub-16% defensive TO%. They’re going to get SMASHED in shot volume (although Iowa beating Florida on the glass may have broke the space time continuum in that regard). I don’t know if it really matters how much Acuff scores because it’s hard to see how Arkansas slows down the Cats’ offense. He could score 30+ and Arizona could win by 15-20+ and I wouldn’t be surprised at all. Arkansas' path feels wholly contingent on Zona poor shooting where not only does Acuff have a nuclear game, but you also get multiple efficient 3P shooting outings from Brazile & Thomas. Possible, sure. It just feels like really thin thread of the needle
I haven't bet anything yet in this game, but there are a multitude of things I'm looking at:
>Zona tt over. Don't know how Arkansas slows this offense who just played like complete ass against Utah St and still went over 1.2 PPP. 1.21 PPP at 73 possessions is right at their team total of 88ish. And keep in mind, Zona's L10 tempo stuff may also be somewhat artificially deflating their actual rates/numbers in this matchup against a team with no transition denial defensively
>Krivas o11.5 points Mentioned the Arkansas defense PITP numbers. Krivas could have easily blown by this number against Utah St but was actually very inefficient from the field. Way better matchup on the interior in this one. If Peat/Awaka go nuts, so be it, but this is a CAKE matchup for a S16 game
>Brazile o1.5 3's. Not my favorite but makes complete sense. With Ewin/Pringle up against it on the interior, this might be the best source of Arkansas frontcourt production. Zona's drop will give him a handful of open looks on pick & pops, especially if Acuff starts out inefficient from the field like I think is very possible. It's also a terrible matchup for rim-needy Billy Richmond, likely putting most of Arkansas' offense in the hands of Acuff, Thomas, and Brazile, and likely from the perimeter given the difficulty scoring over Zona's length at the rim
>Ewin unders. Has looked awesome against two midmajors where he's avoided fouls. The lines balloon, now he gets a brutal matchup, and chances are people likely blind bet his overs b/c thats what their computer projections tell them to do. I would tread cautiously. He could foul twice before the first media TO. He could play 30 minutes and just suck. He's a wide range of outcomes guy who is starting to get very pricey in the market in an impossible matchup, especially compared to the last two teams they played
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What goes around comes around, Todd
Florida Gators Men’s Basketball@GatorsMBK
final #GoGators | @WellsFargo
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@MattNorlander Boozer should have 2 fouls right now too. Duke getting all the calls
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Mac Wagner retweetledi

@acebty @JacksonCollier Yup and there’s no accountability for them in doing so. They can continue to be really bad with no consequences
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@JacksonCollier All SEC refs suck. Just have to expect that now. They have no clue what a travel is anymore and never call the same fouls on both teams. It’s malpractice at this point.
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@JacksonCollier I’ve never seen a group of refs keep a team in a game like this before
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