MadDenker
2.3K posts
MadDenker
@maddenker
Changing the world with Data
NYC Katılım Nisan 2009
1.7K Takip Edilen575 Takipçiler
TX and CA lead the way on #energystorage insideclimatenews.org/news/02042026/…
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BlackRock is planning a Nasdaq 100 ETF in direct challenge to Invesco’s monopoly with $QQQ, per Bloomberg
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@byHeatherLong the previous month's data was revised sharply negative, from -92K to -133K, despite expectations of an upward revision.
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The great news in the March jobs report is the +178,000 job gains that came across a variety of industries.
Yes, healthcare still led the way with +76k job gains (~43%)
But you can see the gains across many others as well
Construction +26k
Manufacturing +15k
Retail +10k
Transport/warehouse +21k
Hospitality +44k
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@SydneyWestFin @DiMartinoBooth I'm more worried about term spreads. 2-5s could drop but 10-30s could possibly rise in yields
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That's the trade if you believe the signal. Duration benefits when cuts come faster than priced. But the risk is that the Fed stays anchored to CPI longer than the data warrantsfloating-rate, which they have a history of doing.
I'm more focused on what it means for floating rate credit. Borrowers in structured and asset-backed facilities feel rate moves immediately.
They don't need to predict the curve; they just need to know the window is opening.
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"If you look at Truflation, you are seeing core Truflation running below headline, it is telling you that consumers are already cutting back on discretionary purchase."
na2.hubs.ly/H04CLSp0
#federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy
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1.26% vs 2.40% BLS reported. That gap tells the whole story.
The shelter lag is doing most of the heavy lifting. OER takes 12-18 months to reflect actual market rents, which have been falling in most metros since mid-2023
The Fed is looking at data that's already stale. Real inflation is likely already where they want it. Which means they're keeping rates higher than they need to — and cuts could come sooner than the market is pricing in.
For borrowers in credit markets, that timing gap is everything.
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The Truflation divergence from CPI is one of the more underappreciated signals right now. If real-time data keeps printing below headline, the lag in shelter components alone could mean the Fed is already behind on cuts, which has big implications for borrowing costs across structured credit
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@cremieuxrecueil It seems more challenging for people to change their minds given new data. Why?
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People didn’t want to believe that the war in Iran is systemic risk-driven global crisis - the fourth one after GFC, Covid, and Russia’s war on Ukraine.
This will by by far the most comprehensive and gruesome one affecting hundreds of million people around the world.
Get ready!
Velina Tchakarova@vtchakarova
For those who are not familiar with systemic risks, their multiplicative effects are devastating for underdeveloped states and welfare losses as they exceed the sum of their parts. A study by Arndt et al. (2023) on simultaneous food, fuel and fertilizer price shocks found 50 million people were pushed below $1,90/day or below minimum calorie threshold).
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A recent study claimed to show that social media use was hurting kids' cognitive development.
But I had access to their data, so I was able to show that they were completely wrong.
Are social scientists too lazy to check if their results are even true?
Link below.
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It’s not just the war that is pushing interest rates up.
The debt is unsustainable and we soon won’t be able to service it.
It’s irresponsible.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
RECORD US DEBT WALL AHEAD $10 TRILLION OF US GOVERNMENT DEBT WILL MATURE IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS — HIGHEST EVER
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BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed fell -5% YoY in the week ending March 13th, to the lowest since October 2025.
Postings have declined -36% since April 2022 and are now down to February 2021 levels.
The number of available vacancies is now only +3% above pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020.
Furthermore, LinkUp job openings are down to the 2nd-lowest level since 2021.
LinkUp tracks real-time US labor demand using job postings sourced directly from the websites of the 10,000 largest US employers.
US labor market weakness is spreading.
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I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library.
Jorge Luis Borges
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Australia’s CSIRO demonstrates world’s first working quantum battery prototype #energysky -- via Energy Storage News: energy-storage.news/australias-csi…
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$SHY short-term Treasury ETF - worst 3-day rout since last May... almost the worst since right after the 2024 election
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