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The U.S. has an advanced AN/TPY-2 X-band radar stationed at Har Qeren, in the Negev desert.
Its mission is to detect Iranian missile launches, and pass targeting data to Israeli Arrow and David’s Sling and U.S. THAAD ABM batteries deployed to protect sensitive Israeli sites, including Dimona and the Nevatim and Ramon air bases.
Iranian missiles struck both Nevatim and Ramon air bases.
The best surveillance radar in the world, working in concert with the most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world, were impotent in the face of the Iranian attack.
For all those trying to spin yesterday’s events as an Israeli victory, chew on that fact:
The best missile defense system in the world could not protect the sites they were tasked with protecting from attacks by Iranian missiles.
Who has deterrence supremacy?
It ain’t Israel.
On Iran’s strike:
At Stanford, I attended a masterclass on military strategy led by a person with decades of experience, including serving at the highest levels in the military and government.
One lesson he thought that I always remember was this:
He asked us:
“Say the US decided to attack Iraq with a new stealth jet it hadn’t used before that evaded all radars? The attack was a success. Was it strategic?”
Many in the class raised their hands to say “yes, it achieved its goal”. But the professor said: “It may not have been”.
Why?
“Because now your adversaries know your capabilities and it’s a matter of time before they find ways around them. If this attack could be done with conventional weapons, it’s better to keep your top weapons until you need them. Using them creates a disadvantage.”
My analysis is that the scale of Iran’s attack, the diversity of locations it targeted, and weapons it used, forced Israel to uncover the majority of anti-missile technologies the US and it have across the region.
The Iranians did not use any weapons Israel didn’t know it had, it just used a lot of them. But the Iranians likely now have almost a full map of what Israel’s missile defence system looks like, as well as where in Jordan and the Gulf the US has installations. It also knows how long it takes to prepare them, how Israeli society responds…etc
This is a huge strategic cost to Israel, while Arab regimes now are being blasted by their peoples, particularly the Jordanian monarchy, for not doing anything to protect Gazans but then going all out to protect Israel.
Crucially, Iran can now reverse engineer all the intel gathered from this attack to make a much more deadly one credible. While the US and Israel will have to re-design away from their current model which has been compromised. Its success in stopping this choreographed attack is thus still very costly.
Moreover, with the threat of a regional war that neither the US nor the Arab regimes want feeling nearer, it’s likely their pressure on Israel to back down will increase, making a ceasefire more feasible.
Anyone assuming this is just theatrics is missing the context of how militaries assess strategy versus tactics. Theatre is an important factor, but gathering intelligence of the “enemy’s” posture is more valuable, especially if one believes they’re in a long war of attrition.
Netanyahu and the Israel government prefer a quick hot and urgent war where they can pull in America. The Iranians prefer a longer war of attrition that bleeds Israel of its deterrence capabilities and makes it an ally for Arabs and the US that’s too costly to have.
Lastly, if you are a person who hates war, if you want peace, the best and only way to get there in the region is to support the Palestinian struggle for freedom, justice and dignity.
There is no sustainable peace possible as long as Palestinians live under an oppressive system of apartheid.
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🏆 Announcing the first-ever #GRVTMeme Contest winners!
Massive congratulations to the 8 individuals who brought the meme game to a whole new level.
🔥 And a big thanks to everyone who participated
Check out the winning memes here 👇
People forget their private keys.
They also lose their seed phrases.
With GRVT, you don’t need to worry about losing access to your funds.
Safeguard your crypto with a password and 2FA and rest easy at night.
Announcing our latest #GRVTech Quiz winners:
Congrats to the 5 quiz masters!
Drop us a message through a ticket on our Discord to collect your #zksync Raffle Tickets 🎟️🎟️
Check out the winners here 👇
Send us your GRVT account email by Feb 21st, 6pm SGT. Please include a screenshot of your X profile for verification.
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… In the case of Arbitrum, they have GMX. In the case of @zksync, we’re going to have GRVT.”
For our LATAM community, check out his video here:
youtube.com/watch?v=DPeUeB…
5/5: Remember: volatility is inherent in crypto 🔥
Bollinger Bands are useful but consider other factors like market conditions and support/resistance zones.
Do you use Bollinger bands in your trading? If so, how?
If not, get some tips here: grvt.io/blog/using-bol…
1/5: If you’re tracking $BTC price right now, you might be bracing for volatility.
#Bitcoin wants you to be patient.
In crypto where prices go from 99% down to multiple Xs up, timing the market is key.
Study Bollinger Bands to trade better 👇