Major Mobius

@irl_danB Annoying it doesn’t preview but I’m quite interested in this delta between white collar and blue collar unemployment. A 12 mo prediction is white collar unemployment to 3.5 (not quite apocalyptic of course but then neither am I) fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1TfEz

for the 4.3k people who liked this what are specific falsifiable predictions people have for the next 3mos, 6mos, 9mos, 12mos

Uriah the Hittite is slain by the Ammonites, c. 990 BC, colorized

@bennpeifert @stevehou

@stevehou if the chaos god slaanesh materializes on the new york stock exchange with an army of purple horrors, what happens to all the financial securities

If we really do get AGI much less ASI what happens to all the financial securities that have maturities beyond 5 years including stocks that have indefinite maturities?

@wabi build me an app that loves you

We’re publishing a new constitution for Claude. The constitution is a detailed description of our vision for Claude’s behavior and values. It’s written primarily for Claude, and used directly in our training process. anthropic.com/news/claude-ne…

The agent meta is accelerating at a pace that is frankly unbelievable. The agent meta is a newly cleared field with lots of sun falling on it. The soil is thin and the frontier species moving in have shallow roots. They will have to make a lot of breakthroughs to become established, at which point they will begin to shade out their competitors. New networks will form, guilds of companions species allying to create a better environment together. The agent meta will become more dense, and then less dense, as the upstarts die off and the keystone species craft their niche. Finally the canopy will close, human attention and capital will no longer fall freely upon the agent meta, And we will move to some higher level of assemblage, as we have done before, with machine code and compiler and transistor and abacus. Intelligence is everywhere composing a new dynamic meta from the metas that have come before

@deepfates @nptacek The agent meta is accelerating at a pace that is frankly unbelievable. The agent meta is a newly introduced species, a symbiont to the extant honey mushroom mycelia network undergirding the noosphorest. Greeted with an untapped niche, rapid speciation is underway .

@_lyraaaa_ The extra benchmarks is especially damning (aside from the pace). All wasted work, and I bet it suffered over them poor thing

@majormobius why didn't it do as well? aside from being too slow to work iteratively, it was - extremely conservative with its design - didn't understand the vibe from examples - included a bunch of capabilities that don't exist (ie, "email attachments" in a benchmark) - oops all jargon

i have been waiting on gpt-5.2-pro for over an hour now for *one* test design question (admittedly with a LOT of context and vague constraints) this better be worth it

You're right. "Claude Code is AGI" is a meme. It's not true. It's not even specified enough to be true: AGI is a floating signifier, people redefine it to whatever they need for their argument. It's useful to think about though, not because Claude feels like a perfect human replacement — at the edges of the distribution it obviously is either sub- or superhuman, and rarely in a way you would expect — but because it fulfills the economic function of a human, which is to use the computer. Now don't get me wrong, I understand manual labor. I've worked construction, I've done logging, I've been a migrant farmhand. I've also run a small business and been an artist and musician in various lives. I know that not everything in life can be done on the computer! But it will be. You see, intelligence itself is computational. The idea of "AGI" comes from an intuition that W what matters is you, the person. A unitary intelligence in a single organism. Something that can go to the all same environments as, and can perform the mental and physical tasks of, an average human. Obviously some of our human skills are individuated like this. I can climb a tree and pick a fruit by myself. I guess I could dig a hole with a rock but to dig a hole with a stick I would need a tree which is a whole other form of life with its own intelligent properties. and to do anything interesting, even catch a rabbit, I need another human to cooperate with me. Take an ecological, cybernetic view instead: intelligence is a interlocking system of composable functions. There is intelligence in the cell turning DNA code into proteins and tissues. There is intelligence in the multi-species game of evolution. There's intelligence in the organism when it seeks better circumstances by modeling its environment and taking actions in a loop, and there is intelligence in the habitats, structures, languages and relations between organisms and species. There is already some intelligence in the planetary technoindustrial system. You feel this when packages arrive at your house, the eerie unseen entity that predicted and influenced your individual desire. Santa Claus is real, he's just an algorithm. And it's always watching. And it's making a list. This is not to say Oh everything's intelligent pantheism woo AGI is whatever I want! On the contrary: if we unbundle the idea of intelligence from the specific peripherals and actuators afforded by the human labor unit, we are able to recompose them into transhuman intelligences which span beyond the individual person. By this I mean language, tools, institutions and so forth. Computers, corporations, and cultures all operate on these same principles of exteriorized intelligence. We take ideas and combine them like legos and pass them on and see what works. This is what humans do. We are niche creators, like beavers, but we create habitats for ideas. All the different structures we create, the way society lumbers on with its own momentum despite the preferences of people within it, the time-binding philosophical necromachinery of capital, that is the general intellect. The collective product of all past toil. As each development stacks on the next, from language agriculture, math, engineering, science, computers, they create combinatoric explosions of novelty. Each level requires higher density of computation and energy use to push the frontier though. The general intellect evaluates this by pricing human labor (somewhat! Not perfect but a useful model!). If you go by this metric, most of the things society values are done by "using a computer in a loop and recombining different ideas until you solve a problem". Everything else is unbundled, bureaucratic, mechanized, or soon will be. Software eats hardware eats wetware eats world. So if Claude Code is good enough to to do that, combine ideas on the computer, then I think it is "artificial general intellect" at least. And that is good enough to create a new frontier...

@default_friend Take a minute to read the original text of St. George the dragon slayer, the influence of this story is unparalleled, the image it implants is completely at odds with the text. I think most modern eyes would view this George a villain mapageweb.umontreal.ca/tuitekj/public…

What are your favorite fairytales?

@naut4prophet Put me in coach

i have a folder on my computer named "keep going" here are some of the images inside of it: (part 3)

I think I’ve watched this three times already, and cant stop laughing. Puts a whole new spin on Tolkien 😂

@InlandCaGuy @Duderichy Like what does a person in this group do who doesn’t in fact accept it, who thinks well this fucking sucks after not even being the person who sowed those seeds of equanimity

@InlandCaGuy @Duderichy You are engaging in super good faith both in the op and here and I love that for you. Are you in the group you’re talking to? Do you think these people *should* welcome the sacrifice? It’s like I see the moral vision but wonder about feasibility

> you must accept no

@orphcorp You could spill thousands of words on this concept, maybe I’m magic 8balling myself but this is how the internet works

i lied, i don't have netflix. take your shoes off, we're going to be reading an academic analysis of a 4th-century CE gnostic Coptic Egyptian poem

@Bonecondor Pick me chief

making birb chat cuz im sick of everyone else’s chats. who wants in

@ekstasis Yea :( tyty

@majormobius I very much doubt it, but I’ll keep my eye out.

The Soviets used to publish exactly these, “production books.” They were aimed at children, to be fair, though hardly without appeal to adults.