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It’s giving

Virginia Voters:

Ahead of polls close in Virginia, here’s a full briefing on what to expect in tonight’s redistricting referendum: Virginia is a relatively clean reporting state with a centralized results system, but the order of votes still matters a lot. This is a true three-method state: • Election Day (ED) • Early Voting (EV) • Absentee Mail (AB) In a close race, I expect something around: ED: NO +9 EV: YES +1 AB: YES +40 That means early returns in each county/city can be misleading depending on what drops first. Most jurisdictions report early vote and mail first, which creates an early blue mirage. But some key areas report Election Day first, creating pockets of a red mirage instead. Virginia Beach is the biggest example of a red mirage on a county/city level. Key benchmarks I'll be tracking: • Loudoun County big drop (~93% of vote): YES +14 • Virginia Beach: NO +5 • Chesterfield: NO +4 • Surry: NO +5 Base counties/cities: • Fairfax: YES +33 • Richmond City: YES +62 • Tazewell: NO +75 • Colonial Heights City: NO +43 Turnout dynamics matter a lot in a one-off referendum, so I'll closely be watching rural ED turnout (red areas) and urban Black ED turnout (Dem base). Timing expectations: • First big Loudoun drop: ~7:50 p.m. ET • ~80% reporting by 10:30 p.m. ET • ~98–99% by ~1 a.m. ET VERY IMPORTANT: If the race is close, expect movement towards YES after Election Night: Fewer provisional ballots than usual are expected in Virginia, since they are tied to same-day registration and the state held a high-turnout election six months ago, meaning most voters are already registered. However, post-election votes will still matter and are expected to break heavily toward YES. I estimate: • Provisionals (~18K): YES +37 • Other late votes (~25K): YES +43 • Net effect: +0.5% shift in margin toward YES Avoid overreacting to small NO leads late in the evening. If it is NO+0.3 when we sleep Wednesday morning at 2 a.m. then YES is favored.

Today is the first day, in all of human history, that a woman has viewed the totality of Earth at once.

Today, I’m proud to be endorsed by former Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall. His support strengthens our grassroots movement and our mission to send a fighter to Congress who will always put people first.

It's so fucking funny that Trump cut his political teeth by accusing Obama of being a muslim socialist who was born in africa, but the second he met and *actual* muslim socialist who was born in africa he fell head over heels in love

what a sentence

The Democrat here won 95.3 percent of the vote. HIGHER than Assad's 95.2% win in 2021. The Dem here literally outperformed Assad Margins.

A year ago tomorrow, Trump fired me for who I am. After 20+ years in uniform, I was pushed out. I’m running for Congress in Virginia so no American is treated as disposable, and every person can chase their dreams. Join me: TeamBree.com

They shot Renee Good in the face. They kidnapped Liam Ramos. They just executed a man on the street. Unmask them. Prosecute them. No more secret police.

heartwarming: 77 year oldformer vice president still trolls republicans the old fashioned way

Thank you to Team Bree! Because of you, we raised over $102k in our first 24 hours. Our campaign is fueled by people who believe there's a future worth fighting for! Let’s do this, Virginia! TeamBree.com

This might be the strongest evidence of a bubble I've seen

It’s honestly inspiring to see Kristi Noem’s DHS speak up for dogs.

Google “Kristi Noem dog” for more on her work in this space.

@thesunbutch Nate the hoof guy

list of people i think shouldn’t have haters at all 1) dandelion crayon lady 2) the lady who passes court judgements for potluck food 3) etymology nerd 4) dr ally louks trying to think of more

Born too late to explore the earth. Born too early to explore the stars. Born right on time to get war updates from Pop Base.

where we’re at:

You Winsome, you Losesome