Manhasideas

@LP_CLC Why? Sounds like she is saying we need less rules about what fruit can served at school- I must be missing something.

People like this making laws are why tomatoes and other fruits are legally considered vegetables

@edels0n Yes Gen Z spends less but this chart appears to be distorting /exaggerating significantly because a) half of Gen Z is not 21+ b) looking at cohorts of previous generations - people spend less money ($ not as % of income) when younger on alcohol c) bls is household not individual

Gen Z is the most sober generation in history. They're also the most depressed. How are those two facts related? Find out in my latest newsletter, "Substance Abuse" 👇

@eveningdoji @JesseTinsley Yeah tethered to what eBay should be marking against (~20% to before announcement) and split of new co (determines who gets diluted from new co perspective). @ 60% and $ to shareholders / w/ cost cutting-if you believe compare against taking out debt, special dividend and 100%

@manhasanidea @JesseTinsley Well, I was just clarifying the math for the "but it will just dilute the shareholders" crowd. For eBay, 46% premium is certainty an number that would get existing shareholders attention. eBay q1 does reflect they're doing well on their own too so idk.

This is why you go on Fox News not CNBC. As i said yesterday the combined dilution is 60% Ryan confirms this here. The 50% stock is rolled equity this is very common in M&A. Lastly this proves my point that CNBC likely blindsided Ryan as this is how most CEOs would speak if they were given the questions prior. People acting like he can go wing it on live air on the spot without getting his Legal teams feedback are foolish.

@eveningdoji @JesseTinsley Now do eBay shareholders- 2qs. How much is adding GME worth (ex cash) - and if synergies are cost cutting why would they need cohen /gme management? Statistically most mergers fail/ non value add - with answer to previous q- is this more or less likely to work than median deal?

@JesseTinsley I dont understand why it's so hard to grasp, that yes, you are diluting shareholders who own 100% of GME (~0.76 per share) to ~32% of a company that is projected to earn ~7.79 per share. Profit of attached shares are ~1000% contingent the 2.0B cost cutting is a success?

@way2futura @MarkSchmidty @Caffeindated @dwarkesh_sp Agreed

@manhasanidea @MarkSchmidty @Caffeindated @dwarkesh_sp They won’t be able to

Distilled recap of the back-and-forth with Jensen on export controls: Dwarkesh: Wouldn’t selling Nvidia chips to China enable them to train models like Claude Mythos with cyber offensive capabilities that would be threats to American companies and national security? Jensen: First of all, Mythos was trained on fairly mundane capacity and a fairly mundane amount of it by an extraordinary company. The amount of capacity and the type of compute it was trained on is abundantly available in China. Dwarkesh: With that, could they eventually train a model like Mythos? Yes. But the question is, because we have more FLOPs, American labs are able to get to this level of capabilities first. Furthermore, even if they trained a model like this, the ability to deploy it at scale matters. If you had a cyber hacker, it's much more dangerous if they have a million of them versus a thousand of them. Jensen: Your premise is just wrong. The fact of the matter is their AI development is going just fine. The best AI researchers in the world, because they are limited in compute, also come up with extremely smart algorithms. DeepSeek is not an inconsequential advance. The day that DeepSeek comes out on Huawei first, that is a horrible outcome for our nation. Dwarkesh: Currently, you can have a model like DeepSeek that can run on any accelerator if it's open source. Why would that stop being the case in the future? Jensen: Suppose it optimizes for Huawei. Suppose it optimizes for their architecture. It would put others at a disadvantage. As AI diffuses out into the rest of the world, their standards and their tech stack will become superior to ours because their models are open. Dwarkesh: Tesla sold extremely good electric vehicles to China for a long time. iPhones are sold in China. They didn't cause some lock-in. China will still make their version of EVs, and they're dominating, or smartphones, they're dominating. Jensen: We are not a car. The fact that I can buy this car brand one day and use another car brand another day is easy. Computing is not like that. There's a reason why x86 still exists. There's a reason why Arm is so sticky. These ecosystems are hard to replace. Dwarkesh: It's just hard to imagine that there's a long-term lock-in to the Chinese ecosystem, even if they have this slightly better open-source model for a while. American labs port across accelerators constantly. Anthropic's models are run on GPUs, they're run on Trainium, they're run on TPUs. There are so many things you can do, from distilling to a model that's well fit for your chips. Jensen: China is the largest contributor to open source software in the world. China's the largest contributor to open models in the world. Today it's built on the American tech stack, Nvidia’s. Fact. All five layers of the tech stack for AI are important. The United States ought to go win all five of them. in a few years time, I'm making you the prediction that when we want American technology to be diffused around the world—out to India, out to the Middle East, out to Africa, out to Southeast Asia—on that day, I will tell you exactly about today's conversation, about how your policy ... caused the United States to concede the second largest market in the world for no good reason at all.

@MarkSchmidty @way2futura @Caffeindated @dwarkesh_sp That could be why it is important for nvidia and the us - but why would china want nvidia if a) they get same performance domestically b) it is helpful for US. In isolation they would want to insource critical components. In Jensen’s 5 layer cake - this is layer we have leverage

@way2futura @Caffeindated @dwarkesh_sp Because the surplus value for sales of his chips flows to the United States and then gets reinvested into Nvidia in a virtuous cycle. In contrast without Nvidia chip sales in China, Chinese Huawei chip sales increase at the expense of the USA and its allies.

@djacoby Glad you are embracing the analytics revolution

My daughter asked me, “how long have you spent pooping in your life?” I said I spend a half hour pooping everyday. Did the math. I’ve spent a year pooping.

@arya_amsha How does this contrast with dogra or Kashmiri pandit dna?

"Kashmiri" Muslim DNA.

It's time to bust one myth: that Indian Muslims are native to India and are just descendants of local converts. This is not true. Muslims from Kashmir, UP, Bengal, Hyderabad etc all show significant amounts of West Asian & North African + trace African ancestry on 23&Me.

@based_yeoman @David747815774 @Osint613 100% - we need to realize that change happens at the margin- even in this scenario this requires our adversaries to use resources to build back here vs expand capabilities somewhere else- and that itself is a win

@David747815774 @Osint613 Takes time and money to build that military infrastructure, and the Chinese hate wasting time and money. And rail….great idea. Do it. The additional expense to move it will make Iranian oil uncompetitive.

A senior IDF military official: "The Americans didn’t believe we would succeed in the decapitation strike. We destroyed between 160–190 launchers, disabled another 200, and around 150 remain active. The missile crews are afraid to go out; there are desertions and refusals to follow orders. Every day we hunt down several launchers. We’ve entered a perhaps unheroic and monotonic stage of systematic destruction of command and control headquarters, military industry, and nuclear infrastructure. The Iranians have over 10,000 dead and wounded among their security forces. What is likely to follow after the war is a weakened regime, an economic blockade, diplomatic isolation, and eventually a revolution. The situation matches what we anticipated." @amitsegal

The current administration is doing more for public choice theory than 50 years of academic papers ever could.

@dccommonsense Never a bad time to realize most of their accusations are confessions. However before I shed a tear for them - at least luttnicks sons bought tariff claims at a discount - ideology never stops them from making a buck (or perhaps that is the ideology)

Not enough apparently. So the SCOTUS decisions are being called "lawlessness" by the VP? Good times. Good times. 🙄

@sisneruza @PhilWMagness Hopefully - and then they put injunction to stop this from cycling but eh nothing surprises me at this point

@manhasanidea @PhilWMagness The courts would easily see through such a transparent work around

Not mentioned by the White House: Section 122 has an expiration date of 150 days. It's also dubious whether the statutory conditions for imposing a Section 122 tariff have been met.

@jordanlauer54 @TXREC0N1 @JakeSherman I’m not sure if the was OP point but framers idea (per federalist papers) was checks and balances to avoid domination- state appointment of senators gave state govt real power vs. feds (also had a branch that was less populist). There were downsides as you mentioned no doubt

@TXREC0N1 @JakeSherman The 17th Amendment made the more senior house of our legislature to be more responsible to the people as opposed to shady back room deals as was the norm in the Gilded Age. Why would make our system more representative be a bad thing?

Gorsuch on the importance of Congress and the legislative process.

@JeremiahDJohns There is going to be a weekly essay series about American presidents and selected First Ladies written by historians, former Presidents, and others. W wrote the first one about George Washington @inpursuitusa" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@inpursuitusa

George W Bush appears to have started a Substck, and he currently has only 12 subscribers.

@RepDonBacon Thank you

@RepDonBacon I hope you continue to hold the line- help them help themselves (as well as our alliances)

This is why Congress needs to debate tariffs.

@edels0n @ZohranKMamdani The reason that New Yorkers voted for a democratic socialist mayor (who opposes the expansion of charter schools ) is because of the increase of elite private school tuition? I am usually suspicious of Marxist’s theory of false consciousness- but this is certainly big if true…

People wonder why @ZohranKMamdani’s affordability message resonated with so many wealthy New Yorkers. This is why:

@awealthofcs And we have put a lot of regulations in place (housing , childcare) where cost was not considered - and with the trade off known we may have made different choices

The fact that ppl actually think $140k is the new poverty line shows how wealthy we are as a country Inflated expectations are a sign of progress

JD Vance thinks like a commie. Look at language: Illegal immigrants were "taking houses" that "by right" ought to go to Americans. As if homes are a fixed pot the govt allocates to a deserving class. (And the US sellers? Blank out.) Zero-sum, central-planner thinking.