Man With A Dog

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Man With A Dog

Man With A Dog

@manwithadogg

Investor || Stocks · Bitcoin · Global Macro || Usually walking my dog || Portfolio built on TLI Framework || Not financial advice.

🇨🇦🇺🇸 Katılım Nisan 2021
151 Takip Edilen137 Takipçiler
Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
Every Sunday, my dog reminds me that rest is part of the routine. Investing is the same. You don’t need to make a decision every day. Sometimes the best move is to review your plan, recharge, and come back ready for the week ahead. Discipline isn’t just about knowing when to act. It’s also about knowing when not to.
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
Most investors spend Sunday worrying about Monday. I spend it preparing for the next 10 years. The weekend isn’t for predicting what the market will do tomorrow. It’s for reviewing your process. Did your investment thesis change? Did your long-term goals change? If the answer is no, you probably don’t need to change your portfolio either. Great investing starts with a clear mind.
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
@KobeissiLetter Bears see record equity exposure. Bulls see $20 trillion in dry powder. Both can’t be right🤔
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
US households are sitting on a massive cash pile despite record equity exposure: Household equity holdings are up to a record ~$72 trillion. This is $18 trillion, or +33%, above its long-term trend from 2009 to 2019. Household stock ownership has more than doubled since 2020. Meanwhile, cash and cash equivalent holdings are up to $20 trillion, an all-time high. This exceeds the long-term trend by $5 trillion, or +33%. By comparison, households also own a record $11 trillion in debt securities such as bonds, $2.2 trillion, or +25%, above trend. American households have never had a bigger cash buffer.
The Kobeissi Letter tweet media
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
@TheValueTrade Msft
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg

Microsoft is quietly setting up for one of its biggest moves of the year. Most people are going to miss it. CPI drops Tuesday. Warsh testifies to Congress. JPMorgan, Goldman, BofA all report. If inflation cools, rate hike fears fade and growth stocks reprice higher. Microsoft is the most leveraged quality play to that scenario. Azure growing 20%+. Copilot in every enterprise. $80B in cash. Down 20% from highs. Trading at a discount to its own history. The layoffs spooked people. The AI spend worried people. But Microsoft has done this before — cut costs, refocus, come back stronger. They did it in 2014 when Nadella took over. They’re doing it again now. I bought at $368.60. I’m not trading this. I’m holding it. Next week’s CPI is the catalyst. Earnings July 29 is the confirmation. The move is coming. Patient money wins. $MSFT

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The Value Trader
The Value Trader@TheValueTrade·
What’s the better buy right now? - $MSFT - $UBER - $NFLX
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Kalshi Finance
Kalshi Finance@Kalshi_Finance·
JUST IN: The probability of a recession just hit its lowest point since 2022
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
What I’m watching next week: 📊 CPI data Tuesday - most important number of the month 🏦 JPMorgan, Goldman, BofA, Wells Fargo earnings Tuesday 🎤 Warsh testifies to Congress Tuesday - first public appearance since taking over 📊 PPI data Wednesday 🇨🇦 Canadian jobs data Friday I called flat markets this week . S&P up 1.2%. Close but slightly off. Called Bitcoin holds $60-65K ✅ Bitcoin at $64K. Right on the money. One for two. Full accountability Friday as always. $SPY $TSX $BTC $META $NVDA
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
Week in Markets — July 6-11, 2026 📊 No noise. Just the numbers. 🇺🇸 S&P 500: 7,575 — +1.2% - just 40 points from all time high 🇺🇸 Nasdaq: 26,281 — +1.7% - up 29% YTD 🇺🇸 Dow: 52,637 — -0.5% underperformed tech 🇨🇦 TSX: 35,305 — +0.3% 🛢️ Oil: $71.41 — up 5% on Iran ceasefire violations 🥇 Gold: $4,113 — pulling back slightly ₿ Bitcoin: $64,000 — recovering steadily 💵 CAD/USD: under pressure 📈 10Y Yield: above 4.5% - rate hike fears returning Winner of the week: Tech - Mag 7 rebounded 4.9%. Meta +15%. Nvidia +4%. Loser of the week: Small caps - Russell 2000 down 0.49% Story of the week: SK Hynix raised $26.5B - largest ever foreign company IPO on Nasdaq. Opened 20% above offering price. $SPY $TSX $BTC $META $NVDA
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
The biggest week of the year starts Monday. CPI data. Warsh testifies to Congress. JPMorgan, Goldman, BofA, Wells Fargo all report. Where does June CPI land on Tuesday? 🔴 Hot — above 3.5%, hikes back on the table 🟡 In line — 3.0-3.5%, Fed stays patient 🟢 Cool — below 3%, pivot narrative returns 🚀 Surprise drop — market rips higher Drop your vote. I’ll share my take when the number drops Tuesday. $SPY $BTC $JPM
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
bitcoin:native Bitcoin down as strikes resumé
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
The Gordie Howe Bridge took 10 years and $6.4 billion to build. It opens July 27. And Canada just confirmed it will forgo the revenue from it. We built the most expensive bridge in Canadian history and gave away the tolls. This is how Canada does infrastructure. Overpay to build it. Underprice to use it. Then wonder why we can’t fund healthcare or housing. Is this how you’d run a $6.4 billion investment? 🇨🇦
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
Microsoft is quietly setting up for one of its biggest moves of the year. Most people are going to miss it. CPI drops Tuesday. Warsh testifies to Congress. JPMorgan, Goldman, BofA all report. If inflation cools, rate hike fears fade and growth stocks reprice higher. Microsoft is the most leveraged quality play to that scenario. Azure growing 20%+. Copilot in every enterprise. $80B in cash. Down 20% from highs. Trading at a discount to its own history. The layoffs spooked people. The AI spend worried people. But Microsoft has done this before — cut costs, refocus, come back stronger. They did it in 2014 when Nadella took over. They’re doing it again now. I bought at $368.60. I’m not trading this. I’m holding it. Next week’s CPI is the catalyst. Earnings July 29 is the confirmation. The move is coming. Patient money wins. $MSFT
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
Most investing mistakes happen after clicking “Buy.” Buying is easy. Holding through volatility is hard. Every long-term winner has gone through uncomfortable periods. If your investment thesis hasn’t changed, a lower stock price isn’t automatically bad news. Sometimes it’s just the market testing your conviction. $spy $nvda $btc
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
The hardest part of investing isn’t finding great companies. It’s controlling your emotions. Fear makes people sell too early. Greed makes people buy too late. The market rewards people who can stay rational when everyone else is emotional. Your biggest investing edge isn’t your portfolio. It’s your mindset.
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
@TradeTactician1 x.com/manwithadogg/s…
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg

I bought Microsoft today at $368.60. Here’s my thinking. 🧵 MSFT is down over 20% from its highs. Everyone is focused on the AI spending concerns, Alphabet talent exodus, and rate hike fears. I see something different. A company with $147 billion in annual revenue, 45% operating margins, and Azure growing 20%+ quarter after quarter. That doesn’t go on sale very often. Here’s what I’m actually buying: Not the hype. Not the AI promises. The infrastructure. Azure is the second largest cloud platform on earth. Copilot is being embedded into every enterprise workflow globally. LinkedIn. Xbox. GitHub. Teams. Microsoft doesn’t need AI to win. AI needs Microsoft to scale. The risk I’m watching: OpenAI dependency is real. If that relationship fractures, the AI premium evaporates. Three rate hikes compress valuations further. Enterprise spending could slow if the economy weakens. I’m aware of all of it. I bought anyway. At $368.60. With a long term lens. Not financial advice. But this is what conviction looks like in practice. $MSFT $spy

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PlotLine
PlotLine@TradeTactician1·
$MSFT $MSFU is following a very similar pattern to the 2022 channel bottom in a lot of ways. While everyone continues to write up $MSFT obituary, many of positives have stacked up quietly in the background 🟢False breakdown of the multi-year channel 🟢Bullish RSI divergence 🟢200 week SMA reclaim and retest hold 🟢MACD cross on daily
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PlotLine@TradeTactician1

The death of $MSFT $MSFU was greatly exaggerated. I have been calling for the bottom at $366. Price broke below the multi-year channel and quickly reclaimed. False breakdown 🟢 RSI bullish divergence vs Mar🟢 Bottom of the channel is the loading zone🚨🛻🚧

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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
@patientinvestor Everyone is debating P/E multiples. We’re asking a different question: Which of these businesses deserves to compound capital for the next 20 years? That’s exactly why I built the TLI Framework. Great businesses + reasonable valuations + patience = long-term wealth.
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Patient Investor
Patient Investor@patientinvestor·
Apple $AAPL: 34x Amazon $AMZN: 29x Google $GOOGL: 28x Broadcom $AVGO: 25x Microsoft $MSFT: 20x Nvidia $NVDA: 20x Meta $META: 19x
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
I used to check my portfolio every 30 minutes. Refreshing. Panicking. Reacting. Lost $60K doing it. The day I closed the app and trusted my research and everything changed. The market rewards patience. Not activity. Took me years to learn that. Sharing it so you don’t have to.
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Man With A Dog
Man With A Dog@manwithadogg·
Meta is up 15% this week. Best week since early 2024. Last week everyone was questioning their $145 billion AI spend. This week they announced a $13B data centre in Canada, their own AI chip, and a new model beating Anthropic and OpenAI. The market spent 6 months punishing Meta for spending too much on AI. It just spent one week rewarding them for it. Conviction looks stupid until it doesn’t. Are you holding Meta into earnings July 29? $META
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Keşfet

@KobeissiLetter @TheValueTrade @Kalshi_Finance @elonmusk @TradeTactician1 @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano