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This year I present a handful of my top ideas for 2026 (in alphabetical order of tickers). Some of these names are fairly uncorrelated with the market (and a few definitely are not). As a reminder please do your own work and be mindful of the low trading liquidity in many of these.
$BWEL JG Boswell at $459/share (LOW RISK / HIGH REWARD)
JG Boswell has been the deep value stock that even the most disciplined investors have lost patience with (including yours truly!). Despite the last year being horrible for both tomatoes and cotton, $BWEL put up ~$40mm of adj. EBITDA. It is extremely rare for both of its core crops to be bad at the same time (i.e., something good should happen with one of them this year) and their pistachio crop will generate increasingly material cash flow for the next 10 years as it matures. Creation value per acre is around ~$3k (or lower) depending on your assumptions which compares to FMV of $15k/acre. There's a lot of room for the stock to appreciate and still trade poorly!
$MLP Maui Land & Pineapple at $17 (LOW RISK / HIGH REWARD)
This name has seen a recent cluster of insider buying by the CEO (Race Randle), Chairman (Scot Sellers) and controling shareholder (Steve Case). The company's undiscounted land value is ridiuclously high relative to its stock price (like 8-15x) but the open question is the time to monetize. In a frothy stock market, this seems like an interesting, low risk place to deploy capital.
$PLAY Dave & Buster's at $16 (MEDIUM RISK / VERY HIGH REWARD)
Dave & Buster's is in the midst of a turnaround, with tangible signs of progress, but an exasperated investor base. Valuation is ~4.5x EBITDA which compares to its long history of 6-10x+ EBITDA. It's also worth pointing out that within this business is a bowling business called Main Event which is ~half of the company's TEV and worth ~8-10x if sold separately. $PLAY is going through a capital intensive remodel phase (with mixed results). The company recently put in a new CEO and results are turning, but the street is rightly worried about the staying power of the improvement. 2026 could be disappointing on the topline, but my gut is that there is a lot of low hanging fruit that will result in nicely improving results in 2026. There are no near-term liquidity issues and this is a nice multi-year option. I think it's highly asymmetric, wherein downside should be limited given b/s duration + low hanging fruit on costs with colossal upside on any real turnaround (every ~1x EV/EBITDA revaluation upward is around 100% on the stock). Don't waste your time on this one if you can't handle the volatility.
$TIPT Tiptree at $18.27 (SAFE PLACE TO PARK CASH)
This is by far my lowest beta pick. $TIPT is essentially doing the opposite of a de-SPAC. It is morphing from an operating company to a cash shell. It has agreements to sell its assets and will have $24.60/share in net tangible book value upon closing of Fortegra in 1H26. Post closing, the company will return the cash, make a large acquisition or a combination thereof. One of $TIPT's directors recently bought stock at $18.21/share and most importantly insiders own ~35% of the company. Upon completion of the Fortegra divestiture, I expect this to pull toward 85-95% of TBV ($20.91-23.37/share) representing a 14-28% return. Further upside potential when they announce an acquisition. If this were a true SPAC (with a 24 month put) I think this management team would trade at a premium.
$WEBC Webco at $218 (warning: VERY ILLIQUID)
Webco ended the year near its ATH, however, it is incredibly cheap at ~0.5x TBV and ~4x EBITDA. About a year ago, the company did a privately negotiated buyback of ~15% of its stock at $200, which was a premium to the prevailing $185/share trading price. No surprise, but in the last few quarters, the results have turned and the company should generate meaningful FCF in 2026. I believe the take private valuation for this company is ~$350-400/share.
And a few other old favorites that I'll throw in here:
$CBBI CBB Bancorp at $11 (LOW RISK + HIGH REWARD)
This name has been discussed on FinX extensively and I'm not going to break new ground here. But I will say that the new board member gives me some hope that something will happen in the name in the short-term.
$FMBL at $8,349 + $QUCT at $2,100. (LOW RISK)
Both of these names had an amazing 2025 due to the company taking shareholder friendly actions (for FMBL, raising a $200mm pref, for QUCT signalling asset sales and having improved results). Both of these names continue to very cheap relative to their take private valuations. And, due to conservatively positioned balance sheets they both have little downside.
$FPH at $5.59 (LOW RISK + HIGH REWARD)
It feels like hubris to re-recommend $FPH as a top pick for the upcoming year and I do think that at this price it's not as interesting (obviously). However, there are a lot of good catalysts coming with this name, including the announcement of JV partners in both Valencia and SF and the potential favorable resolution of the litigation against $TTEK (in addition to continued high value land sales in Irvine). $10-15/share continues to be where I think this goes to over time.
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