Jim Lieto

Big Ten Expansion Series - avoiding the pending enrollment cliff Many higher ed institutions will face declining or stagnant student enrollment beginning in about six years, a reality which will require a thoughtful, strategic approach to ensure the viability and sustainability of those institutions. In fact, some schools in the Big Ten are already facing this challenge. The number of high school graduates in the Midwest is projected to drop off significantly beginning in 2025. “College Students Predicted to Fall by More Than 15 Percent After the Year 2025” Nebraska: "These numbers aren’t shocking to us, but they are disappointing. I’ve told the chancellors that I expect an all-hands-on-deck effort to get us where I know we can be. This is the time to be bold and creative in our thinking. Enrollment is our top priority." Within the past two months, four of the 14 universities currently in the Big Ten conference have revealed they are facing significant budget shortfalls - topping $100 million at two institutions. Rutgers: “We need multi-year solutions and structural reforms. While I am focused on the current budget, I will not endorse a plan that requires draconian cuts so that we can close a budget hole in a single year,” Holloway said. Rutgers: "Similar to the messages by the other presidents, Holloway pointed to inflation, drops in enrollment, reduced transfers, and large increases in employee benefits as the main culprits. He issued this challenge: “(W)e must do things smarter, better, and more efficiently. Some cans and can’ts: We cannot support the unaffordable luxury of duplication and inefficiency. We can no longer afford to have competing academic programs in different schools on the same campus. We can’t have entirely duplicative administrative structures.” University of Minnesota: "University officials blamed the tuition shortfall on several factors, including a decrease in both student retention and the number of students transferring into the university." The Big Ten institutions are among the best-resourced public universities in the nation. When institutions of this stature report budget problems of this magnitude, it’s an ominous sign of what is to come across the nation. We have already seen some universities close their doors, mergers have occurred, and now the biggest issue of all is already here and will only get worst - dropping enrollment. A drop in enrollment has a significant impact on the revenue for a university. What could the Big Ten do to combat this issue? Stay at 16 schools once USC and UCLA are conference members? Nothing? A solution to this issue to continue to expand the conference. But don't expand just to expand. You should add conference members where it can HELP strategically recruit regular students in highly populated regions. The states of Florida, Virginia, Georgia, and North Carolina "feed" regular students to Big Ten universities as it is today. Add universities from those states to the Big Ten to increase the Big Ten footprint will allow Big Ten schools to gain more exposure, and be able to market to the students in those states more effectively. Sure Big Ten schools adding more students from those ACC schools will lead to fewer students going to schools in the ACC states, but what is IMPORTANT is the quality of education the students are getting. The Big Ten allows for high-quality education and research learning. Society would benefit by having more students from the ACC states going to Big Ten schools. That isn't meant to be a negative against the likes of Duke, UNC, and others, but more of the reality of needing students going to colleges to the highest levels to benefit society. As you can see in the image that I am sharing in this tweet, the Midwest will see a big drop in high school graduates. The ACC states - Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida will remain healthy in terms of their high school graduate numbers. To combat enrollment issues, the Big Ten needs to be focused on gaining more national appeal and be able to market into new regions in the country through conference expansion. Enrollments are going to drop. The data shows that. But the Big Ten Conference does not need to face the negative issues that are going to be facing the smaller schools (FCS, D2, D3 levels). Society needs the biggest and best universities in our country to be thriving, not cutting education, research, etc.