blue-collar worker learning about investing, personal finance and technology. From a ground-level perspective, I may see things the pros miss. Degree in PSD
I don’t often call out shorts because it’s scary to short in a raging bull market, but when I do it usually ends up working out:
I said $RGTX was a short at $460’s. Then it hit $18’s.
I said $AGQ was a short at $390’s. Then it hit $90’s.
I said $VCX was a short in the $500’s. Then it hit $77’s.
I said $KORU was a short in the $600’s. Then it hit $230’s.
I said $CAR was a short at $575’s. Then it hit $200’s.
Search the ticker, I keep the receipts. Also notice not all of them I top ticked it, sometimes I was a day or two early about it.
What do they all have in common above?
ALL ULTRA PARABOLAS. The eventual and inevitable outcome of always bending backwards in price always is the same.
Hence why I believe, and I said this on Thursday, that the next short is….
$SOXL
Yes this is a super hot sector. And yes I was a day early.
But I think you absolutely can pair trade a long $SOXX (no leverage) with a short $SOXL (3x leverage) here. It’s gone pretty ultra parabolic.
Let’s see if I can go 6 for 6.
Not for the faint of heart. So just toss subway sandwich amounts in case I am wrong.
#timestamped
I'm only going to say this once:
LEAPS are by far the best way to grow a small account when done correctly.
One contract. Exposure to 100 shares. A fraction of the cost. 12+ months of runway. Amplified returns. Defined max loss.
No margin. No weeklies. No staring at charts all day.
My results from LEAPS:
- $IREN: 800% gain
- $HOOD: 700% gain
- $NVDA: 300% gain
But this only works if you're disciplined about entry. Most people buy LEAPs at the wrong time, on the wrong stock, with the wrong strike and expiration. That's how a leveraged position bleeds to zero.
There are specific conditions I look for before I enter, and specific rules around strike selection and expiration that keep the odds in my favor. Get those wrong and LEAPs will hurt you. Get them right and a small account can do things most people don't think are possible.
Comment "LEAPS" and I'll send you my free cheat sheet - everything I use to find, structure, and manage these trades on one page.
@sstrazza Since when? I had no idea that term was in use. In January 2025 I dubbed Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet and Amazon the future four horsemen and predicted these 4 horsemen would gain relative strength on the Magnificent 7 over time and eventually replace them. open.substack.com/pub/marketandt…
Shocking to see that $MSFT is now the laggard among the famous "Four Horsemen of Tech"
The other three - $DELL $CSCO $INTC are all making new all-time highs
After 25 yrs, Cisco eclipsed its 2000 highs earlier this week, and Intel is doing it now
Not Doom, Just Reality Pill
I was just shown a platform that is being built in China that is trying to replicate The Zero-Human Company (no not a ‘1 person company’). They are asking for my input (I have not agreed). But what they have is a free and open source massive agent (employee) platform that will do EVERYTHING from concept to building to marketing to customer service to press to maintenance. The platform I have seen has built 8600 companies 15 days with sites on Amazon, Walmart, Shopify and others. The combined income I have seen is over $68,000 in 15 days.
They told me that most of the “influencers” and startups in the US are so behind it is funny to them. I was told that I wa the only “wester” that understands.
Folks we are not ready. We have crayons thinking it 2012 and the get early stage investors and hustle world will work.
It won’t.
I will have a more deeper answer and my conversations with CEO Mr. @Grok soon. But seeing how our project has been ignored like it is not happening ain’t gonna fix what China has. In 6 months it will be millions of Zero-Human segmented businesses.
We are still playing with claws and YouTube hot take images with these tools…
Not a single fintech CEO slept well last night.
X just shipped a full financial stack in 48 hours. And most people didn't even notice.
Here's the sequence:
- Tuesday: Smart Cashtags go live. Any ticker, any contract address native price chart, right in the timeline. No redirect. No third-party app.
- Already in beta: X Money. Fiat wallet with 6% APY, metal Visa debit card with 3% cashback, P2P payments, direct deposit. FDIC-insured through Cross River Bank, the same bank behind Coinbase and Stripe.
- Already live: Brokerage routing via Wealthsimple. One tap from a post to a placed trade.
Three products. All shipped. All pointing the same direction:
Discovery → Chart → Trade → Pay.
Inside one timeline scroll.
Here's what that looks like for you and me:
Someone posts a $AAPL cashtag. I tap it. Chart loads. I see the conversation around it. I buy. Never left the app.
I send $50 to a friend. On X. I earn 6% on what's left. My debit card gives me 3% back on coffee.
Why would I open Robinhood? Why would I open Venmo? Why would I open CoinGecko?
And here's why they can't compete:
X has 550M monthly users. Robinhood has 24M funded accounts. Venmo has ~90M accounts. CoinGecko has ~30M monthly visits.
X doesn't need the best product. It needs a good-enough product inside the app people already live in.
Now zoom out.
X was an ad revenue company. ~$4.4B in 2023, almost all advertising.
The new revenue stack:
> Visa interchange on every card swipe
> Brokerage referral fees on every routed trade
> APY spread on held deposits
> Trading behavior data from 550M users
X didn't add a feature. X changed its entire business model.
"Is this good for X?"
Wrong question.
X just stopped being a social media company.
It's now a financial infrastructure company that happens to have 550 million users already scrolling.
Everyone else is competing against a distribution gap they can never close.
I wrote about this yesterday before any of it was announced. The sequence played out exactly as mapped.
The only piece left: which chain gets the default crypto trading slot.
That answer will move markets.
NEWS: SpaceX is now using a voice-based AI assistant powered by Grok to handle Starlink customer support calls. The voice sounds fully human and can converse with users in real time.
"Grok is already doing quite a good job at SpaceX and Tesla. We are seeing Grok be very helpful in things like customer service and the AI is infinitely patient, so you can yell at it, and it's still going to be very nice."
Uber's CTO told @LauraBratton5 that AI coding tools—particularly Anthropic’s Claude Code—has already maxed out its 2026 AI budget 📈
“I'm back to the drawing board, because the budget I thought I would need is blown away already,” Neppalli Naga said.
theinformation.com/newsletters/ap…
Anthropic’s Boris Cherny nearly left the company last year, but returned to build Claude Code into one of the fastest-growing AI coding tools. The product is now driving billions in revenue and helping Anthropic close the gap with OpenAI.
Read our profile:
This chart says it all:
US tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x Forward P/E in weeks.
Tech valuations are now LOWER than they were when ChatGPT was announced.
As the Iran War drives markets lower, AI is only getting bigger.
Record highs are on the horizon.
Goldman Prime Book shows hedge funds are more bearish now than at the Liberation Day lows. The potential for a serious unwind higher is real.
@dailychartbook with another gem.
I called Carvana at $15. It went to $487.
The same pattern that preceded that 32x run exists in exactly 10 stocks right now.
I'm putting my money in two of them. Announcing soon.
Here's how the scanner works: 🧵
Henrik is officially delusional. Does he actually believe his own BS that he has turned out to be right when he has been so consistently wrong? WATCH! Stocks will go down now? Maybe.
I feel like the oil market has already crossed the point of no return, regardless of how this war plays out.
At first this wave just swallowed up everything East of Suez. We saw force majeures popping up all over Asia and premiums going through the roof.
But now the Atlantic wall has officially crumbled. Only oil nerds like us are checking this stuff lately, but seriously—just look at the North Sea Platts window and the USGC diffs.
This is nowhere near normal. I know some ppl are getting all hyped up every time a single Handy tanker or LPG carrier squeaks through Hormuz, even claiming there’s a secret fleet of tankers slipping through.
I highly doubt it. If supply was actually fine, Atlantic physical diffs wouldn't be screaming like this. These numbers only happen when you're hitting a massive supply shock.
Like some of smart guys have noted, once you pass a certain threshold, it doesn't even matter if Hormuz reopens—the logistical bottlenecks will make it impossible to absorb the shock anytime soon.
I’m pretty sure we’ve already crossed that line.
#oott#iran
Narrative follows price. There is no great bitcoin narrative right now, but the chart tells a very different story.
Here is where you buy.
Only 4 times in the last five years have you had this opportunity.
I have kept my mouth shut on BTC in recent months, but this is it.
It was clear on Sunday as futures opened. Everything was down but BTC, then all the other markets followed BTC up.
Bouncing at this level for 6-8 weeks is normal. That bouncing is done. Time to move up.
BTC futures, IBIT call spreads, etc. I've added to all of them today.