mark heath
560 posts
mark heath
@markheathuk
Former commodities......now just doing the more interesting stuff. Dog loves the beach. Pro-EU.
Omaha beach Katılım Temmuz 2019
1.1K Takip Edilen118 Takipçiler
@shanahanmike And subsidies to renewables approach £1 billion per month. And because of renewables we have to maintain 120GW generation capacity to meet 45GW peak demand, and expand the transmission grid at vast expense.
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Record wind and solar saved UK from gas imports worth £1bn in March 2026 carbonbrief.org/analysis-recor…
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@shanahanmike So if reducing imports is your goal I'm guessing you're all for loads of drilling in the North Sea?
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@markheathuk @peter_ziemann @JavierBlas Is that not part of arbitrage? Purchase WTI May and sell it as Brent June?
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If you manage outside money, put the letters “CFA” at the end of your social media name, and today you are asking “Why is WTI trading above Brent?,” I’m afraid your clients have a problem.
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@BelenRosasAlva2 @JavierBlas @staunovo de nada. Its classic commodities futures roll up the curve. A hugely powerful force - convergence.
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@markheathuk @jalistairclone @JavierBlas OK, backwardation [the unusual situation where the spot price is higher than the future price based on immediate delivery demands] makes sense for me. Question closed.
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@BelenRosasAlva2 @JavierBlas @staunovo they are different months. WTI still trading may, Brent now trading Jun. The extreme backwardation means spot prices are way higher, hence wit 'looks' like it above Brent. Compare Jun Futs with Jun Futs and all will look normal (ish)
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@JavierBlas @staunovo I do neither of those things but I’d like to know
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@Crene_Inc @JavierBlas oh dear. I hope you are not managing money
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blas is the most respected energy journalist alive and he just told every credentialed fund manager who does not understand crude oil spreads to refund their management fees. WTI above brent means the US domestic market is tighter than the international market. the reason is the speech. the speech said no US oil through hormuz. the US market just became a closed system. closed systems reprice higher.
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@peter_ziemann @jalistairclone @JavierBlas its nothing to do with arbitrage. Brent is trading Jun Futs, WTI is still May. The backwardation is so severe (and the roll up to spot) that May WTI briefly 'looks' like it is above Brent. If you look at the swaps markets you'll see the extreme expiry is somewhat levelled out
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Thanks. But I don't see the arbitrage. WTI delivery point is at the US Coast course. Brent in Rotterdam. So you need shipping between Rotterdam and Houston to fulfill contract. I learned: WTI delivery in May, Brent in June. In the reverse direction, i.e. May delivery on Brent, shipping to Houston for June delivery would make sense. On the assumption that both are 'sweet oils'.
But again, I am not 'CFA' and no crude oil dealer/broker.
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@MhehedZherting @adhib Ah, but we are making progress towards the future together. no? More open minded at last. In 2030, you will see I was right.
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@markheathuk @adhib Of course.
And its £1Billion cost will be recovered via our electricity bills.
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In about 8 weeks' time, our only remaining power station capable of converting coal to electricity will be destroyed.
These are choices made by men and women in parliament. Not engineers. Not national security strategists. Apparatchiks who went to uni and think Derrida is deep.
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@markheathuk @adhib Yeah, only a £billion. For just 1GW/8GWh.
That ‘1GW’ is its badged capacity. A derating factor will be applied by NESO to deem it contributing at just 40% - 90% of that badged rating.
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1. “This was a first of its kind event ..”
Yes, a timely wake-up call to all those who imagined a modern electricity grid could function safely and securely when fed by a predominance of non-dispatchable, asynchronous generation capacity that provides net zero grid-stabilising inertia.
2. “….and recommendations were implemented to ensure it doesn't happen again.”
Not quite. Recommendations have been made, and some have been implemented, in the hope that a peninsula-wide blackout doesn’t recur.
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@MhehedZherting @adhib This was a first of its kind event, and recommendations were implemented to ensure it doesn't happen again. Grids are evolving, and the regulatory framework too. No-one is pretending that progress doesn't involve a learning curve - surely it is better to look forwards not back
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Two can play the Red Herring game.
I refer you to the Spanish grid. Two weeks after boasting of running for a few hours on 100% renewables, it tried to replicate that achievement. Instead, it blacked-out its own grid, Portugal's and part of France's grid too. [A few hours after it decided that dispatchable, grid-stabilising gas generation wasn't needed.]
Game, set and match!
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@archer_rs don't worry. china began replacing the european economy long ago. you may not have felt it yet. just give it a few more years.
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The speed at which Europe is separating itself from the US is unprecedented. I doubt Trump has understood the trading impact this is going to have across the board for the US economy. Most Americans simply do not understand how deeply their economy and income is linked to the EU
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@adhib @MhehedZherting That’s why we also have interconnectors plus sizewell and Hinckley point, and offshore wind on two sides of an entire continental shelf. Come on guys, think forwards not backwards
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@markheathuk @MhehedZherting That's groovy for an hour or two.
It's orders of magnitude harder when you're looking at a regional dunkelflaute extending over several days.
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@HayekAndKeynes The dollar will also lose its position as the reserve currency, and all that that entails.
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This conflict will result in a stronger allied military. The US will no longer be the policeman of the world. The citizens never wanted that role. Europe will spend much more as will our allies in Asia.
The Long View@HayekAndKeynes
Forget the whole multipolar galaxy brain 💩 It all comes down to this: Europe needs to hurry up and decide if they are going to stand side by side with America or get on their knees for China… Without Europe America can’t still be Superman and there is no credible backing for SE Asian countries who want to resist China. If the west splits, they will all fall in line for Beijing. Europe can remain self absorbed with losing in Ukraine if they want, but the rest of the world (including Africa and the Middle East) is watching and waiting.
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@MhehedZherting @adhib I refer you to the California grid, which is currently using batteries to dispatch peak demand to the extent of the entire Portuguese grid.
You need to come and live in 2026. The water is lovely.
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True.
Also, there are shysters and frauds trying to con the gullible that their 'cheaper' 'insurance policy' does what their competitors' policies do.
Nothing is ’cheap’ if unavailable when needed.
Wind, solar & tidal cannot generate dispatchable, synchronous electricity, nor can they provide grid-stabilising inertia at no extra cost. Batteries do not generate prime energy.
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@MhehedZherting @adhib I do, but I dont always use the same provider. Sometimes there are new improved options available.
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@markheathuk @adhib Do you buy car & home insurance every year, even if you made no claim the previous year?
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@markheathuk @adhib I cancelled my home insurance. My house hasn't burned down yet.
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In case you missed Keir Starmer's address to the nation, he said:
We're not being dragged into a war.
Renewables are our saviour.
His dad had trouble paying the bills.
Renewables again.
More renewables.
And the punchline, he's dragging us back into the EU.
FFS.
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