


Brian Marron
1.1K posts









Oversimplifying causes of current fuel cost crisis risks enabling profiteers. In Ireland, prices rise faster & fall more slowly than elsewhere. The home-heating oil price spike that was eight times steeper than EU average suggests that we’re an outlier. independent.ie/opinion/commen…








Awesome bit of data that makes intuitive sense. “Finland cut VAT on haircuts in 2007 to see if cheaper prices would boost demand and jobs. But when the tax fell by €4, many salons lowered prices by only €2 and kept the rest as profit. When VAT rose again, prices jumped by the full €4, turning a temporary tax cut into a permanent price hike. It’s tax incidence in action: firms with pricing power pass on cuts partly, and hikes fully.” Source: buff.ly/9vkSfvn

Twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Today the number may be zero. Not because Iran mined the water. Not because a tanker was hit. Because Lloyd’s of London picked up the phone. War risk underwriters began canceling policies for strait transits hours after Operation Epic Fury launched. The Financial Times confirmed premiums surging 50 percent. Baseline war risk sits at 0.25 percent of hull value. For a hundred million dollar tanker that is 250,000 dollars per voyage. At peak escalation rates, one million per transit. Vessels linked to American or Israeli interests are becoming uninsurable entirely. No price. No policy. No passage. The KHK Empress was loaded with Omani crude heading for Basra when it executed a U-turn mid-strait and redirected to India. The Eagle Veracruz halted at the western approach carrying two million barrels of Saudi crude bound for China. The Front Shanghai stopped off Sharjah with Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam. Nippon Yusen ordered its entire fleet to avoid Hormuz. Greece told its merchant armada to reassess passage. Hapag-Lloyd suspended all transits. None of them were fired upon. Every one of them got the same call. More than fifty million years ago the Arabian plate collided with the Eurasian plate and compressed the Persian Gulf into a basin that drains through a single geological bottleneck twenty one miles wide. Twenty one percent of global petroleum. Twenty percent of all seaborne LNG. One fifth of industrial civilization’s energy supply forced through a tectonic accident narrower than the English Channel, bordered on one side by the country whose supreme leader was killed yesterday morning. The USS Abraham Lincoln carries enough Tomahawks to sink every IRGC patrol boat in 48 hours. Operation Praying Mantis crippled Iran’s operational naval forces in eight hours in 1988. The Fifth Fleet has rehearsed this scenario for decades. None of that matters. Aircraft carriers cannot force an underwriter to rewrite a policy. Tomahawks cannot lower a premium. The most powerful navy in human history cannot make a Lloyd’s syndicate decide that a VLCC transiting Iranian coastal waters represents an acceptable risk on a Saturday afternoon when missiles are landing in Dubai. Goldman Sachs estimates Brent could peak at 110 dollars per barrel. JP Morgan projects 120 to 130. At those levels every airline bleeds cash. Every central bank watches three years of inflation fighting reignite overnight. Bypass pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE handle roughly three million barrels. Hormuz handles twenty million. The math does not close. Iran figured out something the Pentagon still has not. You do not need to close a strait. You just need to make it uninsurable. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Hormuz is closed. Maduro was neither captured to stop cocaine trafficking nor for “Monroe doctrine.” Venezuelan oil was the only way to supplement the loss of Iranian oil.


"working hard used to get you something.. but now, working hard, what does that get you? .. life has changed. Instead of working for a nice life, we're working to line the pockets of billionaires. We are being bled dry" Part of Hannah Spencers acceptance speech


Pregnant horse raced to death on Irish road triggers call for ban thecanary.co/global/world-a…

