martinthe3rd

@NickAlinia Multitaskingen att hålla den kameran och samtidigt springa i fatt och brotta ner 🤯

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@JoeTegtmeyer Glossy looks better IMO! The color is much richer and with more depth

Cybercabs are multiplying at Giga Texas today, with some driving on the EOL test track, & a great opportunity to see a matte wrapped & production glossy gold versions side by side … great way to see the difference up close! About 40-50 Cybercabs all over the site today, including some testing out the factory exit to the W EOL facility routes, many of the prototypes at the Crash Testing facility today (possibly for recycling) and more! This short video clips show the test driving & comparison between the older and production versions!

@IterIntellectus Binging romance reality shows like Love is Blind, Bachelor, Love Island etc

what’s the female equivalent of a man playing video games?

@JesseTinsley Leverage the combined equity value? As in buying eBay and paying with eBay stock? You aren’t explaining this any better than Ryan 🤣

People fundamentally dont understand the financial system. You can leverage the combined equity value of the businesses to offer say ~ $55B with ~$10B of your own combined cash and $20B debt and $25b equity as the combined entity is worth ~$65b. One of the greatest interviews of all time. Ryan is just not having any of it haha

@FredLambert You're a hater because all your Tesla reporting is negative. That some of the negative news is correct (like this write-up) doesn't make it less so. And the reverse is equally true for hyperbulls.

It’s always funny to me that Tesla shareholders believe I’m a “hater” when it comes to the Robotaxi program when the reality is that Tesla’s Robotaxi is underperforming even my own conservative expectations — expectations that were seen as ridiculously negative by $TSLA . When Tesla launched the program in Austin last June, I thought that by the end of 2025, roughly six months in, Tesla would have about 100 unsupervised robotaxis operating in limited geofenced areas across a few Texas cities with minimal regulations. That was my “bearish” view. We are now a full year into the program, and Tesla has around 25 cumulative unsupervised vehicles, with only about 17 of which were active in the last seven days according to the tracker, and they are operating less than 30% of the time. Tesla is in a worse position than even my own view, which was considered absurdly pessimistic by the Tesla investment community. I can’t even say that I was right about how slow the Robotaxi would ramp, since it has been much slower than my own prediction. But I was certainly way more accurate than Elon and most $TSLA folks. Now there are some early signs of finally ramping up, but I have serious doubts that it will go hockey stick any time soon.

@Tesla_Analyst @M44_1RJ @elonmusk There is however a reason for this as I'm sure you know. Not saying that reason is fair whatsoever, but it is what it is. And it *could* have been avoided.

@M44_1RJ @elonmusk Waymo can get away with collisions, while Tesla’s famed FSD14 is being held to an impossible 100% edge proof standard. That is your wtf.

After 1 year, 20 cars unsupervised only and within very tight geofenced area? I thought Elon said hundreds then thousands across the country?no? $TSLA I'm seriously confused .. we trolled Waymo so bad.. wtf ? @elonmusk

@nymbusjp This is a question that hasn't really been answered by @aelluswamy afaik - how much tuning is needed for a different car body? We all know Cybertruck FSD was quite wonky at first, with curbed wheels etc. Thankfully it got sorted in the end, but after how much real world data?

My guess: For a while, a large portion of Cybercabs will still be built with a steering wheel. Why? They can only run fully unsupervised (no steering wheel) inside the current geofence where unsupervised Model Ys are already operating. That area simply isn’t big enough to absorb high-volume Cybercab production. So most of the early production will include a steering wheel. These vehicles will be used to: - Expand into new areas that are planned for unsupervised operation later, and - Collect real-world data to validate the Cybercab’s perception system. The steering wheels will be removed once those areas are approved for unsupervised service. Extra important detail: The Cybercab has a different camera layout than the Model Y. That means the neural network isn’t identical — it needs fine-tuning for the new camera positions. While Tesla does most of this tuning in simulation on Cortex, the first large-scale deployment is too important to rely only on simulation. By driving these early steered Cybercabs around the target areas, Tesla can directly compare the new perception model against ground-truth data collected by the validation vehicles (the ones with the big sensor rig on the roof). Better safe than sorry.

@flyboyscout @herbertong @SpaceX I'm not so sure. A few days trip to visit the moon colony? Sign me up! 6 months one-way trip to Mars, then (hopefully) another 6 months back? The transport alone is arguably worse than doing hard time, and substantially more risky. But maybe it's just me.

@martinth3rd @herbertong @SpaceX A one way ticket for a chance to establish a Mars Colony are you kidding me? They will have no problem filling 10 million seats

🚨 SpaceX sets $7.5T valuation goal for Elon Musk’s pay Musk earns equity only if @SpaceX hits $7.5T and major milestones like a 1M-person Mars colony and space-based data centers. The plan includes super-voting shares (10x power) and also ties rewards to building ~100 terawatts of compute in space. Link: reuters.com/sustainability…

@nymbusjp Awesome insights. This is what the @garyblack00 and @alojoh s of the world fail to understand.

@gnoble79 Pretty sure a "hater" is the one rooting for a company to crash, not the other way around.

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

@4sanjaymathew @JoeTegtmeyer Good thing you won't be parking these. Unless you're still living in @farzyness dreams

@JoeTegtmeyer Do you think the doors will be difficult to open in tight parking space?

Now that @Tesla has publicly announced the final Cybercab in bright, glossy gold and that production SOP (Start or Production) has happened, here are some views of several at Giga Texas today in the outbound lot. As you can visually see, these are very noticeably different from the wrapped engineering versions. These look so good out in the sun for the first time!

@Tutrifour This person needs to be in jail. If you were on a motorcycle you'd be dead

Cybertruck vs idiot

@squawksquare One moment he's "pumping the stock" and the next he "doesn't give a shit about shareholders". Which one is it

Looks like we got dupped on another $TSLA roadster event that was supposed to happen this month. Does Elon realize that if he were just honest and upfront with his timelines, the stock longer term would do much better and there would be less volatility. Oh, I forgot. He doesn't give a shit about shareholders. My bad.

@antibearthesis @Some_surfer In theory, all of it. Aside for for-fun drivers/motorcyclists etc, few people would accept increased risks of accidents in their commute, all else equal. Not even mentioning getting your time back instead of driving. Then pick your valuation for the humanoid robot project.

@Some_surfer how much revenue and profit do u think it will generate

Unpopular opinion: $TSLA is the most overvalued stock on earth Last 3 years performance: - 0% revenue CAGR - Constant earnings misses - Profit margin 15% → 3% - 50,000 unsold cars Meanwhile: P/E has gone from 34x to 365x Same company, 10x multiple What am i missing?

@garyblack00 The main fallacy here is assuming that generalized cost-effective FSD is as easy as making an Android phone by dissecting an iPhone. You simply cannot source the data for the FSD model like you source off-the-shelf phone chips. Waymo etc are advanced typewriters in comparison.

There’s no question in my mind that unsupervised autonomy will become the dominant ride-hailing form within a few years. Ride hailing platforms with drivers will likely become extinct within 5 years. By extension, autonomous driving will become one of the most popular add-on options when buying or leasing new vehicles. Where I have always disagreed with bulls is about the level of competitive intensity in unsupervised autonomy. Unsupervised autonomy will become table stakes to survive; those that can’t master it will not stay in business. But to think $TSLA will be the only one to master and scale unsupervised autonomy when $GOOG $BIDU $PONY $WRD and $AMZN are already completing 1.0M paid unsupervised autonomous trips per week without safety monitors is borderline head-in-the-sand delusional. When modeling TSLA economics one can’t take a capacity-based approach (# trips/day x # miles/trip x (rev - costs) per mile x # days/year). Instead one must forecast TSLA ride hailing economics based on autonomous TAM x projected TSLA market shares by market based on relative cost advantage, brand equity, and likely scale up since that will approximate Tesla demand rather than capacity. Absent advertising, TSLA may solve for and scale up unsupervised autonomy the fastest of all OEMs but may not capture their share of demand since TSLA doesn’t have the skills to communicate with and educate mass consumers in the same way $AAPL did in cell phones. Why does this matter? Stocks can’t sustain multiples of 200x+ EPS or 100x EV/EBITDA unless their franchises are uniquely scalable and unassailable. TSLA’s current 2026 P/E is 200x (rolling 4-qtr forward 190x) vs 2026-2030 forecasted compound EPS growth of +37% so a PEG of 5.4x. That math doesn’t work given PEGs of 2.0-2.5x for other megacap tech stocks. One can argue the market already discounts that TSLA will be one of a handful of OEMs that solves for generalized unsupervised autonomy. Hence our assertion that TSLA is a great company with a dominant franchise but a P/E that is way too rich.

@kylaschwaberow Funny that he made that post since @alojoh was blocking people left and right, including his own paying subscribers (!) for raising legitimate points on his suddenly negative-leaning TSLA thesis.

AJ has been less and less worthy of following over the weeks, nothing but self promotion and negative Tesla takes. Considered unfollowing for awhile but held off. Today I got all the signal I needed. 😂 See ya AJ👋

Robotaxi now rolling out in Dallas & Houston 🤠

Something big has changed at Giga Texas with Cybercab production … ~ 14 in the outbound lot WITHOUT STEERING WHEELS! Earlier this week, the production line has begun what we are all waiting for and I would expect to see many more starting on Monday, 4/20 🤠 A big step forward!

@Xil_llix @elonmusk @robotaxi Not just broken promises but wasted capital. Over $50B in write downs across Ford, GM and Stellantis - more than the projected cost of the fully built out Tesla Terafab.

Some people blame @elonmusk for being late on Tesla @robotaxi when every other Legacy manufacturer fumbled on their transition to BEVs. There is apparently no accountability for legacy manufacturers. Ford targeted a run rate of 2,000,000 BEVs by EoY26. Their current annualized run rate is 27,440, missing the mark by over 98%.🤦🏼‍♂️ GM targeted a run rate above 1M by EoY25, current off by nearly 90%. Here were the documented projections (thread) form the most important legacy manufacturers: