MastermindCam

Hersh broke the imminent war story last June beating every major media outlet, here he is again today saying escalation is imminent.

Seems pretty clear the Trump speech specifically the references to “finish the job” and previous war lengths was about setting the stage for more escalation not an off ramp. Assuming we have a rough 3 day weekend ahead of us.

@ZaidJilani But Zaid the problem is you cope about this in the UK and Europe too, you're rightly concerned about tribal hatred while not realizing that your blanket denials of patterns everyone sees fuel that very same tribal hatred by making people feel ignored.

Public posturing aside, in Iran Ghalibaf has a reputation for being irreligious opportunistic corrupt strongman, Trumps favourite kind of leader. Makes total sense that if there is a detente it will involve him.

Ghalibaf as defacto leader has incentive to deny talks until agreement is finalized, Trump has opposite incentive to calm markets, nothing is confirmed but the bears triumphantly retweeting denials don't understand geopolitics anymore than they understand markets. Embarrassing.

@RWApodcast ...Surely you understand the basic incentives at play right? That he has every reason to deny talks until agreement for max leverage the way Trump has incentive to play them up to calm markets? lol

iirc it was Ghalibaf, a hardliner and former IRGC aerospace commander, who announced "a new phase" after hitting Dimona and said that Iran would destroy energy facilities throughout the region if the US bomb Iran's energy infrastructure. I think the claim that this man was at the same time on the phone with Jared Kushner promising to denuclearize and open Hormuz is not very believable.

Update. Exactly as I assumed, Trump announcing deal Inc and the overweight longs amplified the move.

I’m short oil here, I don’t usually trade anything outside crypto but it’s crowded trade that is facing off against existential risk for US, more announcements will come this week to bring price down and the positioning will amplify downside when that happens.

@dukonomics :)

@mastermindcam uhh

in 2020 bears said it was depression inc, in 2022 it was the 70s come again, 2024 was recession, 2025 Trump tariffs would cause inflation spiral. But surely this time will be different and bears posting AI slop and retweeting Islamic Republic officials will be vindicated.

What seems more likely, that this a buying opportunity that resolves in a gigantic green candle, as has been the case for the last decade consistently, or that the people who have been saying "Stagflation" while getting blown out all cycle long are right and doom is here.

@chitowngirl1982 @yashar You are reducing broad social economic and geopolitical trends at the time to a binary framework because you are a simpleton’s.

@mastermindcam @yashar He lost because he was an oppressive dictator.

See what I mean? Pahlavi says this, but his transition plan, put together by his fascistic advisor Saeed Ghasseminejad, calls for him to have dictator-like powers for a two-year period (possibly more). That is left out of this tweet and many of his statements.

@chitowngirl1982 @yashar He left the country willingly rather than suppress dissent, he refused to assassinate Khomeini when everyone around him pressed for it, he was a dove compared to every single member of the security establishment, you have 0 idea what you’re talking about.

@mastermindcam @yashar Pahlavi'a papa was overthrown for a reason.

@chitowngirl1982 @yashar Because the primary issue in Iran is a deeply stupid incompetent government that has ruined the country, not the lack of elections. Normal people care about quality of life not the philosophies of governance.

@mastermindcam @yashar How is the Pahlavi dictatorship better than the current situation?

@JcardinaJ ? lol, this started the night of the war and can be tracked empirically.

@mastermindcam The ability of the human mind to always find a narrative for price action is unparalleled.

Crypto is outperforming gold and equities since the war started for a simple reason, lower trust world means trust-less assets get repriced higher and higher.

@erkoPollo This is bear cope, of course it's down massively HTF, that's why I specifically said 2026 and am obviously talking in a recent context.

@mastermindcam It will move up if the rest of the market moves up. But I think calling this outperformance is a bit of stretch.

I am also longing $TIA here, consistent outperformance in 2026, great structure, will benefit from eth etf inflows, plus the dumbest people in crypto hate it and have no idea how it works, as good as it gets confluence wise imo.

@0xR1ccardio Eth inflows expand the roll up economy, ETH price goes up > attention returns to ETH > developers and capital re-focus on the ETH stack. It’s second order eth beta.

@mastermindcam how do eth etf flows affect tia?

It sounds like cope but purely factually and substantively we are very early in the crypto timeline, survivors and true believers will be massively rewarded as always, the haters will be silenced, the normies will return. No doubt.

$BTC is superior to gold in every way possible, the disconnect is generational from the boomers that run central banks. People moving wealth around in times of crisis aren’t going to be using duffle bags full of gold bars, they’re going to be using the blockchain.