matej repa

$nflx už jen “kousek” a bude zas na zvážení😄

A quality valuation analysis on $NFLX 🧘🏽‍♂️ •NTM P/E Ratio: 30.42x •3-Year Mean: 34.87x •NTM FCF Yield: 2.61% •3-Year Mean: 2.41% As you can see, $NFLX appears to be trading below fair value Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~15% MORE in earnings per share & ~8% MORE in FCF per share🧠*** Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NFLX is a quality business BALANCE SHEET✅ •Cash & Equivalents: $9.32B •Long-Term Debt: $14.46B $NFLX has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 13x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio RETURN ON CAPITAL✅ •2021: 18.2% •2022: 14.9% •2023: 18.5% •2024: 24.3% •LTM: 29.4% RETURN ON EQUITY✅ •2021: 38.0% •2022: 24.5% •2023: 26.1% •2024: 38.4% •LTM: 42.9% $NFLX has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business REVENUE✅ •2019: $20.16B •2025E: $45.09B •CAGR: 14.36% FREE CASH FLOW❌➡️✅ •2019: ($3.14B) •2025E: $9.18B NORMALIZED EPS✅ •2019: $0.41 •2025E: $2.54 •CAGR: 35.52% SHARE BUYBACKS✅ •2019 Shares Outstanding: 4.38B •LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.26B By reducing its shares outstanding ~3%, $NFLX increased its EPS by ~3% (assuming 0 growth) MARGINS✅ •LTM Gross Margins: 48.1% •LTM Operating Margins: 29.1% •LTM Net Income Margins: 24.0% ***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠 As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~15% MORE in EPS & ~8% MORE in FCF per share Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NFLX has to grow earnings at a 15.21% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.21%) required growth rate: 2025E: $2.54 (28% YoY) *FY Dec 2026E: $3.24 (28% YoY) 2027E: $3.91 (20% YoY) $NFLX has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $NFLX ends 2027 with $3.91 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples 32x P/E: $125💵 … ~15.6% CAGR 31x P/E: $121💵 … ~13.8% CAGR 30x P/E: $117💵 … ~12.0% CAGR 29x P/E: $113💵 … ~10.1% CAGR 28x P/E: $109💵 … ~8.2% CAGR 27x P/E: $105💵 … ~6.3% CAGR As you can see, we’d have to assume a >29x multiple for $NFLX to have attractive return potential At 29x earnings $NFLX has ok CAGR potential At 30x $NFLX has attractive return potential without assuming any multiple expansion $NFLX remains the content king — with unmatched scale, global reach, & pricing power With a long runway ahead & shares modestly undervalued, I consider $NFLX an attractive consideration today at $93💵 (with little margin of safety) I consider $NFLX a strong consideration with a large margin of safety at $82💵, where I can reasonably expect ~13% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 27x ___ 𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️ 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

Ešte v stredu som si nakúpil nejaké callky spolu s commons na $S SentinelOne Budúci týždeň sú earnings. Spravil som tak po tom, čo som videl nezvyčajný option volume. Akcia naspäť získala 9 EMA a sme pri dolnom pásme rangu. Ide o také lotto, neodporúčam určite nikomu 😅 Veľkosť commons je 1% a opcii 0.4%, takže small size. Konkrétne som kupoval 19C Mar26 Ak budú výsledky dobré, stále viem naskočiť za vyššiu cenu.