MathematicianBetting

very true semi similar to the concept of level stakes profits. bar wanting to see positive edge at level stakes how many pts level stakes were made is somewhat meaningless. it only makes sense once you add to thinking what each pt of profit is worth in terms of your overall bank. I did a bit of number crunching about a year ago on our own guy’s past advices. What if every time he said each way instead the stake was placed win only. This increased both profit on turnover and level stakes profits. However using Kellyesque thinking about compounding a bank indicated the higher profit on turnover and higher level stakes profit approach was worse. In short lesser drawdowns with each way permitted more aggressive staking. Every point won then was more real world £ value. So yup 100% agree that strike rate is not the be all and end all. But if there were two methods both with 10% edge the 30% strike rate choice would be better at bank building than the 20% strike rate choice. Standard Kelly style thinking I guess. The old piece is here mathematician-betting.co.uk/win-or-each-wa…

People love shouting about strike rate. High strike rate means absolutely nothing on its own. You can hit winners all week and still be losing. You can hit fewer winners and absolutely print. The only people obsessed with strike rate are usually the ones hoping you never ask about profit.

Here is a link to an online copy of our free newsletter. mathematician-betting.co.uk/news/a-mix-of-… It includes a bit of research data into Saturday's Mares Novice Handicap Hurdle at Newbury #horseracing

I am not sure if this is inspired by the 16/1 ante post we advised on Gaelic Warrior for the Gold Cup or by the cruel gubbing dished out to ante post docket holders of Fact To File in the Ryanair Chase. Often it can be prudent to lay back some stake to hedge your risk. This little calculator with do the maths for you. mathematician-betting.co.uk/calculators/la…

@12Xpert Perhaps assume the biggest / most popular will be the one that has most impact on available odds. Then use a credible slightly different methosology alternate as input into setting one's own true odds calculations?

How can xG be used as a reliable metric for form analysis and prediction if there is so much variability across different sources?

Lemming Raping. A good thing? A bad thing? Or an individual moral choice? mathematician-betting.co.uk/newsletter/tha… #HorseRacing

November Handicap Trends OLDER HORSES Horses aged 7 or more Have a poor 1-64 record in this Only 1 has won since the 1970's He was very lightly raced horse EXPERIENCED / OVER EXPOSED Horses with over 20 runs Tend not to win this race If you go back to 2004 Horses with over 20 runs Have a poor 3-132 record Lots more nuggets to assist with sorting wheat from chaff in our free newsletter. See online copy at mathematician-betting.co.uk/newsletter/nov… #novemberhandicap #horseracing

@RacingPost Moray Smith sounds like an interesting bloke. I might even break open the piggy bank and go out and buy his book.

Meet the pro punter (and master of disguise) finally stepping out of the shadows after years of battling the bookies 🤝 Peter Thomas talks to Moray Smith, whose success has even brought him to JP McManus's attention 👀 racingpost.com/news/features/…

Munster National on Sunday and ALSO believe it or not an early horse for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. See mathematician-betting.co.uk/newsletter/too…

Anything that causes increased costs to punters is never good in my book. This feels a bit of a stealth tax on punters imposed by Arena. Punters will pay for it via increased bookmaker margins or through decreased consumer choice should some bookmakers not be able to accommodate the increased Arena fees. That said I would worry for MacBet if your idea is to offer your punters a highly restricted palette of courses they can bet at. Is there another way? I know zero about the details but two brainstorm ideas for you to ponder and potentially dismiss as silly might be #1 - running higher margin books only on Arena races. Highly publicise the why and highlight to punters why better value can be obtained on different courses. #2 - Stick to your current methods but add on highly publicised Arena tax fee to the stake on any Arena course selection. ( legalities of that to be checked ) Imagine if every bookie in the land did that. Would it influence a change in punter behavior away from ARC courses? And might that in turn influence change from Arena?

From October 1st, Macbet will no longer be able to offer betting on our website on any TRP (Arena Racing) racetracks. This is due to Arena Racing changing from charging us a fixed rate for their data to a turnover-based charge, which we cannot absorb under our business model, which allows winning customers.

@JamesJohnLovell People should start submitting sponsership names the BHA will probably veto. The veto then becomes news possibly gainign more publicity than it would have done otherwise. Inspired by the comments below, If I had a few £ to sponsor I might propose... "The Weak as Piss BHA Chase"

Just had two of our races names for tomorrows Proud to be Welsh Raceday sponsorship @ Ffos Las vetoed for being ‘too political’ by the BHA. They were… DragonBet Stands with Welsh Greyhound Racing DragonBet Proud Partners of the Valley Stadium

The latest newsletter provides some researched data for Saturday's Greatwood Gold Cup and for the Cheltenham Festival William Hill County Hurdle mathematician-betting.co.uk/newsletter/one… #CheltenhamFestival #HorseRacing

Check out the latest betting research insights for the Eider Chase at mathematician-betting.co.uk/newsletter/eid… - your edge for the big race! # EiderChase #HorseRacing

Some researched stats and opinions on Saturday's Peter Marsh Chase. mathematician-betting.co.uk/newsletter/pet…

@wayward_lad @chrisgambler247 @BetGameCouncil @BHAHorseracing @GamRegGB I am such a degenerate that it was not even my own money I gambled today. It was money intended by granny for my kids. It was done via a government endorsed gambling account called a junior ISA.

@mathbetting @chrisgambler247 @BetGameCouncil @BHAHorseracing @GamRegGB I did the same myself, had a £10k "wager".

AFFORDABILITY CHECKS MEGA 🧵 1. Gambling and racing turnover has been devastated since affordability checks came in around 2020. With regime change @BetGameCouncil @BHAHorseracing and a possible change @GamRegGB coming imminently there is a chance to turn things around.

My phone is a 15 year old nokia. It is a very very smart phone. With calls and sms only It hardly distracts me at all. It is helpful that being such a miserable old git no one ever hassles me with calls on it either :) The Battery is rubbish however. I have to charge it every single week.

Your life happens offline. Reclaim it today… By putting down your phone. Stanford research shows excessive screen time outside work can harm learning, memory, and mental health. Here’s how I’m trading scrolling for real-life experiences: Credit: Will McTighe

I think racing could benefit long term from some form of long term consistency of major race names. Without that, it is more of a confusing jumble that will make it harder for new followers to grow to love the sport. The short term cash of this years sponsor is of course needed but I do think it comes at long term cost. I think it would actually benefit Coral if it were known as The Coral Hennessy Gold Cup. If in a few years time the sponsor was Betfair.. Then The Betfair Hennessy Gold Cup etc. Tick the boxes of both this years funding and protect race brand name tradition at the same time. Coral could potentially get significant positive praise if they themselves were to propose such an idea for next year. Their PR team could fill the pages of the RPost with tales of how they want to protect the heritage of racing. Bland would revert back to something with brand recognition to many punters. I think there is probably long term benefit in racing authorities running some form of protected name regime for a group of certain races. Picture them as the crown jewels of future racing marketing however they have been taking needed cash from vandals with wallets who want to spray paint all over the recognised names. There should be some better middle ground. Perhaps to be put forward for such consideration a sponsor will have had to be in place for a long time. X years. Just a bit of brain storming.

...and instead of droning on with implied criticism for the new sponsors (who are actually the ones still supporting Racing), people should maybe focus on why the original sponsors ditched the sport. Just a thought.

The most boring people in Racing (and it's a strong heat) are those that insist on calling a race by its previous sponsor. "It will always be the Hennessy/Mackeson/Whitbread etc to me". a) no-one cares and b) no new sponsor is going to name the race after the previous sponsor!

@chrisgambler247 @MonacoProtocol @RacingPost @leemottershead @ThomasKerrRP @RacingTV @nickluck @LydiaHislop @AKBets It would interesting to see stats over a longer duration. eg Is the above just continuance of long slow and steady decline or is the sharp dip from the point of affordability checks very very clear on the longer term chart?

Its not just racing. Its has hit all betting. For the regulated sector, instead of a few whales gambling far more people will all lose smaller but regular amounts. It will move to high margin/low turnover sports/racing and slots betting. The whales will have to find other places to gamble.

🚨 Gambling Commission figures just out, when adjusted for inflation, show £3.2bn wiped off online horse racing turnover since affordability checks came in. 📉 -28% 📉 -£3.2bn 🏇devastated @racingpost @leemottershead @ThomasKerrRP @RacingTV @nickluck @LydiaHislop @AKBets @BarstewardsThe @racingblogger @MCYeeehaaa @BHAHorseracing @WilliamsStuart @bookies_dream @ anyone else who cares about British racing.

@chrisgambler247 @MonacoProtocol @RacingPost @leemottershead @ThomasKerrRP @RacingTV @nickluck @LydiaHislop @AKBets re "The whales will have to find other places to gamble" Well I guess the government will encourage them to go buy a wheelbarrow full of scratch cards. No KYC or affordability checks there.

re "every leader of people - ceo, governement" If the common man has AI to assist him in choosing who to vote for, perhaps the standard of World leaders will improve. Or a more pessimistic view could be - AI will assist poor leaders to do more bad stuff more quickly and efficiently.

You can train an AI to be whoever you need it to be by inputting just a few bits of info. Marc Andreessen thinks AI will make: • Assistants • Teachers • Coaches Available to everyone. But with all the extra time + technology, there's an even bigger shift for society: