Invisible Fist

Every one of the tech billionaires who stood behind Trump at his inauguration ceremony is getting their “Piece” in return for their obedience. Musk got DOGE, Bezos is getting Prometheus. What does that say about the legitimacy of the system? wsj.com/tech/jeff-bezo…

@Bogachan_1971 It’s “The Italian Job”

UK rates had one of the bigges move today Some front contracts moved 50 bps... Why? Mainstream explanation is there was an anonymous decision within BOE not to cut at all... That does not move markets 4-6 sigma... positions do. Remember the positions I told you about and was told that it was cleaned... apparently it was not in UK. But why did these "hedgefunds" all bet the same way again? Vanguard?

By the time the physical reality became undeniable, the gap between what the system reported and what was actually happening was so wide that no policy correction could bridge it.

had been so thoroughly corrupted by loyalty requirements that nobody in the chain could say “this isn’t working.” The reports going up said the harvest was fine. The harvest wasn’t fine. The reports said the Afghan campaign was progressing. It wasn’t progressing.

The Soviet parallel is the one that fits. Not because of ideology — because of the mechanism. The USSR didn’t collapse because of a single catastrophic event. It collapsed because the institutional apparatus that was supposed to provide accurate information to decision-makers…

You can’t build a coalition to address a crisis when half the coalition’s response to the crisis is “but the other side.” The physical layer will do what the political system cannot: force the reckoning. Brent doesn’t negotiate.

The Soviet system didn’t need everyone to believe the propaganda. It just needed the people with expertise to stop acting on their expertise when it conflicted with the party line. That’s Konrad.

That’s an act of war against your largest trading partner to suppress gasoline prices at home. Those are Chinese-purchased cargoes. Seizing them means seizing cargo that China has already contracted and paid for.

That Morgan Stanley table is the third-order effects map that should have been on every desk in the White House before February 28. It’s the institutional analysis that no longer exists in the building where the decisions are made.

“Trump had a plan and Israel wrecked it.” That’s more comforting than: “Nobody had a plan, the experts were fired, and the consequences are cascading beyond anyone’s ability to manage them.” The latter is the reality that nobody wants to accept today.

@johnkonrad You can sink every Iranian vessel on the open ocean and those 22 Indian ships are still stuck. The condition for passage isn’t military — it’s ‘return our tankers.’ No distant blockade addresses diplomacy by strait.

@johnkonrad It doesn’t. Iran blocked 22 Indian ships without firing a shot -just a condition return our tankers. Your framework solves a military problem. Iran is running a diplomatic 1. A distant blockade from the Arabian Sea doesn’t undo a bilateral demand at the mouth of a 21-mile strait

Welp, this demolishes @johnkonrad framework entirely. He wrote that Iran permits “Chinese, Turkish, Indian, and Pakistani ships.” That was true on Day 19 when he posted it. By Day 20, India’s access has been revoked based on a bilateral grievance.

@Nihimon @johnkonrad It is the central fact of his entire framework

@johnkonrad @matrbk lol - one changing fact, not relevant to thesis = thesis disproven! Clown logic

@johnkonrad @Papote_T “You can sink every Iranian vessel on the open ocean and those 22 Indian ships are still stuck. The condition for passage isn’t military — it’s ‘return our tankers.’ No distant blockade addresses diplomacy by strait.”

@Papote_T @matrbk 🎯

If I could sum this entire conflict up in one picture it would be this one: the allegory of the strait

Not gonna sugar coat this and do not care if it costs me my new Pentagon press credentials and access to this administration. The left smeared my name in a major WAPO hit piece and the right can do the same. I’m a captain, I can live alone in the ocean. 👉 The Strait of Homuz is an epic failure. Today’s news, no escorts until late month, has ramifications few understand. US Merchant Marine ships have been attacked. This is not panickan. This is not a damnation of Trump. This is hard truth 👇 A GLOBALIST MOLE INSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION CAUSED THIS We entered this admin with a set of maritime appointments & prospective appointments not seen since FDR… possibly Teddy. DEEP knowledge of shipping & DEEP maritime support. So how did we get to the most important energy and food (1/3rd of all fertilizer) chokepoint in the world getting cut off? Well our Trump 1.0 appointees were globalist heavy hitters. Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross managed ships for the Rothchilds. Our DOT secretary Elaine Chao, is married to Mitch McConnell & heiress to a shipping fortune tied to China. We already know how tied to the globalist Mark Milley was and Pete Buttigieg was McKinsey. Trump knew this & formulated a team of the best maritime advisors ever seen. A Dream Team & I know because most are friends of mine. ALL BUT FOUR HAVE BEEN SNIPED Who remains? Trump himself is a strong supporter. Hegseth has focused more on naval and shipping that any DoD secretary this century. Elbridge Colby understands the critical importance of the maritime domain Russ Vought has pushed the Maritime Action But what do these four have in common? They are all at THE center of the bullseye from MSM and globalist attacks. And all are extremely busy with other things. ALL OTHER MEMBERS OF THE MARITIME DREAM TEAM HAVE BEEN SNIPED OR SIDELINED JD VANCE - has worked tirelessly behind the scenes as for shipping deals including icebreakers. Strangely silent lately. Charlie Kirk - Assasinated Mike Waltz - author of the SHIPs for America Act… pushed out of NSC Dan Caldwell - top OSD official escorted out of the pentagon Alex Wong - Under at NSC and now shipbuilding executive axed Bruce Kimbrell- organizer of the SHIPs act axed from NSC Ian Bennitt - NSC maritime head, gone along with his staff Jerry Hendrix - NSC shipbuilding, pushed to OMB Brent Sadler - the #1 maritime think tank strategist in the world, sniped nomination as Maritime Administrator Morgan Ortagus - right hand to Witkoff, killed by a smear campaign Kristi Noem - absolutely saved the US Coast Guard and delivered the winning blow to the UN Maritime arm in London Sean Plankey - USCG is the lead on ship protection and regulations. He was Noem’s right hand man for reforms. Gone alongside Noem. Lou Sola - Federal Maritime Commission Chairman who was investigating globalist control of trade Jon Harrison - the Navy Chief of Staff who focused on sealift and Merchant Marine, fired. Sal Mercogliano - nomination killed to be the US Merchant Marine’s top Admiral Ross Kennedy - moved out of Commerce John Mills - buried in a minor office at state And yes me. And that’s just the big names. So many others with deep maritime expertise have been hit by this organized political action campaign. The only very senior person who hasn’t was a senior executive at Maersk. You can call me a crazy conspiracy theorist, you can explain rational reasoning for each snipe, but collectively this is damning Who is behind this systematic sniping? Wish I knew. Rumors range from the Deputy National Security Adviser who took effective control of the NSC from Waltz… to shadow figures in London. The only people I am 💯 certain are not behind this are Hegseth and Trump himself because everyone I talk to reiterate their continued support. This is why the Strait of Hormuz has become a disaster… Trump set up a Dream Team to target globalist control of shipping and that expertise has been gutted.

So, let me see if I understand this, you’re gonna ban the export of light sweet crude…that can’t be refined in the US because of the configuration of US refineries. And that’s supposed to help curb prices, where exactly? Definitely not in the US.

“The result is a political environment in which the President is more intellectually aligned with the least analytically sophisticated segment of the electorate while being made to appear the most sophisticated actor by coordinated information campaigns.” open.substack.com/pub/visiblefis…