2026 Prediction: the most under-reported, on-trend education story will finally see the light of day.
Trend: ESA marketplaces. Story: the supplier experience is laughably bad and will quickly make these marketplaces unusable.
The economics at work here are pretty simple. State gives a vendor $ Xm to run an online marketplace for homeschooling and homeschool-adjacent parents to buy education-related goods and services. State also gives parents $ X,XXX to spend in the marketplace.
Unlike say, Amazon, there is no incentive (other than altruism) for the marketplace vendor to increase the number of suppliers or deliver a user experience that makes vendors compete (like Amazon's star system). The marketplace vendor has a monopoly and the end user's dollars are only good in one store (that marketplace). To make matters worse, some states compensate the marketplace vendor on a per transaction basis, which, for no policy benefit, incentives the marketplace vendor to incentivize parents to make lots of small purchases.
Don't worry it gets worse. As a vendor you have no visibility into the parent experience on the marketplace. All you know is that you are approved by the state. You don't know if you're even visible in the marketplace. You don't know how you show up. You don't have any place to receive or respond to user feedback.
The coup de grace? Until recently, in at least one marketplace, you could get yourself on the top of the front page of listings by adding an A to the front of your vendor name.
I'm just getting started learning about all of this. I hope a real journalist takes the torch from me, so I can go back to helping kids learn how to read. But if not, you'll definitely hear more about this from me in 2026. And I'll have the difficult decision of listing ourselves as Once or AOnce. 🥂
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