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Matt O'Connor
5.6K posts
Matt O'Connor
@matty_
evolving private markets @legiondotcc | former Bridgewater, Techstars, Stacks
Katılım Ocak 2022
1.6K Takip Edilen15.1K Takipçiler
@jasonrope Marriage is a private arrangement involving two individuals. Men in women’s restrooms is not, moron.
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‘Gay people had decades to campaign for their own union which wasn’t our marriage. They didn’t want to. They very deliberately went after our (cís straight people) marriage instead’
Gender critical recycled homophobia now available in new colours 🏳️⚧️
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9 years ago today, 8 year old Saffie-Rose was taken to her first concert to see Ariana Grande.
She didn’t come home.❤️
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It's a sad state of affairs that common sense policies are seen as right-wing or MAGA
Says a lot about both sides.
Spencer Pratt@spencerpratt
If that addict on your street were your own son, what would you do? That is the defining question that guides my 5 step plan to fix the homelessness problem in LA. We *must* end this evil racket of corrupt politicians and NGOs who profit off the misery of these poor souls. They launder money and feed them more drugs, so they can keep their customers locked in this hell on our streets. We have a moral obligation from God to help them and make our city safe and clean for everyone. Karen Bass and Nithya Raman have forsaken this city. Time for real leadership. Time for real compassion.
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The @SpaceX IPO is going to be the largest in history with 30% allocated to retail, 3-6x the typical amount reserved for the little guy.
But the biggest winner? Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley has been Musk's house bank for 15+ years. They led the $12.5B margin loan for the Twitter acquisition. They run a special lending program letting SpaceX employees borrow against their vested shares at the $350B+ valuation. Musk's personal borrowing against his holdings funds his lifestyle, acquisitions, and ventures - standard buy-borrow-die mechanics. Morgan Stanley is on the other side of all of it.
And now they're the stabilization agent and retail allocation lead on the IPO itself.
Loans backed by private stock are loans backed by a number a private board approved. No daily mark. No liquid market. SpaceX was valued at $46B in 2020, $350B in 2024, $1.75T heading into the IPO. Morgan Stanley extended credit against every step of that climb. If the valuation ever stopped climbing, they'd be sitting on a massive loan collateralized by an asset they can't sell on the open market.
Morgan Stanley needs this IPO more than anyone. But this IPO is a lot more than just collateral becoming liquid.
Earlier this year, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq quietly dropped their profitability requirements for index inclusion. SpaceX runs at a net loss. Under the old rules, no index eligibility. Under the new rules, immediate inclusion on listing. Every fund on earth that tracks the S&P 500 becomes a forced buyer from day one.
Morgan Stanley lends against private shares for 15 years.
The IPO converts that exposure to liquid collateral.
Index rule changes create trillions in mandatory, price-insensitive buying.
And your 401(k) - without anyone asking you - becomes the other side of Morgan Stanley's trade.
Underneath all this is a genuinely great business. Starlink is the fastest-scaling telecom in history, and no one in their right mind would short anything Musk touches (Grimes' record sales perhaps being the sole exclusion).
But the market-structure question is worth understanding separately from the fundamentals. Morgan Stanley is converting 15 years of concentrated private-market lending into a position backstopped by forced index demand. And your 401(k) is on the other side of that trade whether you want to be or not.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
It's official. SpaceX is going straight to retail investors. "Certain of the shares of Class A common stock offered hereby will, at our request, be offered to retail investors," SpaceX says in their S-1 filing today. These shares will be available through Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi Securities, and ETRADE. Retail will have a huge role in this historic IPO.
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In the Q1 earnings call $DGXX management was asked about revenue projections for the next 3 years.
This is Michel Amar's (CEO of the company) answer:
- 2027 > 90 MW in colocation + 10-12 MW of GPU as-a-service > $300m a year run-rate
-2028 > additional 50MW of colocation and 20MW of GPU bare metal > $450-500 m a year run-rate
- 2029 > additional 100MW of colocation and additional 50MW of GPU bare metal > $800-1000 m run rate per year.
This means $DGXX could be a $10B company in 2029 applying a 10 p/s.
Today the market cap is $530m and the company has approximately $125 million in cash and cash equivalents and $15 million in digital assets.
We are so damn early and $DGXX could be one of the greatest opportunities in the whole stock market right now.
Gus - The Italian Investor@fedex774
I'm long $DGXX since $3.6. This might be one of the most asymmetric AI infrastructure plays I've ever seen. Sub-$500M market cap. $2.5B potential contract. 400 MW of secured power. A co-founder who ran Verizon. Could this be a 100x? Let me show you why I think so. 🧵
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Being in crypto for 10 years means randomly finding $20,000 accounts you forget about one day and then losing $100,000+ in a DeFi hack the next.
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It's been a long time since a major token launch in the Stacks ecosystem, but $ZEST pulled off a seamless launch with good volume, price action, and exchange support.
Congrats @TychoOnnasch @ZestProtocol
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Selling children to survive: Afghan fathers forced to make impossible choices bbc.in/49UQzLU
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@MarlowNYC @bivens83306 and is the truth that he voluntarily left LA to move to Santa Barabra as you're implying?
Or do you not have an ability to tell the truth? That still matters I'm told.
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@bivens83306 the truth, and the ability to tell it, still matters — i'm sorry you've lost sight of that
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@GravityAnalyti1 Already seen one case of co hiring junior devs to write initial code to save on token cost.
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Been saying this since 2022. Companies are going to replace head count with AI. AI is going to fail to show cost savings. And companies are going to have to rehire workers. Profits will be hit on the leading and lagging end of the cycle.
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Come on @elonmusk @nikitabier this is ridiculous. How can elected officials mute their replies?
At the very least only allow comments from other countries to be turned off. Enough is enough of Khan’s bullshit.
Sadiq Khan@SadiqKhan
We will continue to choose hope over fear, and unity over division.
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@DrNickA Even creepier UK def throttling X traffic today. Connect to VPN it loads instantly no problem, other sites with no VPN no problem.
Only X with no vpn is slow
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@DrNickA Or is this their excuse for why they need to push it through?
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This is actually why they want to blitz digital ID
The Telegraph@Telegraph
Benefit claimants were overpaid almost £10bn last year amid a rise in fraud by welfare cheats. Overpayments because of fraud and error totalled £9.9bn in the financial year to April, up from £9.4bn in the previous 12 months, according to the Department for Work and Pensions. 🔗: telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/…
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@oneill_c Prompting will never replace fine-tuning, but won't the fine-tune models still be built on the frontier base models?
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Where does this Somali arrogance come from?
They have a failed state, one of the lowest average IQs, and some of the highest welfare enrollment rates.
Aaboom16🇸🇴@aaboom16
They are so scared of Somalis coz they can’t compete
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It is better to have owned SpaceX and lost, than to never owned it at all.
- Shakespveare probably
Nick Davidov@Nick_Davidov
A friend just shared in confidence - they bought SpaceX through a 2 layer SPV in 2021. The returns are supposed to be worth any fees, the only problem - the SPV manager stopped responding to emails or calls. They do have some of the docs for the purchase, but they don’t know who else was in the SPV, don’t know the L1 SPV manager, or if they even can go to court with this (or whether SpaceX might want to fight such transfer). Be very careful with SPVs.
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@Bkclaims how can they do 0/0? are you paying a fee to get in this syndicate/mailing list?
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There seriously needs to be more regs in this space. For real. 48 hours after “Anthropic Sharegate” and I get this in my inbox. Entire secondary markets openly selling access to these names while everyone pretends this ecosystem doesn’t exist until it suddenly becomes inconvenient.
The funniest part is nobody even disputes the market exists anymore.
Shameless.
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Secondaries have become the highest-returning private market strategy.
And that tells you everything about the state of primary liquidity.
The most aggressive shops in private markets right now have one trade on. Buy other LPs' positions at a discount, sit on them, wait, mark up, or even flip.
Why is this happening?
Because the "clogged exit" thesis IS the secondaries opportunity. When DPI on 2018-2021 vintages collapses and LPs need cash they can't extract, they sell positions at discounts. Secondaries funds buy at those discounts. The bigger the liquidity crunch, the better the entry price. Volatility in the underlying portfolio companies barely matters compared to the size of the discount and the trend in valuation at each round.
The market is paying you to take the other side of clogged exits. In a healthy private capital market, that should be a niche strategy generating maybe 100-200 bps over PE. Today it's generating 1500 bps over the S&P 500 in a single vintage.
For LPs, three things follow. Most institutional portfolios are underweight secondaries relative to what the data now justifies. The right way to position the strategy is as the buyer in a forced-seller market.
2024 was the strongest secondaries vintage in fifteen years.
The 2025-2026 vintages will probably capture the rest of the dislocation before the spread compresses.
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