Tom McClellan

"Everyone times the market. Some people buy when they have money, and sell when they need money, while others use methods that are more sophisticated." - - Marian McClellan (1934-2003), co-creator of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index twitter.com/JDMMIG/status/…

@ApeGator @NightSkyToday Same for the widely circulated Fibonacci Pigeons meme. Does not survive examination.

@McClellanOsc @NightSkyToday

Is math our invention or a discovery?

@ApeGator @NightSkyToday A nautilus is often cited as an example of a Fib spiral, and this is not true. It does not match the Fibonacci Ratio in its expansion. Check it out and see for yourself.

@McClellanOsc @NightSkyToday Nautilus

@Peter_Atwater If they shrink any more, they will be a sole proprietor.

@Peter_Atwater There is a joke in this about being well-heeled, but it just won't congeal in my head yet.

Have they considered becoming a shoe company?

Is this just propaganda from England's shrimp harvesting industry, trying to boost shrimp sales by pointing out accessory features of their product?

Your message is self-contradictory. The vehicles will not be more "affordable". The vouchers just shift the cost to someone else (i.e. the taxpayer).

@charliedotts True, but the reaction of the stock market is much more easily measured and quantified than the other effects.

@McClellanOsc There are consequences to QE outside the stock market. In using the simplistic view that the only goal is stock gains and/or employment, the only conclusion is to do permanent QE

Kevin Warsh is emphasizing during his testimony that he favors shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, although he is wisely staying away from offering specifics. Let's look at the history of attempts to do that. QT1 started in early 2008, and it exacerbated the severity of the GFC that year. It led to QE1. Just the act of stopping QE1 in early 2010 led to the May 2010 Flash Crash, eventually leading to QE2. Just the act of stopping QE2 in June 2011 led to a 19% price decline, and banking stress, leading to Operation Twist and eventually QE3. The Fed learned its lesson, and "tapered" its ending of QE3 but that still led to economic turmoil in late 2015. Things stabilized for a while in 2016-17, leading the Fed to think it could safely start QT2 in 2018. That led to more economic turmoil, especially in Q4 2018. Covid brought QE4. The Fed ended that and started QT3 in 2022, causing a bear market and a shrinkage of real GDP. They eventually tempered that by doing a big unwind of the $2.5 trillion of Reverse Repos from Q4 of 2022 to Q4 of 2025. Stopping the RRP unwind exacerbated the tariff crash of 2025. Now we are in QE5, and liquidity is doing great. NYSE A-D Line is making new all-time highs, along side the major averages. Manufacturing employment is finally starting to tick higher. Given the lessons of 3 different rounds of shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, and their bad outcomes, I am not sure how Warsh thinks he can somehow do it better.

@DanTaifer Don't blame me for your drinking problem. 😉

@McClellanOsc So happy I was not taking a sip of coffee when I read this. Would have shot it out my nose. Great!

The dollar (well, cheaper anyway).

@Peter_Atwater "Why don't we do it in the road?" - - Paul McCartney

I suppose this is where the rubber really meets the road...

If you want $3/gallon gasoline in the US then a barrel of oil (WTI) needs to be~$60 10 years of data in figure below <$50 WTI: all weeks <$3 $50-$60: 92% of weeks $60-$70 WTI: 17% of weeks >$70 WTI: no weeks <$3 Data via EIA

The Foundation for the Study of Cycles @studyofcycles conference is coming to New York at the end of May. Details here: cycles.org/cycles-in-the-… They have lined up a great slate of speakers including yours truly. I think this is going to be a great conference. See you there?!

@Mazifx_ The two items in the chart I shared.

@McClellanOsc Which two? Need context to know what's unusual here.

What is unusual is that these two historically have an inverse correlation.

@MichaelKantro I guess I am not really understanding your point then. Could you state it more plainly?

@McClellanOsc That’s not the point - I’m talking about why the relationship exists more often than not across history, and why it didn’t in 01 and 08

@MichaelKantro That's true about 1991-92, and it was not good news for Bush41's reelection prospects. If you want to see what unemployment really correlates to, read: mcoscillator.com/learning_cente…

@McClellanOsc For starters- happened in 1991/92 most recently - take a look at that one and let’s discuss.

@MichaelKantro I have. The latest part of this relationship is anomalous, which was my point.

@McClellanOsc Look closer

@AlmanacTrader That June 1987 instance is a heck of an asterisk.

Although NASDAQ’s daily winning streak ended at 13, its outlook for the next month remains positive. One Month after previous daily streaks reaching 13 days, NASDAQ was higher 100% of the time with an average gain of +1.75%. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/814454212…