Maciej D

@Skidmarkzzz124 @CalumLewis Started well today, but…

@CalumLewis @mcdudek13 I mean I love what they’re doing, I feel they should just be more transparent to shareholders. Really comes down to this upcoming earnings for me

$ODD down ~9% isn’t pretty Any news?

@Lukasz_on_GPW Oby, bo dobry nastrój majówkowy jest delikatnie zagrożony 😆

@mcdudek13 myślę, że większego ruchu nie będzie. Rynek raczej wiedział, że 25 jest do zapomnienia i gramy o lepsze jutro, które ma zacząć sie w H2 26.

Wybrane dane i wskaźniki finansowe #Cognor za 2025

@KrzysiekDrozdz @Lukasz_on_GPW I tak i nie. Warto wziąć pod uwagę koszty inwestycji, które poczynili.

@Lukasz_on_GPW Ta spółka jest niesamowita po prostu. Cła, rosnące ceny, zbrojenia, a i tak rosnące straty 🙄

@Lukasz_on_GPW Pozostaje mieć nadzieję, że wszystko co najgorsze za nami. Zobaczymy co przyniesie 15.05. Jeśli nic się nie zmieni to chyba trzeba wychodzić

@weary_centurion How do you count that? Referring to the data from Investing.com it’s like 79% of average volume from last 3 months

@mcdudek13 30%ish

$ODD Thin volume today, around 23% of the daily average Low conviction selling Likely algorithmic combined with short selling Shakeout? Maybe…

@Skidmarkzzz124 @CalumLewis I’m afraid that if such session happens, the buyback stopped which isn’t a good sign

@mcdudek13 @CalumLewis I’m really just hoping earnings gives us some clarity

@CalumLewis It’s definitely going to be my biggest loss of f nothing positive happens. I’m worried what’s going on today

@CalumLewis They keep testing my patience so much. It’s my 2nd biggest position, I entered just before the financial results. Since then I’ve been adding and my average is 22.50. Still very painful

@mason__capital I keep holding but I’m getting more and more concerned honestly. Additionally it’s such a tough day today

@mcdudek13 Maybe in the short term. I am taking a longer view here SC has a ton of runway. It can hit 1B/yr by 2028 at this pace I'm confident IM will eventually find success again on Meta Plus, Oddity proved again it can launch and scale brands in house. That's immensely valuable.

Spoiledchild may be at a $350M to $400M run rate based on these numbers & other supporting evidence from Trends data At the low end, that’s 40% growth on a $250M base Explosive Oddity is transitioning from a beauty business to a technology-enabled wellness company $ODD

@CalumLewis @mason__capital I’m considering trimming my position before the report honestly. It doesn’t look good

Yes thanks for this one, as I suspect yesterday on the other posts, I figured they can't get Meta to work (probably got basically shadow-banned). If this is still the case, then I am serious concerned that their pixel + site domain is entirely damaged. (I did read about this before) in which case, there might be little they can do but rebrand, new pixel etc. Which makes sense why they might have moved All Ad spend to the other brands already.

$ODD data to challenge my thesis from yesterday According to Similarweb, 80% or more of paid traffic to Il Makiage is from–– Pinterest Youtube X/Twitter Only ~6% from Facebook and Instagram Meta is just not working for IM Meanwhile, Spoiledchild and Methodiq are 100% Meta

@OddityOddballs Honestly I’m quite worried about market reaction after earnings. It seems the algorithm issue isn’t solved so I’m afraid we can go back to 12-13. I counted on quicker solution.

My take on where $ODD currently stands and where I think it is going. Spoiledchild: strong acceleration in the second quarter, almost certainly ahead of market expectations. I would not be surprised to see this brand deliver around $300-350m this year given a slow start, but sustained momentum. METHODIQ: very strong start to the brand, almost certainly far ahead of market expectations. I would not be surprised to see this over $100m this year, which would be the most successful DTC start in history and twice SpoiledChild. However, my forecasts are mostly based on search activity relative to SpoiledChild, which gets a lot less search activity per unit of revenue than Il Makiage. If I were to compare it to Il Makiage (which could make sense given the focus on foundation) this would imply a more muted first year. However, I think the broader dermatology service and offering delivers much higher average revenue per user, thus my bullish lean. Brand 4: likely postponed atm based on job listings that say it will launch next year (might be erroneously copied from earlier job listing) and Oran saying only 8 new molecules will be launched this year, which implies Brand 4 won't be launched this year (Brand 4 was supposed to launch with new molecules and between METHODIQ, SpoiledChild and Il Makiage, there should already be 8 new molecules launched this year). Il Makiage: likely worse than market expectations. We have seen no real improvement in search interest. Based on historical card data and implied churn there, I think it will tip below $400m this year, as things stand currently. The $1b target by 2028 seems well off the table. On balance though, this implies growth or flat revenue for this year, which is well ahead of market expectations. Moreover, if $ODD delivers this, then growth rate expectations for next year will likely also need to be adjusted upwards as well. Currently FY2027 revenue forecasts are for $800m. I expect it will be closer to $1b. Now so important caveats. First some simple mechanical ones. Much of this is based on search activity. Given changes to the TBYB program, we may have lower conversion per search. $ODD may also still be suffering from higher CAC per impression or click. To truly know what's happening, we need to know the unit economics and those aren't typically disclosed with sufficient granularity. It will be important for management to provide qualitative commentary, like whether $ODD is back to first-order profitability. Soft signs like buybacks and hiring activity, as well as $ODD's history of fiscal discipline suggest ROI on ad spend is there though, at least for SpoiledChild and METHODIQ. Second, these dynamics are not static. So far, I think $ODD's attempts at bringing a new low-friction buying experience to market have been lackluster. In SpoiledChild and METHODIQ TBYB is back for certain higher intent customer journeys. But $ODD isn't prominently advertising a new satisfaction guarantee to take TBYB's place, like Prose has with its Prose Promise. Current texts have punctuation errors and poor English grammar. Other possible fixes include switching from Braintree to another PSP that wouldn't place holds on the cards of as many people, introducing BNPL, doing more with loyalty programs, gifts, etc. Third, although the market would likely consider the net scenario between the different brands positively for the share price, I would consider it a net negative to the value of the company. If SpoiledChild and METHODIQ take over growth from an impaired Il Makiage, then that's pulling forward future growth for those brands. The growth runway doesn't get extended. I would really like to see a promising trajectory to get Il Makiage back on track.

@investingbyGenZ I’m a shareholder but I wouldn’t be so sure it means the issue solved. It can even mean it’s the other way around. The main issue referred to TBYB from Il Makiage. If they focus on SpoiledChild it is possible they cannot fix the uszu with TBYB

$ODD is clearly seeing good traction for SpoiledChild! $ODD has managed to keep growing the search interest for SpoiledChild despite the difficulties they reported about earlier this year. Keep in mind that usually they start seeing lower search volumes this of the year It seems that Liquid Collagen is the main driver, up 20-30% YoY. Are the issues solved?

@ExampleInvest11 Are you sure we will see the results on Tuesday? I can’t find any details about that

Sitting on 25% gains in $ODD going into Tuesday earnings and genuinely don't know what to do. I bought after the 85% crash. The thesis was simple — market overreacted, underlying business is intact, buybacks signal management conviction. It worked. Now I'm the one to decide 👇 👇

@UnveiledZenith Very promising 🤞🏻

@corgi_inwestor @KamilZamojc @DPackowski @RafSkrzypczyk Dziś zupełnie inny obraz, prawda? 😉

@corgi_inwestor @KamilZamojc @DPackowski @RafSkrzypczyk Patrzysz tylko na ten jeden dzień. Ja akurat mam Cognor i oprócz dzisiejszego dnia to chyba ja jednak miałem ten najbardziej upośledzony walor. Nie był taki zły ten Bowim ostatnio 😉

UE zamierza podwoić cła na import stali spoza UE, w tym z Rosji Cognor +7 proc. Stalprodukt +1,7 proc. MFO +2,45 proc. Bowim +0,7 proc.