Mason

Update: Il Makiage rolled out a completely new collection of Meta advertisements on May 1st 100% were posted on May 1st, and most of them seem to be fresh content as well $ODD

$RIVN Excited for the launch of the R2. Latest earnings call did not give us much new information, which I suspect is why shares have traded down Patience will be a virtue with this one I believe RJ & team are building an incredible brand and business

@weary_centurion I think it’s helpful to stay on top of short interest Personally I wouldn’t want to see management use debt to finance stock repurchasing Leave that to operating cash flow

@mason__capital Do you have any thoughts on the share structure? Sometimes I feel like it’s just me who looks at this stuff haha

$ODD SHARE STRUCTURE UPDATE Shorts are likely increasing their positions running into Q1 earnings presumably in anticipation of a terrible quarter and a further sell off As of April 15th 5.24M shares were sold short up from 4.58M as of March 13th Estimations of the float vary but it’s universally reported as around 40M meaning the short interest is believed to be around 11-15% In reality I believe the float is probably closer to 10M (maybe even less) due to a significant proportion of shares locked up by the CEO and major shareholders: CEO: 24.3% Baillie Gifford: 15.8% Morgan Stanley: 10.4% L Catterton: 7.8% FMR LLC: 6.9% CFO: 1.6% Remaining execs: 0.3% Total ownership: 67.1% Last reported share count: 56.6M 67.1% ownership of that: 38M shares If these are all long holders (most of them are) then that leaves a maximum float of around 18.6M That would put current short interest at 28%, more than double what is reported Here’s where it gets really interesting: We know they deployed $50M since Q4 earnings in the $11-13 range That’s around 4M shares which can be deducted instantly from the OS On the first day of the new $200M buyback program we know they deployed $5.5M which is around 400K shares So we know for certain that around 4.5M shares have already gone leaving a maximum of around 52M shares This makes the new maximum float around 14.1 and the new short interest 37% Now…if management were aggressive enough to deploy $50M between March 2nd and March 12th when they authorised the new buyback program and then $5.5M on the first day, I would be highly surprised if they have not deployed a substantial amount of that $200M Let’s look at some potential scenarios: 1. $100M deployed at an avg. cost of $14 would remove 7M shares 2. $150M deployed at an avg. cost of $14 would remove 10M shares 3. $200M deployed at an avg. cost of $14 would remove 14.M shares This would mean the float could be as low as: 1. 7M shares 2. 4M shares 3. Less than 1M shares Even in scenario one, this makes the new short interest is 75% If my calculations are anywhere close to accurate, this could be setting up to be one of the biggest powder kegs of all time If they have deployed the entire allocation, float could be none existent and short interest could be in excess of 100% Yahoo finance reports institutional ownership of the float at 107.5% and that’s with an estimated float of 39M When this happens, you get an extremely volatile setup Now I’m not making any claims or predictions around price action, I do not do that. And I am not relying on a short squeeze. This is a long hold for me. But I do find the share structure and short interest mechanics fascinating here This is pure entertainment for me. I have honestly never seen anything like this. Usually this sort of share structure could be found on a company in its death throes which could legit go to zero, and even then rarely Never have I seen such a company with such a solid fundamental and financial structure trading likes it’s going out of business Bankruptcy risk here is almost zero The current market cap is reported as around $850M but I estimate it to be substantially lower at around $700M, still below its last reported $776M cash position I predict they have used a combination of cash and their $350M revolving credit facility to execute the buybacks (which was upsized earlier this year) They were ready for the scenario and I am impressed at the surgical precision with which they have acted Excited for Q1, regardless of result. I’m not hoping for much, but I do think the absolute worst is likely priced in here It’s going to very interesting. Excluding an apocalypse scenario, I cannot see anything beyond a retest of $10.80 to the downside Having said that, anything can happen and that’s why I don’t make predictions. Facts before feelings always This is not financial advice My content is educational and free I work for nobody Views are my own

@OddityOddballs What a nice looking chart Didn’t Munger say “Buy hockey stick charts at fair prices” Or something

Is it good for SpoiledChild to be growing this fast? Typically, when companies start growing above, say, 20-30%, inefficiency creeps in across the board and things start to break as companies need to constantly hire and train staff in sales, customer support and operational fulfillment. With $ODD, growth doesn't face too much friction. Yes, it does need to grow customer support staff in line with the rest of the business but this isn't a technically difficult job to train. And likely $ODD has spare capacity at Il Makiage that can be moved over. Sales staff barely has to grow. Yes, they can make more types of ads, but typically, they can just push the buy button on existing meta ads. Operational fulfilment is likely the hardest to scale. Input materials will need to be sourced, manufacturing capacity secured and logistics capacity arranged. These require some preparation but they're doable within a matter of weeks or months, if need be, by flying things in or drawing down inventory, while placing larger orders. Although $ODD likely didn't foresee the need to grow SpoiledChild as it has, once they did recognize the need for growth, they could plan for it with high levels of accuracy because demand is a direct output of their marketing spend.

@countshelly @ContrarianCurse i run the monetary system

@mason__capital @ContrarianCurse jew

There is a real chance that for something like Figma you see very little seat loss because the product already existed mostly at the taste layer And then you enable through AI models the ability for non-technical designers to also join the collab / network effect There is a chance it expands the TAM honestly

@countshelly @ContrarianCurse shmohawk

@ContrarianCurse have you tried gpt image 2? figma will go to zero

The inevitable price reversal of Figma will be glorious

No other public company ships at this pace Not Robinhood Not Duolingo Not Snowflake Not Palantir Not Adobe, well obviously In terms of product velocity, Figma is in its own league $FIG

Mr. Market is a neurotic psycho that will quote you different prices for your assets every trading day This is especially true for small cap / low volume names like $ODD Build a thesis and know your assets well!

@CalumLewis Mr. Market Small market cap and low volume means that price action will be volatile The best analogy is if a crazy man walking buy your house offered you 10% less one day, 10% more another day Would you take it seriously? Same thing here

$ODD down ~9% isn’t pretty Any news?

@investingluc 🫡

You might be forgetting about this connection. Amazon just invested $25B in the goliath of AI...which is anthropic. Ok. But most people are forgetting that Amazon is the largest shareholder in $RIVN too. Almost ~15% ownership. Huge customer as well. Is this spider web going to connect? Regardless, $RIVN had a little teaser +50% run late in q4 of last yr...but weekly trend is still up and it's TIGHT. Robotics angle. $AMZN ties. Noticeable uptrend. $RIVN is currently $17. I like.

@CalumLewis Thank you sir!

Worth checking out @mason__capital if your falling along with $ODD

@il_value it doesn't per say –– hopefully these new ads work, the CAC issue is solved, and customer acquisition from Meta picks up again. we just don't know for sure.

@mason__capital yep. so why contradicts? just the other side of the coin

$ODD data to challenge my thesis from yesterday According to Similarweb, 80% or more of paid traffic to Il Makiage is from–– Pinterest Youtube X/Twitter Only ~6% from Facebook and Instagram Meta is just not working for IM Meanwhile, Spoiledchild and Methodiq are 100% Meta

@rocksmani3 @zoink True, but I trust in @zoink

@mason__capital @zoink In fact i think any Mag7 or any other AI company can buy Figma instead with a 20-25B given the growth potential. AI companies have compute n R&D budget to monetize it further and accelerate

Idea: Figma should buy Paper (or something similar) or copy in-house Call it Figma Agent A canvas-based editor for hi-fidel assets made in code, which more naturally interoperates with coding agents Then, build a conversion layer between Agent & Design cc: @zoink $FIG

Excited for Shopify, DTC brands, and ecosystem providers to be trendy again $SHOP

@AnasKaratela7 left with the proportions of right

Designers, let's settle this: Delete icon - Left or Right?

@il_value Yes! I actually have a post on this. Great point

@mason__capital I think they did not do ads on Meta during 02/03 and most of 04. Just fired up ads again a week ago..

@_tomeramit FB Ad Library. All public

@mason__capital Thanks for sharing, how do you get this kind of data?

$ODD Every winning Il Makiage ad (by impression count) is less than 3 weeks old Of the top 24 winning ads, 50% < 3 days old This is a complete refresh of Il Makiage's ad library. And on Meta ads, content is king A signal that Meta targeting issues may be solved

@mcdudek13 Maybe in the short term. I am taking a longer view here SC has a ton of runway. It can hit 1B/yr by 2028 at this pace I'm confident IM will eventually find success again on Meta Plus, Oddity proved again it can launch and scale brands in house. That's immensely valuable.

@mason__capital It would be great if IM wasn’t so affected. In this case it can be not enough

Spoiledchild may be at a $350M to $400M run rate based on these numbers & other supporting evidence from Trends data At the low end, that’s 40% growth on a $250M base Explosive Oddity is transitioning from a beauty business to a technology-enabled wellness company $ODD