
Ofek Meir
285 posts




I am not selling $sivef. 有人和我一起吗?



Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.


I personally think $SIVE ends up a $10B+ company in 2027, so 8-10x. $LITE did go from $2.8B to $80B in 2 years, so not really impossible do a 60x in the next few years if the stars align. They're going down the right path. > $LITE / UC Berkeley executives running company. > Likely more US executive photonics related board members. > NASDAQ listing > Likely US institution private placement for funding > use that for downstream IP acquisition. > sell full pluggable transceiver/ELS for TAM expansion > every hyperscaler kinda maps to Sivers right now, just no scale yet since CPO hasnt ramped up. They just capture more revenue expansion along the way like $LITE did starting from the laser source.






📣 Reminder: $SIVE #EarningsCall - next week! Join us as we share Q1 '26 results, & provide insights into our continued momentum across the #Phtonics & #SATCOM markets. 🗓️ Date: May 29, 2026 🕒 Time: 10:00 AM CEST 🔗 Access the webcast: …ers-semiconductors.events.inderes.com/q1-report-2026…




This is my current portfolio As I said, I wouldn't sell any positions And I’ve kept my word, the money for the new position in $PENG does not come from my existing investments At the moment, I don’t see better opportunities in the market than what is already in my portfolio At least not at these prices I have on my radar things like $KOPN $DGXX $SOI etc


Bought $SIVE today . @aleabitoreddit take us to the promised land










