Ofek Meir

285 posts

Ofek Meir

Ofek Meir

@meirofek33

Katılım Temmuz 2025
77 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
5 months ago. I gave a PT of $150 with $AXTI. Over 10x that current values from a $500M MC. It’s now a $9.2B MC and $140. $10 away. New $SIVE longs are starting to realize what’s it’s like to be in AXT. And that I’m pretty good at guessing intrinsic valuations of companies.
Serenity tweet mediaSerenity tweet media
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: 1. $AXTI ($700M) 2. $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates. Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers. $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra. Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters. After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics. And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of: - Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc) - Optical transceivers (5g, data) - LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military) -Optical Modules (interconnect clusters) - Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use InP CW laser arrays.) Since these companies make up majority of the market supply: -AXTI (est. ~30–35%) -Sumitomo (est.~30%) - JX Nippon (est. 10-15%) That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market") Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile. If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.

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Gublo
Gublo@Gubloinvestor·
$SIVE closed at 73 SEK, Translate at $7.80 $SIVEF is still $0.40 cents undervalued..
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Athu Invests
Athu Invests@athuinvests·
1mo ago, $SIVE was at 30SEK. Today it hit 60SEK. 2X in 1 month! 🤩 3 entries around 40SEK. Kept telling everyone about it. Hope u don't miss ride to 100SEK by EOY2026. Save this if you need to. 🗳️
Athu Invests tweet media
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Naftali Bennett נפתלי בנט
אני בדרכי עכשיו למשכן הכנסת, כדי לבלום את הממשלה היוצאת מלחוקק ברגעיה האחרונים את חוק ההשתמטות המתועב. זאת על רקע ניסיונותיו הנואשים של נתניהו ללחוץ על חברי הקואליציה לבגוד בחיילי צה"ל ובצו מצפונם. לא ניתן להם להפקיר את חיילי צה"ל. אנחנו נשמור על החיילים. ברית המשרתים תביס את ברית המשתמטים.
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Ofek Meir
Ofek Meir@meirofek33·
@Matrix_B0SS 2027 will u take a profit? 50$ is the peak for this stock in long terms?
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Ofek Meir
Ofek Meir@meirofek33·
@yaronavraham @Riklin10 היי ירון..רשמת וברמה ולפני שמת פסיק. מזכיר לפני ו..לא שמים פסיק.
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Yaron Avraham ירון אברהם
אהלן שמעון ריקלין. מה שפרסמת אתמול - שעליו לא אחזור כי אני לא מופקר, ילדותי וחסר אחריות כמוך - הוא מסירת מידע לאויב. אני מבין שאתה מתקשה לעכל את זה ובמקום זה עולה להתקפה. עדיף שתגיד "טעיתי" ונתקדם, אבל אתה הרי לא מסוגל. על כל פנים, ברמה הלשונית סימני הפיסוק שלך מביכים אותי, וברמה המהותית אני אתכבד להזכיר לך שוב איך אמרת לי שבגלל שאני מזרחי אני צריך "לייצג" את המקום שממנו באתי. ובמילים אחרות: אתה לא רק מופקר, אתה גם גזען. תתבייש.
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Yaron Avraham ירון אברהם
תיראו מופתעים: שמעון ריקלין ביהירותו וילדותיותו גורם נזק אמיתי לביטחון המדינה ומוסר בשידור חי בערוץ 14 מידע מודיעיני לאויבינו. אלוהים שישמור אותנו
Yaron Avraham ירון אברהם tweet media
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Ofek Meir
Ofek Meir@meirofek33·
@Matrix_B0SS @aleabitoreddit Okay, assuming those are the numbers. Would you sell your position in April, or do you think the stock could continue growing after that? And to what level?
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Barak Seri ברק סרי
נתניהו מקווה מאוד שמתקפה אמריקאית נוספת נגד איראן, תהיה שונה לחלוטין. חזקה ואגרסיבית הרבה יותר. יותקפו מתקני אנרגיה ואתרים אסטרטגיים שיכאיבו לציבור האיראני ויגרמו למשטר האיראני לרדת סוף סוף על הברכיים. ואם זה יקרה, מקווה נתניהו, גם מצבו הפוליטי ישתנה מקצה לקצה לקראת בחירות ב-27 באוקטובר. לכן הוא מוכן להתבזות בניסיון נוסף להעביר את חוק ההשתמטות, לכן ניסה היום לשכנע ח״כים מהליכוד לתמוך בחוק שהם כל כך מתעבים. הוא צריך עוד זמן ומתפלל למתקפה אמריקאית
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Sancet
Sancet@Million_Sancet·
As always, late night thoughts Well, $SIVE's results are on May 29th, as we already discussed We are suffering, and big time, from the widespread drops On that front, $SIVE is barely involved in this minor correction What do I expect? Well, another red day tomorrow? If the escalation continues, yes But I don't really think a restart of the war (bombs, army) is feasible, nor would it be a good decision if Trump makes it So I expect a recovery tomorrow, maybe not as intense as many expect or as we would like, but there will be one IMO Until the 29th at least, I expect $SIVE to keep going up That day, following the pattern of all the others in the sector, it will probably drop I would understand if someone wanted to sell and re enter lower down; it's legitimate Especially because the Swedish media will almost certainly take advantage of the financial data to throw more crap at $SIVE Be absolutely sure that will happen, even if expectations are massive
Sivers-Semiconductors@SiversSemicond

📣 Reminder: $SIVE #EarningsCall - next week! Join us as we share Q1 '26 results, & provide insights into our continued momentum across the #Phtonics & #SATCOM markets. 🗓️ Date: May 29, 2026 🕒 Time: 10:00 AM CEST 🔗 Access the webcast: …ers-semiconductors.events.inderes.com/q1-report-2026…

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Crazy Investing
Crazy Investing@Craaazy1231·
$SIVE / $SIVEF Sive down 7% after another FUD article from a Swedish media page. Watch how the dip is getting bought today.
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Athu Invests
Athu Invests@athuinvests·
$SIVE is hands down the best opportunity in the photonics ecosystem today. Price targets: - $10: EOY’26 - $30-$40: EOY’27
Athu Invests tweet media
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QC Capital
QC Capital@QC_Capitals·
You won £10,000 today, which stock are you putting it all into?
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Ofek Meir
Ofek Meir@meirofek33·
@aleabitoreddit You also share some responsibility in this matter. Sometimes you write things that create intense FOMO for people. you say said sive is “the next Lite" and then people start thinking it could reach $1,000.That’s how some people end up investing everything based on what you say.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
Serenity tweet media
Sancet@Million_Sancet

This is my current portfolio As I said, I wouldn't sell any positions And I’ve kept my word, the money for the new position in $PENG does not come from my existing investments At the moment, I don’t see better opportunities in the market than what is already in my portfolio At least not at these prices I have on my radar things like $KOPN $DGXX $SOI etc

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TW
TW@tw_crypto_·
@meirofek33 Don’t think about price. Market cap is what matters
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Ofek Meir
Ofek Meir@meirofek33·
@tw_crypto_ And at the final?means top price 2028/2029? Something strange, serenity said sive is the next lite, so i wonder if he thinks it will be priced as lite finally -- 1000$???
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