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While most Republicans are celebrating, I want to take a moment to offer a more somber perspective. The nation faces unprecedented challenges ahead. Trump was chosen because a majority of Americans want him, not Harris, to confront these challenges.
Geopolitics:
Russia/Ukraine:
We’re likely to see an end to the war during Trump’s term. Russia will retain much of the land it occupied during the conflict, but the world will be safer, and the U.S. won’t be funding an ongoing massive overseas war.
China:
China is unlikely to attack Taiwan while Trump is President. However, trade tensions and competition over technology will intensify. Tariffs and political scapegoating from both sides will harm both the U.S. and China. Our nations are co-dependent now—escalating adversarial relations hurts both sides. With China’s economy weakening, the best outcome is a reset in U.S.-China relations.
Iran:
The Ayatollah faces his decline. Trump will allow Israel to take the fight to Hamas and Hezbollah, as he did with ISIS. There’s a real risk of escalation between now and January 20th, as Tehran’s leadership knows this window of weakness is closing.
Economy:
Inflation:
Inflation has decreased, but core inflation remains stubbornly high. The Fed has started to bring down rates, yet long-term treasury indicators suggest higher rates may still be necessary. If rates are cut too quickly, inflation could reignite; if they stay high too long, a recession could follow. The Fed must remain independent, but Trump will face pressure to pass major spending bills to stimulate the economy. Balancing this will be tough—avoiding a recession will be a miracle.
Housing:
The average home price in America is $420,000, while the median household income is $80,000. This means that most potential homeowners are already at or near the 1/3 threshold of pre-tax income devoted to mortgage payments. If housing prices or wages rise, it risks tipping the economy into a recession. If they fall, it could trigger a similar outcome.
National Debt:
Neither Trump nor Harris has proposed measures to address the national debt, which continues to balloon. We now spend more on debt service than on national defense. Some argue this is a serious risk. China is taking a more conservative approach, and despite their own economic struggles, they might be in a better fiscal position. How much higher can our debt-to-GDP ratio go? We're in uncharted territory.
Immigration:
Trump has promised to secure the borders and deport those in the U.S. illegally. Historically, America has never deported large numbers of immigrants en masse. The consequences of this policy could lead to civil unrest, which is a real concern.
With so many high-stakes issues on the table, Trump is likely to face one of the most difficult presidencies in American history. He is strong and resolute, but he is also human. I pray that America emerges from these next four years stronger than we are today.
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