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Nebius is going to be a Trillion-dollar company!
Twelve months ago, Nebius was trading near $18 per share with roughly $55 million in quarterly revenue.
Today the stock trades above $225, quarterly revenue just came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year and the company has a contracted revenue backlog that would make most Fortune 500 companies envious.
But the current market cap, sitting around $56 billion, prices in almost none of what is actually coming.
The first reason Nebius reaches a trillion is the Meta deal alone.
In March, Nebius signed a five year agreement with Meta worth up to $27 billion, one of the largest infrastructure contracts Meta has ever signed with any company under which Nebius will provide $12 billion in dedicated AI capacity across multiple locations, with Meta also having committed to purchase up to an additional $15 billion in third-party capacity over the same period.
That contract barely starts until 2027, which means the revenue impact is not yet reflected in any trailing metric.
The second reason is Microsoft, which is currently receiving its first deployment phases from Nebius and is expected to contribute at full annual run rate starting in 2027.
Between Meta and Microsoft alone, Nebius has signed agreements worth more than $46 billion in total contracted value before a single additional customer is counted.
The third reason is the ARR trajectory, which is the fastest revenue ramp of any infrastructure company in the public markets.
Nebius ended 2025 at $1.25 billion in ARR and is guiding to $7–9 billion ARR by year-end 2026.
Wall Street analysts project revenue growing 523% in 2026 and another 206% in 2027.
One of the company's own institutional shareholders has already suggested the year-end ARR could come in more than twice the guided range if the Meta and Microsoft ramps hit their timelines.
The fourth reason is Nvidia's direct involvement.
Nvidia made a $2 billion strategic equity investment in Nebius and has given Nebius early access to the Vera Rubin platform, its next generation GPU architecture as part of the delivery commitments to Meta.
The fifth reason is the capacity buildout, which is being funded by the revenue itself.
Nebius invested $2.5 billion in capex in Q1 alone, CEO Arkady Volozh has guided for $16–20 billion in total investment for 2026, and contracted capacity is now on track to exceed 4 GW by year end with new owned sites in Pennsylvania at 1.2 GW and Finland at 310 MW now under development.
The more capacity they build, the more they can sell and demand continues to outpace supply at every stage of the buildout.
When you run the math on a business with $7–9 billion in ARR exiting 2026, a $27 billion Meta contract that begins in earnest in 2027, a Microsoft relationship at full run rate, 206% analyst projected growth in 2027, and a structural relationship with Nvidia that gives it hardware access no competitor can match, a trillion-dollar valuation within three to four years is not a moonshot.
It is the base case if the compounding holds, and every data point so far suggests it is.
Milk Road Pro called this one early.
Our analysts added Nebius to the portfolio when it was still flying under the radar, and we are sitting on a massive gain on that position right now.
If you want to see what else we are building conviction on before the rest of the market catches up, come join us at Milk Road Pro at the link in bio/below!
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