FDD

The region is back to full-on war. On today's FDD Morning Brief, @JSchanzer is joined by @miadmaleki to assess the regime's political, military, and economic standing as the fighting resumes. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Europe is stepping up to fortify NATO 3.0 — and we must do the same @Brad_L_Bowman in @nypost: bit.ly/3RvITdd

“Operation Epic Passage — a combined naval and air mission of self-defense that offers escort to tankers and restores freedom of navigation, all while making clear to Tehran the devastating consequences of breaking the cease-fire.” Game on. nypost.com/2026/05/01/opi…

“This book is a gift to concerned citizens, strategists, and lawmakers.” — Matt Pottinger, former deputy national security advisor I am grateful to Matt for his endorsement of our new book. @ElaineDezenski @MarkCMontgomery @FDD_CMPP @FDD_CEFP @FDD_CCTI

If your “solution” to the S-400 crisis is simply changing the shipping address, you’re solving 🇹🇷 political headache—not 🇺🇸security dilemma. Congress should reject any backdoor attempt to revive the F-35 deal through a Gulf transfer. My latest for @FDD w/@FDDAction colleague @Ty_D_Stapleton fdd.org/analysis/2026/…

A strategic shift is underway. Here’s the short version: with the ceasefire gone, Washington can now negotiate from a position of strength. Trump declared on Friday that negotiations will continue despite telling Iran “in no uncertain terms” that the ceasefire is over. The Treasury Department then moved to sanction a key regime financier and several exchange houses that help the regime move billions of dollars, while CENTCOM fired on 100+ Iranian military targets. Whatever remains of the MOU, the two sides are now negotiating amid active hostilities — and that gives Washington greater leverage to raise the military and economic costs of Iranian aggression.

U.S. defense needs in Latin America have long been overlooked. The @SASCGOP NDAA under @SenatorWicker includes several important provisions on the region, including an Americas Defense Initiative and reporting on the natsec threat from Cuba. More in my new @RCDefense oped.

ICYMI: Tehran’s terror threats against Trump persist against a backdrop of instability in the Middle East and Strait of Hormuz. How serious are these threats and what do they mean for the road ahead? I joined @FWhitfield on @CNN Sat afternoon before the escalation to unpack.

Pleasure to join @KasiaMadera and @BBCParham on @BBCWorld to unpack the escalating US - Iran conflict and the impact it is having on decision-making in both capitals, especially as Washington responds forcefully to Iran’s dual-track escalation and engagement approach.

China specialist Bill Hayton publicly asked whether a Singapore-based geopolitical advisory firm approaching Western security analysts was a Chinese intelligence front. This led to @FDD_CCTI’s discovery of a wider network of suspicious consulting websites. Read here: fdd.org/analysis/2026/…

The alliance among Tehran, Moscow, Beijing is very solid. @CliffordDMay is joined by @HudsonInstitute's @zriboua on Foreign Podicy to discuss Moscow and Beijing and the extent to which they are supporting Iran in the Middle East and Africa. 📹 Full episode: bit.ly/4fbSbD4

🚨NEW: Trump Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: July | International Organizations is trending positive 🔗More from FDD’s Alex Weinberg and @EKrivine: #trending_positive-international-organizations" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">fdd.org/policy-tracker…

The question now is whether Washington can resist the next round of Turkish pressure. Erdogan has spent years demanding the privileges of alliance while undermining the obligations that make alliance possible. The F-35 should not reward that behavior—@SinanCiddi: fdd.org/analysis/2026/…

Europe is stepping up to fortify NATO 3.0 — and we must do the same Here's my latest on NATO: fdd.org/analysis/2026/…

It’s said we are defined by our enemies. Senator Graham’s enemies were the enemies of America and freedom. He was a gentleman, patriot, colleague, mentor and friend. His spirit now echoes in the Capitol calling: Who will lift the flag and carry on? May his memory be a blessing.

Pleasure to join @BrookeShaferTV on @NewsNation this AM to breakdown where things stand between the US and Iran as the MoU flails, talks over the Strait continue, and threats against the life of President Trump persist.

🚨🚨🚨So, Iran has chosen to respond to Trump’s ultimatum about the Strait of Hormuz not with a disavowal, but with missile strikes against commercial vessels crossing an international waterway. This is more proof that the war of choice we are in is a product of Tehran’s machinations. Not Washington’s. Iran is doing this not as a pressure tactic. But because it is holding onto a lifeline that it knows is a diminishing asset. Some might expect the regime to sit quietly and milk the MoU then rope a dope the Trump administration for another two years. But such assessments downplay the impact revolutionary ideology can have. This force continues to operate at the highest levels in Tehran no matter how much the NatSec crowd has been thinned by the US and Israel. The Islamic Republic is also choosing escalation because it fundamentally sees the US, and Trump in particular, as deterred by four “M’s” which will prevent him from pursuing regime change or turning his use of force into a political win. They are: media, markets, munitions, and midterms. These may be fickle forces, but they must be understood when explaining American engagement or Iranian escalation.

Turkey is not being denied the F-35 because of bureaucratic delay or anti-Turkish prejudice. Rather, the aircraft is being denied because it knowingly introduced a Russian intelligence-collection risk into NATO’s defense ecosystem and has refused to reverse course, writes @SinanCiddi: fdd.org/analysis/2026/…

Khamenei convinced himself that the U.S. was losing. But if you look at Iran's economy — soaring unemployment, crushing inflation and a regime running out of options. @CliffordDMay is joined by @HudsonInstitute's @zriboua on Foreign Podicy. 📹 Full episode: bit.ly/4fbSbD4

While sanctions easing is an important form of leverage in the U.S. diplomatic arsenal, as long as Minsk is aligned with and enabling Moscow, the U.S. needs to maintain its sanctions and export controls to avoid creating loopholes Russia can exploit—@SophieMcDowall_ & Kateryna Kvasha: fdd.org/analysis/2026/…