Michael Lebowitz, CFA

Buy and hold is not a process... Buy and hold is a recipe to give back half or more of what you have earned over the last 5-10 years. Have a process and understand risk. You can make back money but not time.

Leverage Turned A Winning Thesis Into A Stupid Bet open.substack.com/pub/simpleviso…

Unless something dramatically happens today, looks like the monthly gain streak for July S&P 500 will end at 11 straight years. Last time July MTD saw a loss was back in 2014....ironically then August saw a decent gain. @isabelnet_SA @michaellebowitz

Long Bonds Are Weary Of Warsh’s Inflation Resolve open.substack.com/pub/simpleviso…

@stockmom @LanceRoberts Me too!!

@LanceRoberts @michaellebowitz The market had a temper tantrum because it was used to being spoon Fed guidance. I like the no giudance approach much better!

7-30-26 Why The Market Really Sold Off After The Fed @michaellebowitz Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors Why did stocks sell off after the latest FOMC meeting? It wasn't because Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a surprisingly hawkish message—it was because he intentionally delivered almost no forward guidance at all. The official FOMC statement was remarkably short, at roughly 166 words, compared with the lengthy statements markets had grown accustomed to under Jerome Powell. That wasn't an oversight. Warsh has made it clear that the Fed is stepping away from providing detailed forecasts about future policy and wants financial markets to interpret incoming economic data on their own. For years, investors have relied on the Fed to signal where interest rates were headed months in advance. Warsh's approach marks a philosophical shift. Rather than telling markets what to expect, the Fed now expects markets to do their own analysis and price in economic developments without constant guidance from policymakers. Ironically, forward guidance hasn't always been accurate. Economic conditions change quickly, forcing the Fed to adjust course. By offering fewer promises about future decisions, Warsh is trying to make policy more flexible while reducing the market's dependence on Fed messaging. The bond market wasn't necessarily panicking, but it was forced to reassess what this new communication style means. Most of the movement occurred in the long end of the Treasury curve, while shorter-term yields remained relatively stable after already pricing in the possibility of one or two additional rate hikes. The takeaway wasn't that Warsh wants to raise rates immediately. In fact, it looks like he would prefer not to hike. However, he made it clear that if inflation requires additional tightening, he is willing to act to preserve the Fed's credibility. One of the strongest messages from the press conference was the Fed's commitment to its inflation target. Warsh dismissed speculation that the central bank might eventually tolerate permanently higher inflation around 2.5% or 3%. Instead, he emphasized that the goal remains 2% or lower, reinforcing that inflation control remains the Fed's primary objective. Warsh also acknowledged legitimate inflation risks, including higher software and hardware prices and lingering effects from the Iran conflict. However, he suggested these pressures alone are not the biggest concern. What worries him most is the possibility that inflation becomes embedded in consumer and business expectations, making it much harder to bring inflation sustainably back to target. So, the market's selloff wasn't driven by a shocking policy announcement. It was driven by uncertainty. The Fed is changing how it communicates, and investors are learning that they may no longer receive the detailed roadmap they have relied on for years. Going forward, markets will likely have to depend less on Fed guidance and more on interpreting economic data, inflation trends, and FOMC voting dynamics themselves. 📺Full episode: youtube.com/watch?v=lsx5Fw… Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: @TheRealInvestmentShow" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@TheRealInvest…

A September Rate Hike Is On The Table open.substack.com/pub/simpleviso…

"Carnage in hyperscaler bond land" is trending as CDS spreads jump for a basket of Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle. We dug into the data to see if the fear is justified. Hint: It's not realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…

"Carnage in hyperscaler bond land" is trending as CDS spreads jump for a basket of Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle. We dug into the data to see if the fear is justified. Hint: It's not realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…

Will High Oil Prices Force The Fed’s Hand open.substack.com/pub/simpleviso…

Chip Momentum Is Fading Despite Strong Earnings open.substack.com/pub/simpleviso…

The graphic below says yields are the trigger, but we think it's oil prices. Either way, yields and oil prices are tied at the hip. realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…

Small Caps Are Quietly Winning While Mega Caps Wobble open.substack.com/pub/simpleviso…

@FluentInFinance Now do average salary

The purchasing power of $100 since the Federal Reserve was created: 1913: $100.00 1923: $57.89 1933: $76.15 1943: $57.23 1953: $37.08 1963: $32.35 1973: $22.30 1983: $9.94 1993: $6.85 2003: $5.38 2013: $4.25 2026: $2.99 The U.S. dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power.

Wall Street can't agree on what SpaceX is worth: price targets range from $63 to $401 a share. Musk projects $1T in 2030 revenue; Morgan Stanley says $330B. We used Amazon's actual growth history to frame just how far apart these bets really are. realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…

Are Oil Prices Driving The Iran Conflict? open.substack.com/pub/simpleviso…

Elon Musk says SpaceX hits $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. That's a 53-fold increase in five years, more than double Amazon's best-ever growth streak, from a base thousands of times larger. We stress-tested the math against Amazon's 29-year trajectory. realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…

Just because a company is changing the world doesn't necessarily mean its stock is priced for success. Join @michaellebowitz and me as we look under the hood at Space-X on #TheRealInvestmentShow, streaming live starting at 6am CDT on YouTube, Meta, LinkedIn, & X. (Links are in the comments)

Prediction Markets: A New Sentiment Gauge For Traders open.substack.com/pub/simpleviso…

"Raising rates in response to an external energy shock is akin to raising taxes to reduce rainfall." Bingo!!

Elon Musk says SpaceX hits $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. That's a 53-fold increase in five years, more than double Amazon's best-ever growth streak, from a base thousands of times larger. We stress-tested the math against Amazon's 29-year trajectory. realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…

Wall Street can't agree on what SpaceX is worth: price targets range from $63 to $401 a share. Musk projects $1T in 2030 revenue; Morgan Stanley says $330B. We used Amazon's actual growth history to frame just how far apart these bets really are. realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…