Michele Peroni

Listino CUN e prezzi del grano duro del 18/05/2026. Si registrano ribassi generali in tutta la penisola. Prezzo medio del grano duro origine Sud "Fino" €269-274/t. Ultimo FOB CWAD #1 St. Lawrence registrato da DG Agri ad €251.

Soft wheat!

May EU JRC Mars is out!

France snapshot …

Slight positive revision of durum national average yields for Italy, Spain down, France down.

@Strawhats7 Quality premiums will make the difference then?

Outside of HRW #wheat we don't have many production issues to deal with globally, Black Sea and EU look good, we have very impressive situation in North Africa/Middle east growing regions and Canada/US spring areas are now getting moisture. Wheat looks particularly bearish to me.

@nicodaulerio Hay que seguir de cerca el fenómeno de El Niño. Las condiciones del suelo argentino son bastante buenas en este momento

Mercado de trigo: ¿qué está pasando? 🌾🍞🇦🇷🇺🇸 En A Todo Trigo se discutió mucho si el trigo “debería” valer más y si el FOB argentino tenía lógica. El último WASDE del USDA recortó el saldo exportable de los principales exportadores, especialmente USA, Argentina y Australia. Además, bajó la relación stock/consumo, sobre todo en Estados Unidos. Eso explica por qué Kansas —referencia mundial del trigo duro— se mantiene firme: el mercado empieza a mostrar preocupación por el stock estadounidense. Mientras tanto, el FOB argentino hoy vale apenas -1 U$S/tn vs Kansas, cuando históricamente el diferencial promedio fue +15 U$S/tn (y +23 U$S/tn en los últimos años). El problema es que esta relación suele deteriorarse de mayo en adelante por una cuestión estacional. A esto se suma otro factor: los márgenes brutos del trigo siguen sin mostrar resultados positivos en gran parte de las principales zonas productivas del país. Si eso termina generando menor pricing y menor presión de venta, no sería raro ver mejores valores hacia adelante. Con márgenes ajustados y baja rentabilidad en gran parte de las zonas productivas, no parece un contexto que incentive una venta agresiva de trigo nuevo por parte del productor. Personalmente, no soy vendedor de la campaña nueva hasta ver valores más cercanos a 240/250 U$S o una mejora en las relaciones insumo/producto (por eso tampoco me entusiasma salir a comprar urea hoy). De la cosecha vieja, en cambio, voy liberando algo aprovechando esta firmeza.

@AlanandMary1 @bradyolson10 😂

@micheleprni @bradyolson10 Tractor seat

I think we have a massive disaster/wreck in NE MT and NW ND. Dirt is drifted like snow banks. Fert that should be 3+” in ground is on top. So dry and likely missing rain this weekend. Uncharted territory here

@kyle_e_walker My Threads is crickets too and can’t even see insights because I have <100 followers, which makes it even worse. Algo seems unable to pinpoint my niche too

I started cross-posting on Threads as an experiment. Mostly crickets for AI / mapping content. But occasionally they engage - and the reactions tend to be quite different from here For example on this post my X / LinkedIn audiences understood the point I was making, but Threads just didn't get it

@EduardoVanin4 How much was the diverted ARG -> ITA soybean meal? I think last US flash sale was 155000MT we’ve been importing at a crazy pace

Tradings in Argentina reportedly had 3 smeal vessels to EU diverted recently, Italy and Poland. Arg tdd LH May at +4 and offers LH June USG at +38. The spread remains wide. SBO USG firmed this week and Arg tdd June at -2050. The spread is close to $600/t Fob-Fob. Crush margins in Arg and Brz remains healthy and board crush in China for JAS window (Brz beans) is below full cost. If margins in China don't improve for OND, the 25 Mi t purchase program will be spread out over Brz NC - bad for beans flat price.

$WEAT Managed Money contracts held positions are at historical lows in CBOT contracts. Last time we were here: 2021–22. Different setup, certainly no immediate supply shock, but the high input costs are quietly building medium-long-term pressure. While we might be cherrypicking, look what it usually coincides with ... What is familiar? Every time we've seen this positioning, higher periods of volatility followed. Different trigger, same pattern?

@bradyolson10 Big problem

$ZW/ $WEAT What I love about agricultural finance is that it's rooted in biology. Topsoil is only 0–15 cm deep, but takes 500 years to form 1 inch. It holds organic matter, nutrients, and life itself. Yesterday in North Dakota, 5"+ of it blew away in a single blizzard. North Dakota grows 70% of US durum and when the topsoil moves, so does the basis. We always must remember that the best assets are living ones. And if we don't take enough care, we're losing them.

@agronomistag We don't talk enough about the importance of SOM

6 years of cover crops, irrigated and interseeded to give it more time, and still no soil effects. Why? Low biomass. Interseeding increased biomass from 330 to 508 lb/ac. ➡️This level of CC biomass will help with erosion, but not much else. acsess.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…

@Nelson_NPlains @AgDayTV @ClintonReports @ReutersAg @snodgrss This is what happens when OM in your soil is low

Highway 83 North of Minot, ND yesterday May , 14th. Top soil accumulated like snow during a blizzard estimating 5”+ while parked along the highway. 🙁 @AgDayTV @ClintonReports @ReutersAg @snodgrss

Tracing the 104-week Extra-EU Durum flow. Which origins are dominating the EU supply chain? Full origin-by-origin breakdown below.

@GrainsGorilla @NicoAIQ I have been wondering the same thing as the algo kept suggesting his tweets. Happy to be proven wrong, but numbers first, please.

@NicoAIQ You got your tweets you were waiting for. 40mmt of corn and beans China gonna buy according to you. The Great Grain Robbery. Waiting for your scientific data to spit out a reaction. Data data data!!! Market sure doesn’t care

@WATCHER_GRAINS And most importantly there are quality differences between the two contracts

🌾Many people struggle to understand the divergence between CBOT SRW wheat🇺🇸 and European wheat🇪🇺. Here is my explanation of why Euronext is up around 5%, while CBOT is up nearly +15% since the september 2025. 1⃣Currency effect (EUR/USD) The EUR/USD has appreciated by more than 15% since the beginning of 2025. This move significantly improves the competitiveness of CBOT wheat relative to European wheat, putting additional pressure on Euronext prices in comparison. 2⃣Crop condition divergence The second key factor is the sharp difference in crop conditions between the two regions. 🇺🇸In the US, conditions are extremely poor this year, with only around 28% of the crop rated Good to Excellent. USDA estimates point to production at its lowest level in decades, down roughly 27% year-on-year. 🇪🇺In Europe, conditions are not perfect, but they are clearly more stable. Production is only expected to decline by around 6%, which is far less severe than in the US. Conclusion When combining these two factors, we can clearly explain the current divergence between CBOT and Euronext. However, this ratio appears extreme and, in my view, is not sustainable over time.

@david_katunaric Textbook answer, the exec came prepared

From an 🇸🇬ex-holding. Answers like this always get me excited.