@pakpakchicken What‘s your time frame between the 20 billion coming in and the announcement of a stock buyback?
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Coco
39 posts
Premarket, everything nuking.
Good to know I'm holding below NAV with no leverage.
Time on my side.
Few updates on $SATS
🔸Ticker changing to $echo on 24th.
🔸Feels like rebranding into the first profitable quarter moving forward. Highest expense was debt payment.
🔸Most tax efficient way to deploy incoming profits will be buybacks to NAV.
🔸 I think $20 billion should come in this week.
🔸Lots of inaccurate NAV calculation out-there. All assuming management a monkey and don't know how to be more tax efficient.
🔸 Entire space sector went down, $sats down the least. Good to see that. Recovery will be glorious
🔸Most people forget CEO + Founder owns 50.5% of the stock. Find for me another CEO that have so much skin in the game.
The space narrative will be here to stay. Unlimited TAM. Good example. Project starfall. Demo in 2 days.
If you are uncomfortable, means you are over position sized or your conviction not there.
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@pakpakchicken How does the $183M interest payment cure fit into this? Paying it out of pocket instead of waiting for the AT&T cash suggests management knows the deal is a lock, but the timeline might slide slightly past June 30. Thoughts?
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My theory of $sats price suppression and high short interest + how it will all end.
Convertible arbitrage is probably a major driver of SATS’s elevated short interest
$sats took on a lot of debt. Buyers of the converts sitting on a good 3X, want to lock in gains.
If you loan $sats $1000. You are up 3X. You are now given the option to lock in gains in the latest 10Q
WHAT DO YOU DO?
Short the ownership equal to the value of your own shares to lock in the gains aka convertible arbitrage.
Dateline: June 30
Math Maxing (from latest 10-Q and filings)
🔸Principal amount outstanding: ≈ $1.9426 billion ( Market Value now $6 Billion )
🔸Conversion rate: 29.73507 shares per $1,000 principal
🔸Potential shares if fully converted: ≈ 57.76 million shares
🔸Shares outstanding (as of March 31, 2026): ≈ 289.81 million
🔸Current short interest (as of May 29, 2026): 41.07 million shares
Short % of float: ≈ 30-32%
What does this all mean?
By June 30, Heavy conversion (many arbs convert)
30–50+ million shares bought to cover
Again, this is the kind of DD I’m doing. It makes hodling a hell lot easier.
There will be a time to cut. I’ll know when it comes.
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@pakpakchicken What is your time horizon for all this to happen? Could be months until the AT&T money rolls in. Market conditions could have changed until then
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imagine you own 50% of a publicly listed company.
32% of your float is shorted
When $22B deal is closed, what will you do with the cash?
1. You pay off the debt
2. Remaining cash? The obvious thing to do is do buyback
$SATS at $34 Billion Mcap + Excess cash of $8 Billion after paying down debt.
AHHHHHHHHHH I GONNA CUM
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@pakpakchicken @rioferdy838 Does this short term drop concern you about your thesis?
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@rioferdy838 arb traders will come in and close the gap. Again, free money. FREE money.
after my ALL in post yesterday, you can see markets beginning to price this accordingly.
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Why I went all in $SATS
Here’s the maths:
SpaceX IPO at $135
SpaceX S1 disclosed Echostar owns 261.8 million shares
🔸$135 X 261.8 million shares = $35 Billion
While echostar was worth less than $35 Billion yesterday
Question:
Do you really think that you can put a $135 limit order on ipo day to get the shares?
NO!! Hyperliquid premarket AT $180 already 😂
Your best chance is do a market order buy on $sats before spacex ipo if you are bullish on spaceX
Here is where it gets crazier:
FCC APPROVED deal $22.65 Billion Cash for selling low to mid-band spectrum to AT&T
🔸So that’s worth ZERO? or NOBODY FKING CARED LMAO
My valuation ex- spaceX:
Net cash after debt paydown
$8.5 billion
Remaining unsold spectrum
$10 billion
Core operating business
$10 billion
Total Ex-SpaceX $28.5 billion
🔸Value per share EX- SpaceX ~ $86 ( Conservative )
Now let’s go from crazier to NUTS:
Short interest is 31% !!!! WTF LMAO
But the issue is founder owns 50.5% stake and 86.8% voting rights.
So the short interest on the remaining whatever available float? What’s that? 60++++%???
Seldom market hands you free money. When it does, go all in.
____
P.S. I seldom write long thesis anymore. Why? The hardworking ones will be rewarded with their own DD. You make your own conviction rather than relying on me for customer support.
And what do you want more when I put my own $$ on the line? Who does this transparently? Action speak more than words.
Once in a while, I'll write. But don't count on me mansplaining often. It's better for you to build your own conviction.
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@MrTinvests Thanks for the trade man, bought at $2.3 and sold at $3.2
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@pakpakchicken @hinatagoon Will you be shorting Memory stocks in your challange portfolio?
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@hinatagoon I will be shorting it if price is right. Every cycle the same. Memory is a commodity
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Everyone finding the next “Bottleneck”
This is one of the stupidest narrative ever.
Businesses built on bottlenecks have only one option: if it breaks. GG.
A bottleneck is any single point of failure.
This bottleneck narrative shit is funded by AI capex buildout. Once gone, watch it tumble.
Bottleneck businesses are fragile by design.
Resilient businesses are antifragile by design, they get stronger when shit comes.
Before you buy the next bottleneck, think about who is your exit liquidity or are you the exit liquidity.
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@MrTinvests I found your account yesterday and followed your trade right away, best choice ever
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GUYS. have sold 1/3 $OPTX
26% profit. new highs for challenge acc.
Mr. T@MrTinvests
I WILL BUY ONE MORE STOCK. $OPTX average fill, 8.11 POTENTIAL 30%+ 👀 Adding a new position right now. 3 catalysts. 1 stock. Sub $400M cap. Multi-theme small cap. Defense. Space. Biomedical optics. All in one ticker. The kind of name that makes a year in a single quarter. Together we are buying LOW, selling HIGH
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Took profit for $fly 5 mins ago for 2x
Left initial capital to ride. Essentially this position is free now
This is how challenge portfolio look like now
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@sharplink $eth is inevitable. $sbet sucks. Let the fking stock breath.
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@pakpakchicken What are your expectations for the crypto market in Q4 2025?
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3 weeks ago, I predicted what would happen at Jackson Hole. Yet, most people chose to follow commentators with little to no track record.
Before I share what’s next
Take a moment to recall the sentiment, "pro macro" accounts, and price action before the Jackson Hole speech.
Tho I didn't post anything, you saw my public portfolio start to derisk from $4,700 ETH and entering at the height of negative sentiment. I provided multiple entry points including a liquid low mcap before this pump.
So, what’s next? Rate cuts are bearish.
Chicken Genius@pakpakchicken
Powell will set stage for Sept. cut at Jackson Hole 3 weeks from now. So obvious, he doesn't have a choice. Why? ‣ Since 1993, this is the 1st time, 2 fed governors dissenting. It's fking embarrassing for the Powell. ‣ Worst jobs report revision. Largest downward revision since the onset of COVID. Powell credibility on the line ‣ 1 Fed Governor resigned. Will be replaced by Trump. Next meeting, 100% chance 3 will dessent if Powell doesn't play ball. Any pullback to be very short lived. Risk will move down the curve. Final stage is the fastest and hardest stage. Rotation is key. Don't marry your bags.
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facts: $sbet is a consistent underperformer vs $eth and $bmnr
I chose to recommend the wrong horse, that's on me. Or maybe some of you jinx followed me into this trade. Either that's still on me.
Have not taken any action. Still riding both. If I cut, I'll let you know
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@pakpakchicken Appreciate the insight a lot, it‘s really helpful in this sea of scammers and liars
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looking at the comments, generally I'm shilling sbet too much, I'm paid, didn't talk enough about bmnr tho I posted I bought.
Sure last post.
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Understand this about $eth
‣ No government selling pressure
‣ No old whales dumping
‣ No Mt. Gox sell-off
‣ Unlike BTC, ETH faces zero overhang issues
Beyond the many reasons I've previously outlined, consider this: the same capital flowing into ETH will drive its price higher due to its smaller market cap and 50% of its supply locked in smart contracts.
Eth treasury companies are going to raise billions and billions more. It's clear capital is flowing there. Whatever your targets are, raise it.
The ticker is $sbet
‣ Not gonna get dumped on by PIPE investors
‣ Latest round raised $200M at MARKET PRICE. No shady pipe / OTC
‣ Next raise probably 2X or 3X the amount. The power of Blackrock's connection.
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$DKING Weekly has officially started to go vertical against $ETH.
When we have broken longterm downtrends against $ETH in the past, we've gone on 4-10x runs. Provided a few sloppy trend lines as examples.
See you at $1+ 🚀
Small Cap Scientist 👨🔬🧪🥼@SmallCapScience
$DKING Weekly Chart looks ready to go vertical against $ETH. It’s up 15%+ today against its $ETH and USD pairings. Higher…
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@pakpakchicken Are you still expecting jeet august? Or are we heading straight into alt season?
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Cycle traders: Q4 2025 Sell
Macro traders: Q3 2026 Sell
Me: 40% cycle, 30% Macro, 30% ride it
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i started a $ZORA position
thesis:
> the new base app is all about posting content and getting paid for it, all of that is powered by the Zora platform
therefore you could literally say the coin of the Base app is Zora, all of the shilling that Jesse and the team have been doing is literally shilling Zora
> The base app is still in beta yet all Zora metrics have spiked up recently and are trending upwards
while I don't agree with the idea of coining everything and downgrading the idea of a coin to just a dumb post or picture, it seems like the Base team aren't giving up on pushing that narrative, so buying $zora is betting that their idea will succeed
even if it doesn't, zora did raise $60M from CB ventures and paradigm and is sitting at ~$40M marketcap, is listed on cb, bybit (and multiple lower tier CEXs) and the chart is finally starting to look good again
i have gotten burnt on this coin before though, so will cut if i see any weakness (in the chart or in zora metrics)
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It is incredible how fast the eth treasury narrative has developed
just 8 days later and there are already two publicly traded companies ( $SBET and $BMNR ) with over $1B in $ETH.
it's a race between these two, and like three or four other companies to acquire ETH
meanwhile ETH has broken out, and more importantly ETHBTC has
I think this violent run-up we had on ETH will continue and even accelerate, and ETH >5K is in the works (assuming nothing unexpected happens like Trump doing something stupid)
I've personally started taking profit on the ETH treasury companies after being up over 3X on $SBET alone, and rotated that money into buying more $ETH
I've also bought some spot $EIGEN as I think it's the most appropriate alt for the treasury narrative due to its restaking protocol as the ETH treasury companies are all about receiving an income from staking ETH
Joe Lubin is also a big fan of $EIGEN and shouted them out from all the way back in 2023. He also indicated that SBET has plans to make use of this protocol multiple times on X
mcSleuth@0xSleuth_
my bullcase on $ETH and eth treasury companies $SBET and $BTBT: bitcoin has solidified itself as the most favorable cryptocurrency and the face of this industry, due to obvious reasons. the most prominent beta for a while was $ETH but due to it's lacking performance, people have considered coins such as $SOL or even $XRP as better betas to bitcoin i believe the ETH treasury companies, as well as the stablecoin narrative will solidify ETHs position as the main beta to BTC. SOL treasury companies have no traction and 0 mainstream coverage, and there arent any other prominent altcoins that have this same narrative ETH is also the main coin to bet to get exposure to the stablecoin industry, one of the few actual usecases that have come out of crypto my two main bets on the ETH treasury narrative are $SBET and $BTBT. $SBET has the most favorable NAV ratio compared to the other treasury companies, has the largest ethereum treasury and has the ethereum cofounder as CEO $BTBT is like an underdog play, the CEO is not as known as the CEO of $SBET or $BMNR for example but it's an actual business not just an eth treasury holding company which I think gives it a good edge compared to the others this is all well and good, but we need to see the price following the narrative. $ETH reclaiming 3k is what I think will solidify this narrative going to be focusing alot of my attention on the eth treasury companies as I think they have better R:R than most altcoins ATM disclaimer: i am primarily a crypto trader, and not equity trader so my thoughts on equities could definitely be very wrong.
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