Micro Burry

My breakdown of how I benefit from ASX broker transactional data for trading struck a chord on HotCopper a few months ago. Thought the Twitter/X community would appreciate these 12 practical strategies below 1/ 👇

@AvidCommentator Sometimes I can’t believe the events we’re witnessing. It feels like a ridiculous dream.

"Wen deal?" *yes this is real

Just spent an hour reading posts on the US and Iran deal . Let me summarise what the deal looks like -

Auction results - Sold To Listed - Sydney 27.5% (28.0% last weekend) - Melbourne 39.4% (38.2%) Sydney plummets to a new all time low since my records began in 2018 (ex-public holidays and Xmas season) A ridiculous 48.4% of results unreported, which might be an all time high outside of holiday impacted periods. This could still theoretically boost the result come SQM's release on Tuesday. SQM's data this week confirmed the weakness seen in my data last weekend, with the weakest result since the absolute height of Covid (ex-public holidays and Xmas). Melbourne on the other hand mounting something of a fight back, up 3 percentage points from its recent lows, but still 10 percentage points down from where it was at the end of February. This may be partially due to Melbourne being theoretically less exposed to negatively geared investor demand compared with Sydney, possessing the highest rental yields of the mainland state capitals. Overall both markets remain profoundly weak and highly vulnerable to a further reduction in demand stemming from the changes to the federal budget. #AvidAuctions

Yeah, that's the pain we all feel. Personally I don't feel the direct impact because I rarely hold anything longer than a year on my active trading account – my whole philosophy is centred around getting into the growth phase at the right time. But all these changes are slowly making ASX a dead place, especially in the speculative micro cap space :(

@micro_burry The ASX makes me want to turn super to SMSF so I can fully exit the market and go elsewhere. The government just continues to thrash the economy and the ASX is symbolic of that.

Significantly reduced long exposure over the past few weeks – the market is in rough shape so I've repositioned. Sold most of my ASX 300 holdings. What's left: energy stocks – $WDS, $STO and a few others – plus a handful of short positions, small in size. Now shifting focus to small and micro caps – building exposure gradually and keeping it small for now. Will share a few here, mostly for educational purposes – just to track how things evolve. First one: $LSA, copper and gold play. Broker data over the past few months shows top buyers are clients of Argonaut and Canaccord. One of my favourite combinations – when both are leading the buying, I'm very bullish. #ASX #SmartMoney #Trading #copper #gold $LSA $LSA.AX

Accumulation/distribution chart for retail – starting to look like a pivot. The setup I really like: retail switching from buying to selling, telling me that a broader group of professional investors are starting to look at this stock. Someone looks at the price and thinks it's too high to buy now. I look at the retail pivot and think – that's probably the right time.

Accumulation by the investment bank group. There was already some accumulation before, but not at the pace I personally look for. After the announcement though, the scale relative to what came before gives a good hint. $AVR $AVR.AX

$AVR $AVR.AX – Was planning to post more micro caps today but this one is closer to $1B – still worth posting. Broker data for the past 2 weeks: a few instos accumulating. The rally was triggered after the May 5 news – honestly don't fully understand the news, but the pros clearly liked it. That's why I like broker data – no need to be an expert in pharma, geology, or finance. Just need to recognise patterns and understand how statistics works. #ASX #SmartMoney #Trading $AVR $AVR.AX

$STO Accumulation by a group of invest banks over past 3 months

A month on from this post. Gold sitting at $4,520 – down from when I posted. No major macro shift yet: strait still closed, dollar still strong, more inflation fear. Still short selected goldies. Still on track. #gold

$LSA – Accumulation by Argonaut clients.

$LSA – Accumulation by Canaccord clients.

If this goes ahead, ASX will shrink and a lot of these sectors will be game over: * Microcaps early startups * Mining explorers, developers without revenue * Early stage bio-techs * High PE growth stocks with huge runway Money will rotate into * High dividend stocks with no growth * Cyclical mining producers with dividend * Index ETFs and never sell How depressing...

@jakestrading18 @MarketLensAu My companies are $WDS, $STO and $JGH as well 😜

@MarketLensAu @micro_burry is it ur company😂

$JGH Bought more 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4 Done buying. NFA

@theAZtrader @silvertarget9 @respeculator

@silvertarget9 @respeculator Follow @micro_burry he is the expert

Will pump out a few broker data requests, send me the ticker and timeframe (one per person)

No idea, honestly. I know it's partially hedged but I expect this will be a speculative play either way. A lot of the buyers don't know the company is hedged – and those of us who do know it's hedged also know that others don't, and will buy anyway as oil goes higher. So why not buy and sell into the excitement later 😀

@AlchemyofFinan1 @micro_burry I hold but just wondering how much extra can they sell at spot?

$WDS $WDS.AX – Accumulation/distribution chart for the investment bank group. Accumulation has slowed down but they're definitely not selling. Just steady, slow accumulation through the correction phase. The heavy lifting was done earlier.

$NAB $NAB.AX – Another recent short. Clear reversal in retail vs pro behaviour. Retail switched from selling to buying. Investment bank group switched from buying to selling.

@SaketKhandelw19 Can’t see anything interesting in uranium stocks at the moment based on broker data.

@micro_burry Do you have any thoughts on Uranium stocks? Maybe the bigger players.

$WTC - tracking my shorts. Retail investors are buying, while instos are selling.