Miles

@koolkrypto223 @ethena Agree. They have an impossibility of value accrual to both $ENA holders and $USDe holders. $USDe holders must be prioritized in any circumstances to protect/boost the TVL. Profit sharing/ Ecosystem values only flows to $ENA holders at a mature stage, but this risks TVL losses.

I'm not sure why this is making $ENA catch a bid. @ethena was a simple but brilliant regulatory arbitrage play at a time when DeFi lego blocks were just being built and composability was key to distribution. Retail couldn't easily access deeply liquid perps to participate in the funding rate capture trade on $BTC and $ETH, so Ethena came in, tokenized it, and nailed distribution thanks to $ENA emissions, @pendle_fi and @aave looping. A very material headwind that I'm surprised more people don't address is @Hyperliquid and @Lighter_xyz replacing GMX and dYdX. All of retail can now access very deep liquidity perps to run their own basis trades. Both of those venues enabling full portfolio margin and BTC/ETH collat will be one more nail in the coffin for @ethena. Yield on the funding rate trade has predictably compressed, so now they say that they are diversifying to other yield sources. Those yield sources are: "Basis on non-crypto assets"- massively saturated "Institutional and Prime lending" - Genesis and Celsius anyone? "liquid high quality non-tbill RWA" - go on...? Just buy $STRC at this point... @ethena is pivoting from being the best funding rate capture yield bearing stablecoin, to probably being one of the worst multi-strat delta neutral hedge funds. If they take risks others aren't willing to take (that's how you get higher returns lending money), DeFi users who won't know any better will just resume looping sUSDe and taking on dramatically increased counterparty risk. This pivot also comes at a time when access to yield maximizing AI agents, vault curators, and tradfi funds coming on chain all serve as more competition and headwinds to Ethena ever enjoying it's market dominance of 2024-2025. The $ENA trade has run it's course. Early participants and investors nailed it, and were greatly enriched by using $ENA token emissions to artificially prop up TVL while dumping $ENA on retail. Now $ENA represents "equity" in a multi-strat hedge fund that had a bad year, and is undergoing huge strategy drift to compete with the most sophisticated institutions on the planet. Way more likely for Millenium to successfully tokenize than @ethena to compete with Millenium. Oh except that fund "equity" still has no profit share mechanism and is still being used for emissions and is still being dumped price-agnostically by VC funds and early adopters/farmers. $ENA pumps are for selling imo (if you don't, they will). I hope not, but the official picture they chose to use a @3janexyz integration may end up being quite prophetic given how much their counterparty risk and attack vector surface area is about to increase.

@SerenityFund Feel like we never know whether they are solvent from their debank wallet profiles!

@miles_hui it's not clear to me now.

Weekly #stablecoin

Pure Independence collabfund.com/blog/pure-inde… via @collabfund

@prometheusmacro No. Market is way too forward in pricing future rate cuts. When the Fed actually cut last week, the return of bonds since then is negative. I think a higher discrepancy between the market expected cuts and "realized future cuts" is needed for positive expected return now.

Thought experiment. Let's say: Inflation is fine/stable Bonds have zero expected return Stocks have a positive expected return Should you own a stock + bond portfolio?

Real Estate Investment in Hong Kong: Buy-to-let? milesyc.substack.com/p/real-estate-…