Eirc Jackosn Advisor
96 posts
Promised at the SRXH fireside chat that I'd keep reporting the EMJX book in public. Day 163, and a big week for this conversation:
Since Feb 11: EMJX +27.5%. Over the exact same stretch: BTC -4.5%, IBIT -5.4%, ETHA -5.1%, BMNR -19.0%, MSTR -28.0%.
Max drawdown along the way, and these are drawdowns, not returns: EMJX -10.56%. IBIT -28%. BMNR -43%. MSTR -58%. Sharpe 1.7. On BTC's down stretches this book has, on average, gone up.
This week: -0.8%. Down weeks get posted too. That's the deal.
Why the book is positioned this way: our model flipped defensive on BTC on the morning of July 20, with BTC at $66K, and we told @EventHorizonIQ Premium subscribers that morning. We remain defensive today. Hedges on, defense first.
And here is why this structure matters. This week Jack Mallers stepped down as CEO of XXI, saying he wanted to build cash-flow-generating bitcoin businesses, not just a treasury. The stock hit an all-time low. He put his finger on the Gen1 problem: why would anyone pay a corporate premium for passive coin holding? You can buy an ETF for 25 bps. A treasury strategy has to earn its existence in every environment, up, down, and sideways. That is what we built. The regime call is the product, and the scoreboard is public, win or lose.
[Note I'm obviously long SRXH]
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Morgan Stanley initiated Hut 8 this morning: $263 target, 141% upside by their math.
Here's the part nobody will tell you: their bear case is $105, and their bear case is my base case. Their base case is my strong state, the one I run at 1-in-4 by end-2028.
Same machine, different odds. The new piece shows both sides, with the probabilities written down, including the $60 state nobody puts in a headline.
Morgan Stanley's Bear Case for HUT Is My Base Case open.substack.com/pub/eventhoriz…
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@AntoineRSX it's at the end of "The Tell"... i'm bullish long term but no position in TSLA
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Last night, mid-answer on a routine supplier question, Elon Musk volunteered: "I'm a little bit ill today."
Nobody asked. Across 16 years and 53 earnings calls, physical language from Musk appears at exactly one kind of moment. Genuine pressure.
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Future's 2 biggest songs in the world today are both Drake records, and his
new album has zero tracks on the Spotify daily charts 13 days after release.
The credits since 2024 tell the whole story.
Worst trade of the year. Day 338:
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