Michael J. Casper

@economistmeg @FT A surprise move by definition would not cause a parallel yield curve move. A surprise cut would steepen the US yield curve. Unclear if lower short rates causing higher UK inflation and growth would dominate higher long rates causing lower UK inflation and growth.

The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest in @FT ft.com/content/fa994b…

Scott Bessent reminds me of why I thought Al Gore would make a poor president. Despite being smart, his arrogance will lead to a major policy mistake.

Why doesn't UK ever discuss the elimination or scaling back of their pension triple lock? 65% of voters are in favor of maintaining it. Not an overwhelming majority when compared to maintaining current income tax and VAT rates.

@tomfriedman Would you view Israel's refusal to release Marwan Barghouti as a lack of intention for a two-state solution? Could his release be a bargaining chip down the line?

My column: Give Trump the Nobel for Gaza, if He Does the Hard Parts to Come nytimes.com/2025/10/09/opi…

Stark reaction difference between the Senate passage of the BBB and Starmer's welfare reversal.

Listening to Peter Navarro on Bloomberg. The right is hypocritical in blaming China/fentanyl for millions of deaths while in the case of guns blaming the individual.

The rise of 35 bps in Bund yields this week adds to the restrictiveness.

Ongoing pet peeve of mine. Lawyer politicians weighing in on cases that they can't possibly know all the facts. Vance on the Penny subway choking, Obama on the Ferguson killing.

Bullock's hawkish stance on government spending stands in sharp contrast to Powell. Especially considering Australia's deficit spending and debt level compared to the US.

@FanDuel_Racing @raypaulick @aus_turf_club @SkyRacingWorld @cmaherracing @CoolmoreAus @CWilliamsJockey One of the coolest most patient rides I have ever seen.

IT WAS BELLA NIPOTINA ON THE WIRE! The 7-year-old mare ran down previous winner Giga Kick to take the $20,000,000 The Everest (G1) at Randwick (@aus_turf_club) | @SkyRacingWorld. @cmaherracing trained the daughter of Pride Of Dubai (@CoolmoreAus), @CWilliamsJockey in the irons!

I wish an interviewer would ask Trump to explain crypto and why he supports it.

Isn't the S&P still up over 6% YTD? Not sure why the panic and calls for an emergency cut.

Snap elections don't seem to work out in this day and age.

@IFM_Economist Big disconnect between the market and economists. The OIS curve has a low of 3.97% in 3 years.

NAB pushes out cuts

In watching the underperformance of Trubisky, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, etc., are there any good articles based on analytics that break down fail rate by position for top 5 NFL picks? @dcsportsbog

I have been re-educating myself by reading the book “Can We Talk Israel”. Does anybody view the recent 10/7 Massacre and 1948 Deir Ysssin attacks similarly? @NewIsraelFund @jstreetdotorg

@GregDaco Not sure if that is true. 10y UST consistently trades 40 bps over the OIS curve while 30y UST trades 75 bps over. The UK has a similar profile, but Germany, Japan, Canada, and Australia are flat to below OIS.

The Bond Market Rally Is Overlooking a Soaring $2 Trillion Debt Problem bloomberg.com/news/features/…

@erikbryn Luck. Presidents have very little influence on the economy. The economy is predominantly a function of worldwide factors.

What’s the best explanation for this pattern? Luck? Policy? Something else?

@barrysvrluga From today’s news, Jim Leyland and Mike McDaniel were unheralded players while Ron Rivera was a 2nd round draft choice and consensus All-American.

@barrysvrluga My tweet from 3 months ago. A theory I have on great coaches/managers of the 3 major US pro sports. Most were unheralded players from small schools. In basketball the profile is a guard (usually a 1) who was a captain. Bud Grant, Steve Kerr, & Terry Francona are exceptions.

Mike McDaniel has a roster blessed with speed and is smart enough to be creative in using it. Josh Harris, please take notes. washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/12…