
Michael Kronthal
2.3K posts

Michael Kronthal
@mkronthal
Head of Research @ Gametime. Former Head of Product Research @ Hinge Health, Lime, Uber, Twitter, and Yahoo!. 'Daddy' to 4, casual IM triathlete, x-lax player


SEGMENT, ALWAYS SEGMENT Most confounding business problems have the same root cause: you haven't segmented your customers. You look at the top-line number. It's flat, or weird, or inconsistent with what your gut tells you. You poke at it and you can't figure out why. The answer is almost always that you're staring at an average that's hiding two or three very different stories. A few places this shows up: 1. When your high-level metrics look wonky or divergent, break them out by segment. A flat retention curve often hides one cohort churning out violently and another expanding aggressively. A "meh" NPS usually has one segment of fanatics and one segment of detractors cancelling each other out. The average is a lie. The segments are the truth. 2. When your product is trying to be everything to everyone, you need to tailor it per segment. If your roadmap has SMB founders, mid-market IT buyers, and Fortune 500 procurement all fighting for features in the same backlog, that's three products in a trench coat pretending to be one. Pick the segment you're actually building for, and ship accordingly. 3. When your pricing or positioning feels wrong no matter where you set it, it's because one SKU or pitch is spanning segments with wildly different needs or willingness to pay. Enterprise will pay 10x what a startup will for the exact same thing. A single price point either leaves money on the table at the top or closes the door at the bottom. Segment the packaging. Segment the price. The pattern holds every time. Whenever a business problem is hard to reason about, break the population into segments and look again. Nine times out of ten, the fog lifts. Importantly, you don't need to use standard gender or demographic segments. You can build your own! (And AI is a superpower here). One of the best segmentations in real life was done by @davidweiden at TellMe Networks in the early 2000s. TellMe was selling phone automation software into financial services: a half-billion dollar market, and they had almost no traction. David built a custom segmentation framework called Rifle, which scored every prospect on five weighted criteria. Where the customer was in their buying cycle (engage before the RFP, not after). Whether their long-distance carrier was compatible with TellMe's deployment model. Three more criteria with explicit weightings, including negative scores that disqualified prospects outright. The whole company aligned on the scoring. Sales stopped chasing bad-fit accounts. Product stopped building features for customers who would never close. Marketing stopped spraying the market. Over two years, Rifle drove $20M in ARR inside the qualified segment and took TellMe from a loss to a profit. They literally would have failed without the segmentation. . Founders: when a metric confuses you, when your product feels scattered, when your sales pitch or pricing won't land, segment. Segment, always segment.



Product strategy is becoming the most important skill not just for PMs, but software engineers and designers too. I put together the ultimate resource to building one based on my 16+ years of PM experience: news.aakashg.com/p/ai-product-s…




the most underrated hire right now is a great product person. when i say product person i'm def not talking about a product manager. perhaps i think there has to be somewhat of a new role. i don't have a good name for it yet but maybe something like "product thinker".. someone with an intuitive grasp of the product as it exists, where it's soft, where it sings, & how to iterate it toward something even sharper. in some sense, this person has to cohesively hold in their head where this product should be 2 years from now & work backwards from that. i say this cuz when building was hard, engineering was the bottleneck & the status hierarchy often reflected that. building is no longer hard. which means the variance in outcomes has shifted almost entirely to judgment on what to build, how to sequence it, & how to talk about it. & the story matters as much as the thing. internally, it organizes the team around a shared model of why. externally, it shapes the interpretive frame users bring to their first experience. you can't retrofit narrative onto a product & expect it to land, it has to be load bearing from the start. the rarest version of this person sits at the intersection of culture & deep technology. someone genuinely bilingual. they know what's technically possible & they know which cultural currents are real vs. ephemeral. that combo is what separates products that feel inevitable from products that feel assembled. before ppl clap back with this person has always been valuable, i know.. i am just saying now they might be the most *important* person in the room. their value compounds like never before.



we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack




You should be researching your users more. So I got an expert to give me a masterclass in how to do it with AI: Step 0: Load Context Into Claude - 8:22 Step 1: Per-Participant Analysis - 16:12 Step 2: Verification - 26:06 Step 3: Auditing AI - 51:31

I fell down a Reddit thread about PM storytelling and honestly the advice was better than most PM books. Here's what stood out: 1. Storytelling isn't a soft skill, it's an efficiency metric. You'll know it's working when meetings get shorter, fewer people argue past each other, and decisions happen faster. If that's not happening, your story isn't working regardless of how compelling it sounds. 2. I used to bury the decision in slide 10. Then I tried opening with "This meeting is to decide X" and suddenly people stopped asking "wait, what are we deciding?" 3. I started tracking where people interrupt me. When it happens at the same moment across different audiences, that's usually a structural problem in my narrative (basically A/B testing for stories), not just difficult people. 4. You're not trying to entertain people, you're trying to get them to remember what you said. Are they repeating your framing back to you? If they're using different words to describe the problem, you haven't told the story well enough. If they're quoting you verbatim, you've created a shared mental model. 5. The book StoryBrand is mentioned, but it is missing something critical for PMs: "what's in it for me?" for internal stakeholders. The framework works for customer-facing stories but doesn't address org-political dynamics. Engineering needs to know resourcing impact, sales needs customer benefit proof, execs need financial outcomes. 6. Specific customers work better than aggregate stats. "Sarah from enterprise account X spends 3 hours every Monday doing this manually" lands harder than "many users struggle with this." Nobody asks if one person is representative. 7. I set a timer before meetings and try to say the entire pitch in 60 seconds. If I can't finish, my narrative is too complex. 8. What reads well doesn't equal what sounds good. I read my deck script out loud before meetings now. You catch awkward phrasing, run-on sentences, and unclear logic that looked fine written down. 9. Storytelling quality might be an org design problem, not a skills problem. If poor storytelling creates drag (repeated meetings, misalignment, wasted resources), why does your org allow low-quality narratives to reach exec reviews? Elite companies might have forcing functions that prevent bad stories from consuming bandwidth. 10. The runway metaphor for capability sizing: frame customers as planes (Cessna to A380), frame your product as a runway. "We're trying to land enterprise A380s but our billing system runway can only handle a regional jet." Everyone immediately visualizes big plane on small runway = crash. 11. Before/after framing helps. What's broken today, what changes if we ship this. Makes complex product changes easier to grasp. 12. If people aren't repeating your framing weeks later, your story didn't stick. The real buy-in metric is whether your metaphor becomes shorthand in planning meetings without you being there. 13. The "charisma trap" is real. Most orgs claim to value substance over style, but meeting culture rewards performance. Amazon's 6-page memo culture explicitly removes charisma as a variable by forcing written narratives. 14. Bad storytelling might just be bad strategy in disguise. If you can't explain the stakes in one sentence, maybe the stakes aren't clear. Storytelling struggle is often thinking struggle. No amount of narrative polish fixes directional uncertainty. 15. I write down what each stakeholder actually gets from this. What does the eng lead get? What does sales get? What does the exec get? If I can't answer these, I'm probably pitching product value without the org-political piece.



Vibe coding is the new product management. Training and tuning models is the new coding.




The main problem with the “talk to customers” mantra in *top tier companies* is that the vast majority of your people who talk to customers are going into customer conversations for confirmation & performative heroics and not for learning & insight. So, they will cherrypick customer feedback, not actually listen to everything the customer is saying, follow certain threads for confirmation and ignore others that might point to disconfirmation, and then present their “findings” in a sexy & neat package that’s irresistible to the CEO & execs. There is no great solution to this problem, because most people, including >80% of highly intelligent people (in any company), are just wired to seek confirmation & validation. They are not wired with the desire to win in the market (even though everyone is sure they are). Now, if you must have a mantra to motivate & guide the masses in your company, make your mantra to “understand customers” rather than “talk to customers”. Talking is easy, understanding is rare. ‘Understanding’ is a much higher bar than ‘talking’, and that is precisely the kind of high bar a top-tier company must meet. And the best solution is leading from the top by yourself embodying what understanding customers truly means and holding an extremely high bar for insight that’s presented to you as the leader. As you nod along and confirm to yourself ‘I am already doing this’, consider that perhaps you aren’t, because if you were truly doing this in proportion to your ambition for your team & company, many more of your recent features and products would’ve won than has been the case. So perhaps the best place for you to start, as a leader, is to seriously consider how you yourself are falling short of the ideal that you wish for others on your team.




What people think improves AI products vs. what actually works with @chipro Chip Huyen was a core developer on @Nvidia’s Nemo platform, a former AI researcher at @Netflix, and taught AI at @Stanford. She’s a two-time founder and the author of two widely read books on AI, including "AI Engineering", which has been the most-read book on the O’Reilly platform since its launch. We discuss: 🔸 What people think makes AI apps better vs. what actually makes AI apps better 🔸 What is pre-training vs. post-training, and why fine-tuning should be your last resort 🔸 How RLHF (reinforcement learning from human feedback) actually works 🔸 Why high performers are seeing the most gains from AI coding tools 🔸 Why data quality matters more than which vector database you choose 🔸 Why most AI problems are actually UX issues 🔸 Much more Listen now 👇 • YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=qbvY0d… • Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0LhAVO… • Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/al-… Thank you to our wonderful sponsors for supporting the podcast: 🏆 @dscout — The UX platform to capture insights at every stage: from ideation to production: dscout.com 🏆 @justworks — The all-in-one HR solution for managing your small business with confidence: justworks.com 🏆 @withpersona — A global leader in digital identity verification: a former machine learning instructor



One of the things that seems like a huge distraction but has helped give me a pulse on the X userbase: I sit down with 2-5 users per day and go over their timeline and how they use X. And I try to do it with the most diverse set of users: moms, heads of state, scientists, artists, crypto traders. There is nothing more important than hearing people ask: • Why am I seeing this? • Why does this work that way? It’s normal for things to not work, but you need to have answers to these questions. Every decision an app developer makes has to be extremely intentional—or else who are you building for.
