Hillbert Von Neumann

FRANCE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF HISTORY SINCE 1940 - France capitulated to the Nazis and embraced the Vichy regime in 1940, which gladly handed over even more Jews than the Germans demanded. - Charles de Gaulle imposed a Mirage plane embargo just before the Six-Day War, even though Israel had already paid for the planes. In 1967, he also described the Jewish people as “a people of elites, self-assured and domineering.” - France welcomed Khomeini at Neauphle‑le‑Château in 1978, then sent him back to Iran in 1979, helping him seize power and establish one of the world’s deadliest regimes. - France met with Hezbollah officials after the Beirut port explosion in 2020, apparently to secure the reconstruction contract for French companies. - After the October 7 massacre, Macron barely mentioned the hostages or helped rescue them, even though 51 French citizens were killed in the massacre. - France equated Hamas with Israel, calling for a ceasefire while Hamas still held hostages, including French citizens. - France continued sending millions to UNRWA, even after it was proven that staff were implicated in the October 7 massacre, kidnapping Yonatan Samerano’s body and keeping Ditza Heiman hostage. - France refused to renew visas for El Al security personnel. - France invited Syrian jihadist leader Al-Julani to Europe, while he was massacring Druze and Alawites in Syria. - France tried to ban Israel from weapons fairs, and when that failed legally, it quietly shut down Israeli stands early in the morning, making it impossible to press charges, since technically, “they were allowed in.” - Macron did not participate in the national march against antisemitism, even as attacks surged after October 7. A 12-year-old Jewish girl was gang-raped for being Jewish, to “avenge Palestine.” - France’s courts stripped antisemitic motives from many recent cases, likely to mask the true scale of antisemitism. - France never helped Israel against Hezbollah, despite its close ties with Lebanon. - Paris’ new mayor put a Free Palestine activist, who constantly shares anti-Israel posts from antisemitic accounts, in charge of fighting antisemitism in the city. - And now, Macron refused to allow US aircraft to use French airspace en route to Israel. It doesn’t matter what Macron tweets about Israel, his actions speak for themselves. And they reveal exactly where he stands.

SPX rallied 2.9% today. This marks the first time in 90 trading days that SPX finished at least 2.85% above the prior close. Historically, these outsized upside shocks have tended to precede higher volatility rather than sustained momentum. Looking back to 2006, similar occurrences have generally been followed by choppier price action and weaker risk‑adjusted returns over the subsequent one to two weeks. What stands out in the data: 1) Near term returns skew negative. Average performance is negative across every horizon from 1 to 10 days, indicating poor follow through after the initial surge. 2) Weakness tends to deepen with time. Drawdowns are modest early but deteriorate meaningfully after Day 4, with the Days 6-8 window showing the worst combination of win rate and average return. 3) Volatility increases with a lag. The largest downside outcomes do not occur immediately; historical worst‑cases widen from single digit declines early on to roughly ‑20% or more within two weeks. 4) Upside tails are narrow. Strong positive follow through beyond one week is rare and largely driven by a single historical episode. 5) Even at horizons where outcomes are positive roughly 50% of the time, average returns remain firmly negative, implying losses have historically outweighed gains. Bottom line: Large upside shock days have tended to mark inflection points within downtrends rather than new trend accelerations. Price action becomes choppier and risk skews to the downside. History argues for expecting higher volatility and poorer risk-adjusted returns, not a smooth continuation higher.