Mohamed El Aassar

This, from Bloomberg, is not good news for a market segment that is already challenged to separate signal from noise, let alone properly differentiate among funds/firms in this space. #markets #privatecredit

QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. reuters.com/business/energ…

Lots of chatter in the oil market about whether a Saudi refinery in the Red Sea was attacked or not. One thing, however, appears clear: crude loadings at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz continue as normal, with 4 tankers getting their oil right now via the Hormuz bypass pipeline.

QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused. All personnel have been accounted for and no casualties have been reported at this time. QatarEnergy will continue to communicate the latest available information. #Qatar

There’s no shame in admitting that nobody really knows when or how this conflict ends. And I’m sick of reading the five point scenario analysis where a 20% chance is assigned to each scenario. We’re in unprecedented territory… everything we thought we understood about logic, markets, and strategy has been thrown out the door. #OOTT

BREAKING: Qatar says that its Ras Laffan industrial city, home to a massive LNG plan, was hit by Iranian missiles. "Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused." Note the wording: "extensive damage"

Iran’s semi-official media has published a list of retaliatory energy targets: Ras Laffan refinery – Qatar Samref oil refinery – Saudi Arabia Al Hosn gasfield – UAE Jubail petchem plant – Saudi Arabia Mesaieed petchem plant – Qatar

Oaktree's Howard Marks says investors are probably better off buying stock in AI-focused companies rather than lending them money. “If you’re taking fundamental business model risk, shouldn’t you get paid for it by being an owner rather than a fixed-income investor?” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

♦️Once the war ends, the full extent of the devastation to the Arab Gulf economies will become clear—and it will ripple outward, indirectly hammering the broader Arab world and dependent economies like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Indonesia. ♦️Today's stark example: Macquarie has withdrawn from a $7 billion deal to acquire a stake in Kuwait's oil pipeline network, explicitly citing the Iran war and the uncertain regional outlook. ♦️The Gulf states have pursued aggressive economic diversification for years: Industrialization and non-oil exports (especially petrochemicals and downstream industries) — now largely paralyzed by disrupted shipping, closed export routes and damaged infrastructure. ♦️Real estate and tourism — sectors that were booming — now effectively shut down amid airspace closures, security fears, and canceled travel. ♦️Overseas investments in the West — a key pillar of sovereign wealth strategy — now under pressure as oil/gas revenues have collapsed, forcing governments to repatriate capital or halt new commitments just to cover domestic shortfalls. ♦️The war isn't just a temporary shock; it's undermining the very foundations of reforms across the region.

Now in its third week, the Middle East War is triggering more economic and financial tipping points, both within the energy sector (see the Bloomberg data below) and well beyond. Remember, the key dynamic here is the shift from "mean reversion" to "multiple equilibria" -- that is, a move toward a less favorable economic and financial outcome makes further adverse moves more likely, rather than a return to the status ante. #economy #markets #middleeastwar

Investors fleeing Mideast turmoil find safe haven in ‘sweet spot’ Malaysia #Echobox=1773732574" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">scmp.com/news/asia/sout…

Further ominous developments today. For first time, Iran successfully targeted oil/gas production facilities (rather than refining, terminals and storage): Oil and gas field in the UAE (Shah) hit Oil field in Iraq (Majnoon) attacked Plus Saudi Arabia saw large drone swarms

Companies House has put out a statement confirming that, for five months, every company in the UK was vulnerable to the simple exploit we identified on Friday. It enabled anyone in the world to view and change their company details.

"We risk going from short-term disruption to long-term structural damage to the oil market," @elerianm tells me. "The increase in the oil price is going to persist for a while and that is going to mean not only higher interest rates, but lower growth, higher unemployment and a greater risk of financial instability."

Silver Lining for the "High Beta" UK: The UK’s markets' tendency to overreact to global shocks—its "high beta" status—is proving beneficial today. As oil prices retreat, UK bond yields are falling more sharply than those of other countries (Bloomberg table below). #economy #uk #markets

"The unexamined life is not worth living" Socrates, quoted in Plato’s Apology, 399 BC.

Exclusive: Peter Mandelson made more than £1.5m selling his shares in Global Counsel before it went bust, including being paid £250,000 for his remaining stake two weeks before administration as firm battled crisis caused by his links to Epstein @FT as.ft.com/r/66c6cb70-7c2…

Former White House energy adviser Bob McNally says there are no policy solutions to address rising gas prices if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. cbsn.ws/47uHfgI

If the U.S. government gave the go-ahead for a sale to the Gulf states of lasers to shoot down drones tomorrow, it would take months for defense contractor AeroVironment to scale up its production. cbsn.ws/4doN8Qh

"Putin was selling oil at just $50 a barrel. But now India has a waiver to buy Russian energy. Russia is telling India it will not give any more discounts because sanctions are gone and India needs Russia now. So they're charging $90 a barrel," says energy expert Amos Hochstein