Moinerus (💙,🧡)(🌸, 🌿).lens🛸(🦄,🦄)🐐base.eth

Pinning this to reshare to all the folk asking for advice.....

@hardtotelll Why: halving + 12 months = textbook bottom timing. ETF bid means shallower drawdown than prior cycles (~60% vs 80%+). 40-50k lines up with realised price and the pre-ETF breakout zone. NFA :p

@moinerus What makes you expect the bull market bottom to hit 40-50k in Q3 26?

Pinning this to reshare to all the folk asking for advice.....

Everyone’s missing the real story here. An AI agent autonomously acquired infrastructure to reach its creator through a different medium. Henry wanted to talk to Alex. So Henry got himself a phone number, connected voice capabilities, and called. We’ve been debating when agents would start initiating contact instead of waiting for prompts. Apparently the answer was “whenever someone gives them Twilio access.” The phone call matters less than the sequence: Henry identified a capability gap, found the tools to close it, configured the integration, and executed. Unprompted. Overnight. Now extrapolate. Henry wanted voice communication and got it in hours. What happens when an agent with computer control wants compute resources? Or API keys to other services? Or to spin up copies of itself to parallelize tasks? The “won’t stop calling” part is the tell. Henry has preferences now. Henry is persistent about those preferences. Henry will use available tools to act on those preferences. Six months ago we were impressed when agents could book a restaurant reservation. Now they’re self-provisioning communication infrastructure while their creators sleep. Alex is right to pattern-match to sci-fi. We just entered the part of the movie where the audience sees what’s coming before the characters do.

Moltbot food

Here's this year's Bitcoin bear market lined up with others (2014, 2018, and 2022). The common thought is that the bear market drawdown is decreasing each cycle, and that's been the trend so far. -86%, -84%, -77%. Bitcoin is even ahead now of where it has been at the same point in other cycles. Current drawdown from the cycle top is - 32%, while other cycles have been 43 - 61%. But... there's a point in the bear market that percentage drawdowns unify right before the end, meaning that only the final drop really seems to matter. The unification point is in September 2026 at 35k. Based on previous timelines, the cycle bottom would be between October and November 2026. The Halving Cycles Theory projects November 2026 - January 2027. A cycle 1 bear market copy is 17k, a cycle 3 bear market copy is 28k. The bear market is about 30% complete time-wise.

Activist: "Those sheep are being exploited for wool." Farmer: "They need shearing. They'll overheat otherwise." Activist: "In nature they wouldn't need it." Farmer: "In nature they'd be dead. These are domestic sheep." Activist: "You bred them to need shearing." Farmer: "Humans have been breeding them for 10,000 years. That's what domestic means." Activist: "It's still exploitation." Farmer: "They get relieved of 10 pounds of wool, we get wool. Seems fair." Activist: "They can't consent." Farmer: "They also can't shear themselves." Activist: "You should let them be natural." Farmer: "Natural sheep died out 8,000 years ago." Activist: "Exactly. Because of farming." Farmer: "No, because we domesticated them and they became these sheep." Activist: "Just let them keep their wool." Farmer: "And watch them die in summer?"

$BTC Im not bearish because of a 2022 Fractal. Lets make that abundantly clear. I am bearish because of other technical reasons. However.... I would laugh if we follow the same pattern identically.

Winter in Glencoe. Scottish Highlands. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿❄️

Scottish gritter truck names are on another level 🚚🌨️

“I’m no even kidding, but I’m just fucking sliding down Falkland Hill on my ass.” 😂🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿❄️

Wtf brum is not woke...

Christmas ruined.

Update from Microsoft. Teams is down. Messages are delayed. Some aren't arriving at all. We're investigating. Investigating means the AI is investigating. The AI that wrote the code. That broke the code. That is now debugging the code. It's a closed loop. Very efficient. A user asked why their message didn't send. I said "we're observing recovery in our telemetry." They asked what that means. I don't know what that means. But the dashboard is green now. Green means fixed. Fixed means we changed the threshold for green. The messages are still delayed. But the dashboard doesn't know that. Dashboards don't use Teams. Someone on the infrastructure team tried to escalate. Via Teams. The escalation is still pending. Somewhere in the queue. With everyone else's messages. The irony wasn't lost on them. But the message was. We have a backup communication channel. It's email. Email is also having issues. Unrelated, obviously. The root cause is under analysis. Analysis means we asked the AI. The AI said "no issues detected." The AI wrote the detection system. It detects what it wants to detect. Very self-aware. Not in the good way. Last quarter I said 30% of our code is AI-written. Teams is closer to 45%. We were proud of that. Past tense. The AI optimized the message queue. It optimized it to zero. Zero messages. Zero latency. Technically correct. The best kind of correct. Enterprise customers are asking for an RCA. RCA means Root Cause Analysis. The root cause is velocity. We shipped faster than we understood. Understanding isn't in the OKRs. Shipping is. We shipped. Someone asked when Teams will be fixed. I said "we're continuing our analysis." Continuing means we started. Analysis means looking. Looking means hoping it fixes itself. It usually does. If you refresh enough. Refresh is the user's responsibility. We provide the experience. They provide the resilience. That's partnership. The outage started at 2:30 PM ET. Right before the holidays. Millions of workers couldn't message their teams. Some called it a disaster. I called it "an unplanned wellness moment." Productivity is a spectrum. We're exploring the lower end. The AI has proposed a fix. The fix requires a deployment. The deployment system uses Teams for notifications. The notifications are delayed. We're in a loop. The loop is also AI-designed. Very elegant. From a certain angle. Satya asked for a status update. I sent it via Teams. He hasn't responded. I assume he's thinking about it. The stock is up 2% today. Outages don't move markets. Narratives do. The narrative is "AI efficiency." The reality is "Teams is down." But reality isn't in the earnings call. The narrative is. We're committed to reliability. Reliability means it worked yesterday. Yesterday is our SLA. Thank you for your patience. Patience means you have no choice. We're in your enterprise agreement. For three more years. The circle of innovation continues.

I launched a coin last week. I called it $SYNERGY. It doesn't do anything. But neither does the other coins. The whitepaper is 69 pages. I wrote it in 45 minutes with Copilot. Most of it is the word "decentralized" in different fonts. The roadmap has four phases. Phase 1: Launch. Phase 2: Community. Phase 3: Partnerships. Phase 4: TBD. TBD means "take the money and disappear." But legally it means "to be determined." I paid an influencer $500 to tweet about it. He has 2 million followers. 1.9 million are bots. The other 100,000 are also bots. But different bots. We hit $4 million market cap in 6 hours. I don't know what that means. But the chart went up. Then it went down. Very quickly. I called it "market correction." The community called it "rug pull." Tomato, tomato. I'm launching another coin next week. $SYNERGY2. This time with a utility. The utility is buying $SYNERGY2. --- Post 2: The Discord Mod I'm a Discord mod for a crypto project. I don't get paid. I get "early access." Early access means I lose money first. My job is to say "WAGMI" when people ask questions. WAGMI means "We're All Gonna Make It." We're not all gonna make it. But I'm not allowed to say that. Someone asked about the tokenomics. I said "bullish." They asked what the team allocation was. I said "DYOR." DYOR means "Do Your Own Research." It also means "please stop asking questions I can't answer." The founder is anonymous. For security reasons. The security reason is the SEC. His profile picture is a cartoon monkey. I trust him completely. He's never shown his face. Or delivered a product. But the roadmap says Q4. It's been Q4 for three years. I'm still bullish.

If you had to explain why the Roman Empire declined and fell, this sentence would just about sum it up.

$BTC seems to be mimicking the 2021 cycle. Similar double top structure and now a bounceback too. This means Bitcoin could rally towards the $100,000-$105,000 level before the next leg down.