Martin Morris

Environment Canada 🇨🇦 upgraded their global weather model today. Major change: hybrid machine learning (nudging) + full-physics NWP World's first such global forecasting combined system --> huge skill gains.

@WxOntario1 Perhaps the warmest day of the next two weeks

Mild start to the day across Southern #Ontario Temps range from near 10C to the mid teens Stellar afternoon on tap with widespread temps in the mid/ upper 20s, some areas may near the 30C mark Clear blue skies with the odd passing cloud possible #OnWX #ONStorm

The drought relief saga continues for the southeast USA 🇺🇸

A strong and extensive westerly wind burst is forecast near the equator over the coming weeks. It should amplify the warming effects of a Kelvin wave crossing the basin, push warm surface waters eastward into the Niño 3.4 region and elevate chances for a super El Niño this year.

This is the most legit tropical storm type environment I've ever seen in #Toronto / #Ontario with constant gusty winds & stratiform / non-thunderstorm rainfall pounding down. It's a balmy 9C outside 🥶 Some tree branches down, leaves and localized flooding too #ONstorm #ONWX

A sizable surge of tropical moisture will set the stage for possible flooding downpours this weekend and next week across the South and East. There's long-distance moisture flowing from the Pacific, where El Niño-related warmth is building, as well as the Gulf and Caribbean.

@WxOntario1 It’s like the springtime Lake Breeze off L. Ontario got completely wrapped into this system

Feels like an October day out there across most of Southern #Ontario 💨🌧🥶 A very strange system for this time of year- soaking rain, cool temps and consistent gusty winds Almost feels like a late fall tropical storm! Don't worry, things start to improve tomorrow and into next week! #OnWX #ONStorm

Winter-like system. Even some CAD

@WxOntario1 @Brentw96 Laws were starting to burn during that semi-heatwave last week

@Brentw96 @morris98l In the summer, most of the times it rains where it matters rural areas - crops If the city cores/ GTA don't see rain, the lawns burn, and the world ends 🤣

The soaking rain has begun across SW #Ontario Not much has changed with the heaviest rainfall still expected near / north shores of Lk #Erie and Ont and from #Chatham to #Barrie 30-50mm (locally 50-70mm) possible for those areas A general 10-25mm elsewhere Rain starts to taper off from west to east later this evening Rainfall map below valid through 12am Sunday #OnWX #ONStorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in S. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts: shorturl.at/xL0fe #onwx #onstorm

8AM EDT (12Z) Synoptic “Snapshot” summary of current atmospheric conditions in N. Ontario Includes info on pressure/fronts/temps/radar/etc. A precipitation outlook for the day until midnight & other WX-maps as needed. Active ECCC Alerts:None at Post #onwx #onstorm

No matter how we get there, this pattern could really help the southeastern drought. No one knows how much we wind up with in the end, but for the rest of the month there will be many chances to get good soil moisture.

@WxOntario1 And it’s not enough!!! 50mm today before the summer heat settles in would be a much better start than last year! 🥂

@morris98l The splash of rain every 5 days or so is keeping many away from drought

@WxOntario1 Flash drought almost bit with ponding from the the April rain still around, weird weather whiplash

@morris98l Yes, very dry across a lot of places

@stormwx1 Looks like those snowstorm maps from this winter with the S.On bullseye showing up on hires models in the lead up

Watch for localized flooding this afternoon if the HRRR model is realized with several hours of heavy rain training through the region especially this aft-eve. Thoughts are it’s a bit aggressive but locally 50+mm by late tonight not out of the question around the GTHA.

Toronto's legendary Highway 401

Latest "Big Picture" Radar/LTNG⚡️/GOES19 Water Vapour imagery (lime green colour) -all showing strong Low pressure currently over the lower Miss Valley forcing "deep atmospheric moisture" northward towards SONT.-for a real soaking 4 many parts of SONT-next 48 hrs. #onwx #onstorm

Latest HRRR comes in with 50-60mm of rain from London to Toronto today... 9°C at 4pm with steady rain and gusty south easterly winds off of Lake Ontario. Suboptimal weekend weather

Preferred +ENSO analogs for June favor upper West heat and wet/cool conditions continuing for Texas.