Commodity Wx Group

@Mission12022026 @AntoineLiagre1 @Aigle_e We're over 2x stronger with El Nino here in July versus 1972.

@AntoineLiagre1 @commoditywx @Aigle_e 1982 was a strong +PDO. 1972 is a much better analog, but the PDO wasn't that deeply negative. 2023 as well, but the ENSO wasn't as strong. I'd go 1972 ENSO/2023 PDO as top analogs.

We've never seen an El Niño this strong with a -PDO this strong before in our dataset back through 1950. This unusual setup is fueling a hotter than expected summer but El Niño's high global wind anomaly is preventing heat ridges from locking long in any one place.

@craigmatthews48 According to NOAA, July 1972 was a weak El Nino but yes PDO was quite negative. So looking for strong-super here in July with strong -PDO is turning up...nothing. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/e…

@commoditywx What about 1972-73?

@_ClimateCraze The blue horseshoe around it on the east side is also sign of a strong -PDO. And NOAA agrees. ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/e…

Commodity thinks one red spot represents a hot PDO. The real PDO is a bit chilly ... ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitor…

Corn and soy ratings increased slightly; Corn silking reaches 34% nationally. commoditywx.com/news/20260713/…

Clusters of long lead models show increased chance of another Midwest to East heat event in early August.

Impressive ERCOT rains this week, especially for middle July.

@HAlmanack nbcnews.com/science/scienc… We've been using "Super" since the 1997 event, which mimicked the 82-83 super-level. It's a way to classify these more extreme cases vs. standard strong events.

@commoditywx There is no such level as a Super El Niño; the Climate Prediction Center uses only Very Strong categorization for anomalies in excess of 2 degrees Celsius above average.

Daily satellite estimates show ENSO 3.4 reaching super El Niño status (+2C) over past 24 hours, earliest on record.

Models shifting cooler for East to South by late 6-10 day into early 11-15 day, as heat ridge backs up into Western Canada.

Each of the lowest yielding France cases dragged down Europe corn more than current estimates. commoditywx.com/news/20260707/…

Recent drier trends in parts of Texas and the Southeast for cotton are favored to moderate in the next 15 days, although confidence is lowest for the West Texas relief based on model disagreements. commoditywx.com/news/20260707/…

@dgoldweather Thanks! That seems reasonable, particularly as this mammoth event continues to strengthen. The combination of unusual lingering -IOD and -PDO have brought the frequent north-based, west-east stretched heat ridging looks of 2002 to the forefront in our 500mb analogs.

Indirectly perhaps. There have been competing influences from the monsoon systems and from the strengthening low frequency/ENSO-related forcing. Basically convective hotspots firing in multiple areas at once, each contributing to the overall response - What Ed Berry used to call “new world atmosphere”! This probably played a role in shaping the response to CPAC forcing that led to the western trough-eastern ridge. Maybe we finally get a more canonical outcome now.

Top analog 15-day, all-model pattern matches highlight high global wind anomaly-driven, north-based heat ridging for Lower 48.

@dgoldweather Nice, David! The prevailing pattern has struggled to be as classic of a high GLAAM/GWO state (+PNA) as is typical so far this summer....could it be the rare combination of a strong negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation weakening NHEM AAM vs. SHEM?

@commoditywx A significance-tested, detrended composite for the relevant GWO phases. Note the DSW monsoon signal and limited eastward expanse of heat risks.

Watching some brief Mid-Atlantic heat late next week, but not forecast to be anything like last week's record-breaking scorch.

Models shifting cooler and wetter for Texas for upcoming two weeks (El Niño).

While some warmer/drier model risks remain toward mid-month in the Midwest, conditions are favored to roll forward wetter/cooler given recent trends. commoditywx.com/news/20260706/…

Compared to the 5-year average, the worst corn/soy ratings reside outside of the Midwest. commoditywx.com/news/20260706/…

Challenging summer without any historical analog to current strong east-based El Niño and strong -PDO combination.