Commodity Wx Group

Short-lived East PJM heat event should outperform middle April, but may still fall short of mid-90s records.

Main model debate is around days 10-14, which is essentially Memorial Day weekend. Agreement for Western heat and cool Texas conditions, but Consuming East is less certain.

Daily 3.4 SST estimates show El Niño strengthening faster than 2015 and 1997.

More rain in TX/OK than expected over the weekend and increasingly wet trends next week suggest that wetter El Niño correlations may be finally kicking in for the S. Plains. commoditywx.com/news/20260511/…

U.S. Crop Analysis: Week #19 Long-term dryness and cold in the Plains worsened winter wheat conditions despite some recent precipitation. commoditywx.com/news/20260511/…

An analysis of stronger El Niño events since 1950 yields little in the way of serious crop risks to U.S. corn/soy this summer. commoditywx.com/news/20260506/…

Odds for mid-month relief are improving slightly for S. Plains wheat, but analogs remain more supportive than most modeling for now. commoditywx.com/news/20260505/…

Wheat rated poor/very poor increased; summer crop seeding still pacing faster than the 5-year average per the latest USDA crop progress report. commoditywx.com/news/20260504/…

Brazil safrinha corn losses during 2018 appear to have been driven by a combination of later planting and more aggressive late-season dryness than this season. commoditywx.com/news/20260430/…

While a notably cooler May pattern is likely for U.S. corn/soy, yields in similar cases were still mosty driven by summer weather. commoditywx.com/news/20260428/…

Record cool/wet pattern threatens larger corn seeding issues in Russia. commoditywx.com/news/20260427/…

Winter wheat rated poor/very poor increased; corn/soy/cotton seeding continues to progress faster than the average pace. commoditywx.com/news/20260427/…

Already seeing atmospheric response as sea surface temperatures move into weak El Niño territory.

Strong cool push to introduce May for Eastern U.S.

Impressive upper level pattern match to weak El Niño May with positive global wind anomalies.

Euro weekly clustering's top 2 options for weeks 3-4.

Wetter outlook next 2 weeks likely stalls late soybean harvest in far S. Brazil. commoditywx.com/news/20260422/…

Latest targets still into super-range for El Niño by late Q3 into early Q4. Daily data estimates are already in weak intensity.

Top pattern analogs favor cool start to May for much of U.S., similar to mean of AIFS/European ensembles.

Euro weekly clusters lean toward cooler pattern for weeks 3-4.