kia
2.4K posts
🇮🇷🇵🇰 Iran's president just shouted out Pakistan for stepping in
Pezeshkian called up PM Shehbaz Sharif today, thanking them for mediating to stop the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Meanwhile, Saudi, Egypt, and Turkey foreign ministers are heading to Islamabad for bigger talks on ending the war.
Source: Al Jazeera
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇱 The Israeli government has approved a plan to block new outposts and dismantle illegal ones in the West Bank. This comes after 25 Palestinians have already been killed this year, most by settlers, according to the UN. The question is whether enforcement actually follows, or if this is just words as attention shifts elsewhere. Source: AP
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@tparsi @GeorgeBeebe13 @ForeignPolicy just put it on X as an article
legacy media paywalling themselves out of relevance
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Trump failed to listen to better counsel, and America is facing a debacle in the Persian Gulf as a result. But it isn't too late to end this unnecessary war through a sensible compromise.
My colleague @GeorgeBeebe13 and I lay out in @ForeignPolicy a politically feasible deal that would end the war, reopen the Straits of Hormuz, stabilize the Middle East, and restore nuclear diplomacy.
The key elements are:
1. A non-aggression pact that encompasses the US, Iran, Israel, as well as Iran's allied organizations
2. Complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in return for sanctions relief for states seeking to buy Iranian oil and finance Iranian post-war reconstruction. Iran would also commit to denominating at least half of its oil sales in USD.
3. Tehran would renew its stated commitment to never pursue nuclear weapons, followed by renewed nuclear talks premised on preventing nuclear weapons rather than enrichment.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/26/tru…
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@NickSzabo4 @Selkis_2028 @Crime_In_NYC @MarineTraffic or maybe it’s not opening up the way you think it is.
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A small number of Chinese commercial ships turned back at Hormuz. Most likely cause: miscommunication between the diplomats who negotiated passage rights and the IRGC navy which is enforcing those terms. The naval commander was just assassinated by Israel, so the "toll booth" is likely operating in full paranoia mode.
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COSCO vessels abort Strait of Hormuz transit attempt amid ongoing instability
Following COSCO’s announcement to resume booking acceptance to Gulf destinations, new developments overnight suggest the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly unstable.
According to #MarineTraffic data, two of its Ultra Large Container Vessels, CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean, attempted to transit the strait but turned back at approximately 03:20 and 03:50 UTC, indicating that safe passage could not be guaranteed. This marks the first attempted crossing by a major container carrier since the start of the conflict.
Both vessels operate on COSCO’s MEX service, part of the Ocean Alliance network linking the Middle East with the Far East. COSCO, a Chinese carrier, is currently the world’s fourth-largest container shipping line by capacity.
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@DavidSacks thanks for everything you did for the country.
lucky to have you leading the council.
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After all the accomplishments in our first year, President Trump has even bigger priorities for 2026. The President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology is hitting the ground running to deliver more wins for America.
foxbusiness.com/politics/trump…
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@antoniogm @abishek same way every retail wanted to sell you their credit cards in 2000s and 2010s
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What non-crypto people don't realize is that crypto makes it possible for every app to become a 'bank' and offer yield on balances, payments, investments, and a lot more.
Every app where people get paid--Instacart, DoorDash, Uber, etc.--will become banking and brokerage apps.
Whop@whop
Introducing Whop Treasury. Earn 6% yield on all money earned on Whop.
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@MarioNawfal no
IRGC wants the war to continue
permawar state
what’s destroyed is gone
not much more to lose
don’t have to deal with post war protest, power struggles, normalization etc.
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UPDATE: I’m really struggling to call what happens next
On one hand, Trump needs an off-ramp to limit the global economic damage and growing domestic political pressure
Iran would also like this war to end before more cities are leveled and more leaders are killed
On the other hand, Iran is doing surprisingly well controlling the Strait, striking the Gulf and Israel, and selling oil for more than twice the price than before the war, making a killing
And on the American side, troops are heading to the region for what increasingly looks like a ground operation to control Hormuz
Negotiations are the most promising development since February 28th. But Iran's warnings to Gulf nations against supporting any ground operation, combined with maximalist demands from both sides, make a deal unlikely in the short term
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
UPDATE: It's starting to seem that IRGC factions within Iran are keen to keep the war going and seek revenge Yesterday we had reports that the unrealistic demand of removing U.S. bases from the region was no longer on the table, but today it seems it's back Why? 1. Iran is selling more oil than before the war, and at a higher price. So they are making more money now versus before 2. They feel they have the upper hand, and rightly so: They control the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf nations are suffering economically, and Israel is getting bombed daily. The global economy is also getting hit hard 3. We've killed their Supreme Leader with his family, and bombed the hell out of their country, in a war started in the middle of negotiations. How would you expect them to feel? Is a deal still possible? Yes. If pragmatism beats ideology and vengeance.
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@shahpas @snackvampire during ahmadinejad tenure it was repeated at nauseam to the level of being the explicit doctrine that 'any country that assists the US in targeting iran will be retaliated against'
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Not that I expect you to care, but the scenario(s) that have played out in this conflict are distinct from the many scenarios discussed over the past twenty or so years. Small differences to the untrained eye, perhaps, but important ones at that. If, as many presume, US/Israeli intelligence thoroughly penetrated Iran's national security apparatus (in case this is not clear, this is not my claim), then it is only fair to ask how much the Americans and Israelis knew about the specifics of what Iran was going to do and why they do not appear to have done anything about it in anticipation. Specifics include, among other things, Shahed-136 strike drones flying over "downtown" Dubai on day 1, rushing up the escalation ladder to target not just American and even Gulf Arab military bases but energy targets on day 1, and so forth.
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this is such a funny post "did iran compartmentalize the information they would expand the war to the gulf states and close the strait of hormuz if attacked to keep the us from finding out?"
dawg they posted it on twitter and wrote a letter to the united nations warning of exactly what they would do and literally why do YOU and other "policy analysts" let alone supposed intelligence agencies not know this?
x.com/DD_Geopolitics…
do y'all have internet or
Shahryar Pasandideh@shahpas
🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 The June 2025 Iran-Israel War left many thinking that Iran's national security apparatus was thoroughly penetrated by Israeli and/or American intelligence. The assassination of Ali Khamenei seemingly confirmed this. And yet, Israel and the U.S. appear to have not known about Iran's pre-approved war plan, which reportedly called for a deliberate horizontal and vertical escalation of a new war to the Persian Gulf and, through that action, the taking of the world economy hostage. How and why is that? Did the United States and Israel not know of these plans? Did they think that their intelligence on such Iranian war plans amounted to Iran bluffing? Iran's counterintelligence capabilities do not appear to have been omnipotent on 28 February, or else Ali Khamenei and many senior military officers would presumably still be alive. Did Iran successfully compartmentalize this information such that it did not become known to Israel and the United States (if so, Iran forwent possible deterrent value in exchange for a higher probability of operational success if/when said plans were executed)? These are some of the great many uncertainties about this war that appear to be largely overlooked in what passes for serious discussion and debate. To be determined.
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Please let me know when I can just tell claude code “make me money and deposit in my bank account” and it does it
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kia retweetledi
Crashed out this weekend about tokenmaxxing given the recent Anthropic secondary.
Wrote up why token volume is a linear metric being priced as a convex outcome and what I'm doing about it
zain@zainbacchus
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🇮🇷 Iran’s spokesman says foreign countries have “no right” to interfere in the Persian Gulf.
Claims Iran fully controls the Strait of Hormuz and can ensure security “by any means if needed.”
Says they won’t hesitate if the situation escalates.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's Supreme Leader's senior military adviser said the war continues until Iran receives full compensation, all sanctions are lifted, and legally binding international guarantees prevent future U.S. interference. He also claimed the war was effectively over a week ago, the U.S. wanted to stop, but Netanyahu pushed to continue. CNN
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@MarioNawfal could be that iran wants to talk to a different american team
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I don’t know if Trump lied about his Iran negotiations, or whether Iran’s going through an internal power struggle
But today’s developments made me a lot more hopeful of the current war
Trump does not want a forever war, and he may actually pull off a Venezuela 2.0
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
MAJOR DEVELOPMENT: The man Trump claimed he was negotiating with just said this is fake news by Trump to manipulate the financial and oil markets This means one of two things: 1. Trump lied 2. The IRGC pressured the Iranian negotiator to pull out of the talks My bet is on #2, and we are seeing a power struggle in Iran in real time As explained in my post below, we are seeing a split in Iran between the ideological and radical IRGC, which are fighting for their survival, and the more moderate and pragmatic executive branch This could get ugly
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I think Iran just blinked to Trump’s threats
Is this why oil went back below $100?
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
Oil is back down below $100 Is there something we don’t know, maybe Iran folding to Trump’s threats? Or some deal being made behind the scenes? Either way, that’s good news
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key to understanding this conflict:
“The Shia tradition is built on the story of Husayn ibn Ali, the third Shia Imam, who knew he would die at Karbala in 680 CE. He had 72 companions against thousands. He went anyway. In Shia theology, standing against injustice is obligatory especially when you cannot win in conventional terms. Defeat and death are not failure, capitulating in the face of overwhelming injustice is the failure.”
Radigan Carter@radigancarter
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@MarioNawfal how does this make sense?
the totality of production will be sold at market prices (not just the surplus).
wouldn't domestic consumers also pay the higher price?
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Energy Secretary Wright:
"Fortunately, the US produces more oil than we can consume. We're a net oil exporter. So overall for the US economy, this isn't bad news."
Ok... and how about America's historical allies in Europe and Asia?
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@DavidSacks wouldn't high oil prices mean eventually American oil flows into the world market and lead to high prices here in the US too?
regardless of production/consumption numbers netting zero
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This is a smart strategy. Thanks to President Trump, the U.S. is energy independent. The countries that actually depend on Gulf oil should apply pressure to reopen the strait.
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