Mate Pencz

Patrick Collison tells people in their 20s to not move to San Francisco. William largely agrees with him. He thinks SF has a consensus problem and has removed the risk from becoming a founder: "I'm a product of Silicon Valley. I started Plaid back in 2012. I've been there since I was 21, and it's very easy to stay in Silicon Valley. But you can start to get isolated and get very consensus focused. San Francisco is probably the most consensus place I've ever been to. That is both a huge crutch for us, but it's also probably the most valuable asset. As a founder, if you're building in something that SF believes is very consensus, but the world does not believe yet, that's actually a great operating environment. That's why Silicon Valley and SF are so dynamic and we're so in front of the curve. But we also have completely lost touch with how the rest of the world operates. Even how the everyday American operates. So I think it's very important to go to places that don't have that same bias. If you think about emerging markets specifically – the founders who build there, they're the everyday people, they live in this constrained society. They're constrained in a way that San Francisco and New York isn't. And that breeds a different type of creativity, it breeds a different type of innovation that you really can't get anywhere else. If you go to talk to people in London or Vienna or San Francisco, people are living in a world of abundance. And that causes a very specific creation cycle. SF and Silicon Valley are probably more akin to Wall Street in the 1990s than they are like a research lab in Cambridge in like the 1950s. Maybe that was Silicon Valley in the 90s, but it's not anymore. You talk to a 23-year-old and assuming you're like moderately competent and went to the right high school and college, you're going to get a $3 million seed round. And worst case scenario, you can go work at like a great company as an engineer and you'll have "founder" on your resume. There is no risk in that proposition. If you go back to pre-2008, you're on the edge of the knife, and I think that creates just so much intensity in creativity and fear that is such a critical part of the founder journey. Starting companies is just too f**king safe, and it's caused a lot of companies to be super safe companies -- like we're going to pivot to AI and wrap OpenAI/Anthropic. That's not bold, that's not ambitious. And it's because we are attracting founders that actually want to be employees. They don't think and say "if I don't pull this off, I'm going to become bankrupt. My life is over." I think that's pretty healthy. That's when you bring out the rawness of humanity. And I don't see that very much anymore."

@jeffye888 Thanks, Jeff! Keep up the good work brother

Apologies to the $OPEN army but won’t be able to get a full pre-earnings article out before tomorrow earnings but here are my high-level thoughts heading into another blockbuster event. Stock price has fallen a lot since last earnings so overall I would say expectations are lower; however, it’s so hard to handicap what’s going to move the stock given how hard this business is to value. Overall, I’d say there’s a strong narrative up for grabs that Opendoor could be an AI-winner by finally disrupting the real estate space (fool me twice shame on me right?). We’re starting to see stories like this in other “legacy” sectors (see $CHRW) but it just needs to be proven out with the numbers. I believe the most important metrics that investors will be looking at are: Post-Kaz inventory performance - this basically sums up the whole she-bang. it’ll be interesting to see how / if they break this out but essentially Opendoor needs to show that the “Kaz magic” is real and that the homes they bought post his arrival are fundamentally positive margin. If they can make a compelling case for this then investors will be willing to write off all of the “Carrie” inventory (breakeven CM) and start to model “run-rate” performance (positive CM).  Additional services attach rate and “pro-forma” margin impact at scale - this is what gets big money excited. Showing clear growth and progress around attach rates and margin contribution for title, insurance, and mortgage will finally get the “Amazon for real estate” story off the ground. Mortgage especially deserves a call-out as it has been a clear focus for the company and would be a huge “buyer unlock” in terms of accelerating buyer demand and resale. Also plays into the AI story as it’s an area clearly ripe for disruption (see $CHRW as a poster child for AI-powered stock rocket fuel) Operating efficiency and net-income profitability guidance - at the same time Opendoor also needs to continue providing visibility on overall operating efficiency and when the “cash fire” is expected to stop. If there’s clearer line of sight into cash-flow profitability or a move up a quarter - investors will pay attention. This is probably the biggest fundamental reason for shorts and any guidance around this could potentially accelerate position closing (this is a real business??) Worth a callout here is marketing spend and CAC efficiency. Kaz has explicitly said this is something they’re being very mindful of and I wouldn’t  be surprised if they’re tracking to something crazy like 5x more marketing $ to acquisition efficiency with a combination of better analytics, better channels, lower rates, more overall consumer mindshare, and better pricing / offers. Secondary metrics: Updated acquisition guidance - accountable.opendoor.com has been a boon for retail investors but the company has barely managed to eeke out the bottom of the guidance so far. We’ll see what they say in terms of their guided range for Q1 acquisitions after their blockbuster week this week and hopefully heading into Q2.  Cash Plus - Cash Plus is a game-changer and one of the few “Carrie-legacy” ideas that the new team has kept in place. However, there hasn’t been any public data around what the split is between the various seller options or the downstream impact to CM and margin variance. Could be big if they decide to share these so early. There’s so much I didn’t cover (partnership, market launches, buy direct) but I’ve highlighted what I think will move the needle in terms of stock price tomorrow. Still, we were thrown in a loop with the warrants last earnings call and there could well be another big thing brewing tomorrow.  My gut says we’re in for a treat, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.  Cheers! Jeff

@lessin Congrats my friend!

Big boy business... tho you leave us out of the annoucnemnet as 'leading VC'? we own more and invested earlier (first) than USV ;) what are we, chopped liver? :)

@GEVS94 💪👊

It was great to be back in El Salvador, almost 10 years after I left, and to find the country in the wake of a new dawn with President Bukele. Excited for what’s coming. I will forever be grateful for the main lesson that my country taught me early on: You have to take every inch and treat it as if it’s the last opportunity you’ll ever get. You have to act on it NOW because it might be gone in seconds, and the opportunity might never present itself again. Eventually, if you treat every inch with that level of intensity and you keep pushing and working hard, the inch will turn into a mile and the mile will turn into a road. I can’t wait to turn the road into a the largest highway that was ever built. 1 Corinthians 1:28-29 Finally, I’m incredibly grateful to work at THE institution that embodies the American dream: a27z. I got my job after I reached out cold, and they’ve opened opportunities I could have never imagined.

Amazing to see @emilmichael joining the DOD in a most important role as UnderSec Research & Engineering, in addition to @skupor as Director of OPM and @sriramk overseeing Policy for AI — at a pivotal moment for tech globally.

@emilmichael @realDonaldTrump @PeteHegseth Huge congrats, Emil! 💪🚀

I couldn’t be more grateful for @realDonaldTrump ‘s nomination to serve our nation as Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. It is a dream come true and I can’t wait to get started as part of @PeteHegseth ‘s leadership team. Our best days are yet to come!

@tonsing @techbrospod Legend.

Caffeinated just made a massive signing today! It's a huge play for Caffeinated as we continue stacking the talent to dominate the startup landscape! Our guy is an animal. We made a dynasty move today...... It's an absolute dog of a signing. Stay locked in. cc: @techbrospod Joking, not joking ✌️

@cpoetzscher Could not agree more with you, Cameron. It's been a privilege to work with and learn from @emilmichael

Emil would be an incredible leader for the DoT. He's one of the smartest, most entrepreneurial, & hardest working people I've ever worked with. He is a visionary, inspiring, empathetic, and high-integrity leader who brings out the very best in people. I know so many men & women who worked with me on Emil’s team who feel exactly the same way, and would say that working with Emil was the best experience of their careers. And like so many immigrants, he dearly loves America and wants to help make it an even better country. In addition to his extensive experience in the private sector, he has already made significant contributions in the public sector earlier in his career. He would be an amazing Transportation Secretary. I hope President-elect Trump nominates him & the Senate swiftly confirms him. nytimes.com/2024/11/14/tec…

"The Case for LatAm" was the theme of my presentation today at @lavca_org 's annual conference. For any of those that still doubt Latin America can produce some of the world's best tech companies, check out the data and analysis we shared today 👇

Founder equity is a sensitive subject but I wanted to share a couple thoughts I have on the subject that I think align everyone’s interests better and are just generally more fair than the current status quo: 1. I think founder vesting ought to be longer than 4 years. It’s just not really enough time from day zero, there is too much work to do ahead at day 1,460. This might sound “founder unfriendly” but when you think about it a bit longer it’s really not. A startup is almost never done in less than 4 years, and if it is everyone will get vested anyway. So really this is friendly to the founders who stay longer and do the work between days 1,460 and 5,000+. There are a lot of scenarios where a founder leaves after 3 or 4 or 5 years, with 20% of the company, and the remaining founder now has a huge amount of work left to do with a big hole on the cap table that no one sizing up the situation would really consider fair. 2. After the initial vesting period, I think founder refreshers tend to be way smaller than they ought to be. VCs will go through humongous contortions to tell founders why they don’t deserve the same refresh grant that it would cost to hire a replacement for their role. And at the end of the day all the arguments for paying the founders less eventually seem to boil down to “because we can get away with it”, which is not really a great way to do business. Same goes for any other exec here imo. So that’s where I think things ought to be — longer initial vesting periods, larger refresh grants — but unfortunately there are a lot of incentives making it tough to make changes on either.

FJ Labs’ B2B Marketplace Thesis For consumers, the Internet has made everything cheaper, better, and faster. We have extraordinary user experiences and infinite convenience. Digital penetration is above 20% in many categories. We can order almost anything online on Amazon and get it within a day or two. We can order food on Doordash and get it in 30 minutes. We can get a car on Uber to take us anywhere within minutes. We can book delightful stays on Airbnb and Booking. Such a revolution has not yet happened in the B2B world. In most industries we have digital penetration below 5%, and it’s often below 1%. In most categories, there is no online catalog. There is no online pricing. There is no connectivity to the factories to understand manufacturing capacity and availability. There is no online ordering. There is no online payment, no order tracking. Insurance and financing cannot be ordered online. Whether it’s at large enterprises or small businesses, much is still done via pen and paper. The opportunity is large. B2B accounts for a large percentage of GDP. Many categories have trillions of dollars of annual GMV potential. Given the low penetration, it will take decades to digitize B2B supply chains, so this trend has a long runway ahead of it with the potential for hundreds of startups covering every vertical and geography. fabricegrinda.com/fj-labs-b2b-ma…

@JonnyNemo @sweetgreen Awesome! Congrats

Proud of the @sweetgreen team for posting our 9th consecutive quarter with 20%+ growth and delivering our first profitable quarter! 🚀

Em 2 anos a Buser reduziu o custo da passagem RJ-SP em 49%. Já o trajeto BH-SP ficou 61% mais barato 🚌 Enquanto a política atrapalha, Tech segue melhorando a vida do Brasileiro 🇧🇷

@tonsing Boom!

Excited to partner with Danilo & Ariel! And excited to do more with our friends at Canary. 🌴 techcrunch.com/2022/03/09/mar…

Let's do it again x2! USA & LatAm roles. Come PARTNER with me and invest $20M. Hello Miami 🌴 caffeinatedcapital.notion.site/Caffeinated-Ca…

@hbarra one of the most intellectually curious leaders. Don't miss his insights on LatAm.

Here are the Top 10 most fascinating stats about LatAm Tech in 2021 from Atlantico founding partner @JulioV and our team at @AtlanticoPart 🇧🇷🇲🇽🇨🇴🇦🇷

The 2021 edition of Atlantico's LatAm Digital Report is here! 200 slides of fresh data that tell a robust story of LatAm's booming tech scene. This year we focus on the 2nd- and 3rd-order effects of the region's rapid digitalization. Thread👇

@mlevchin @aehartz123 @nlevchin I can attest to that! 💪🙏

.@aehartz123 & @nlevchin are always one or two intellectual leaps ahead of the fintech venture capital pack. And, they work for their companies.

@HarryStebbings @fintechjunkie @QEDInvestors @fintechjunkie awesome!! Can't wait

Writing our schedule for the episode recording tomorrow with @fintechjunkie @QEDInvestors. My word, this episode will be 🔥 Stay tuned...