MTFutures
104 posts
There's 6647 1st target up hit exact. #ES_F has gone nowhere for 24hrs, trapping around 6623 magnet
~6:30AM, ES put in a classic Failed Breakdown of yesterdays 6612 daily low (given to newsletter readers 430pm yesterday). Targets given 8am were 6647 (hit), 6663 (hit), 6676 next
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday was all about 6623. Held 6-7x and we ran to 6658, 6690 bonus target. 2hrs ago we got *another* perfect Failed Breakdown. Per 4pm newsletter, traps of 6612 were actionable. We got it, ran to 6640 Plan: 6623=support. 6647, 6663, 6676 next. 6623 fails, dip 6612, 6592
English
@AdamMancini4 @AdamMancini4 NL sub here. At 10.30 we hit 6620 and ran up to 6657. Also at 9.30 we hit 6611 and ran up to 6655. Both of these ran 30+ to qualify for fbd. if price runs to 35, do we enter again or wait for one of these fbd to occur and then enter for 35 long? ty
English
Pinpoint precision today in #ES_F and its a pure lvl to lvl day traders market. 6623 support as posted 8am. Held many times (back now). 6635 reclaim triggers up as posted. Targets were 6642 (hit 3x), 6658-62 (hit exact, rejected.
No change to rest of targets of triggers
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Its a day traders market today in #ES_F and all about 6623 support posted 8am. We've been testing/trapping all day, and just hit it again. No change: 6635 reclaims see (6642 - hit 2x), 6658-62. No rally today until that recovers Bears control fully under yesterday's 6716 support
English
@AdamMancini4 @AdamMancini4 NL sub. I think 90% of reclaim seems to result in drawdown. the 6749 attempted 3 key reclaims from 9.30 and went up to 6758 but couldn't reach the 64 back test area..it may get there but i had to face the reality of exiting the trade to protect acct.
English
After some good volatility to start in #ES_F, now chop ahead of FOMC 2pm. Bears control until 6764-70 recovers. It was a support shelf all day yesterday and it must recover to rally.
6749 reclaim to back-test it as posted. If we keep dipping, 6727, 6716 (watch traps)=support
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
First "elevator down" sell for #ES_F following Sunday's 135 point 6689 Failed Breakdown. Usually, pre-FOMC sells good for bulls. Little to do but wait for a reclaim though. Bears control until 6764-70 shelf recovers. 6749 reclaim could pop there 6727, 6716 (watch traps) below
English
@AdamMancini4 @AdamMancini4 Seems like we are testing 6785....that level got messy from 11 am onwards...is that still a good level and .if we successfully reclaim, upside target is 6793 and 6804?
English
All the action went to the morning traders, but levels respecting perfect. 6743 was support posted 8am. It held. Targets were 6793 final (hit). 6802 (hit), 6819 (not yet) were bonus.
I then posted 6766-70 was support for the dip, and we've held for hours. Same upside targets
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Mid-day chop in effect, but levels respecting well in #ES_F. 6743 was support given at 8am. It held. Targets were 6754, 6770, 6793 final (all hit). Bonus were 6802, 6819. We hit 1/2 bonus I posted 2hrs ago that 6766-70 support, and its held since. Same upside targets. 6743 below
English
@AdamMancini4 @AdamMancini4 was hoping for the overnight flush and recover. The 35 acceptance was a good example you provided for learners. Bit taken aback by the rally from there despite the possibility of over night flush. Is 6827-6832 the final magnet?
English
Picture perfect session in #ES_F and 6793 final target hit. Longs were still working from Sunday's 6689 Failed Breakdown given to newsletter readers before open. Today's slate given at 8am (off 6743 support) were 6754, 6770, 6793 (all hit). Bonus set were 6802 (hit).
6819 next
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Its always good when we hit targets within 30mins of my morning target post in #ES_F. Longs still working from Sunday 6689 Failed Breakdown. I posted 30mins ago 6743/35=support. Held. Targets were 6754 (hit), 6766-70 (hit), 6793 final Above there, bonus slate is 6802, 6808, 6819
English
@mt56281 1 point Failed Breakdowns are very common and happen all the time. I'll usually still give the stop room though and put in at least 5 points below the low
English
As always in #ES_F the law is every "elevator down" sell is paid back via a Failed Breakdown & rip. We saw it overnight. 6641 Monday low trap was trigger given to readers. Today's targets were 6716 1st (hit). 6738 2nd, then 6758-65 to backtest ystd breakdown
6693, 6685=supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Past week was a goldmine for my core setup: The Failed Breakdown in #ES_F. Per 4pm newsletter, traps of Monday's 6641 low trigger long. At 4am we trapped it by 1 points, recovered, now +60 Plan today: 6693, 6685=supports. 6716, 6738, 6758-65 backtest todays targets. Dip<85 to
English
@AdamMancini4 The chop was so severe that the first trade of 61 reclaim was good and took the tp at 72 but the subsequent reclaim attempt of 61 and 66 per NL got shot down and stop got taken out compromising the tp i had acheived..trying to stay away from this megaphone channel.
English
Yesterday at 7:50AM I posted the 6822 Reclaim triggers long in #ES_F. Main target was 6884 and ES agrees: We've been here nearly 24hrs. This is now extreme, low quality chop. Dont force trades
Plan today: 6863-66=support (watch traps). 6876, 6888, 6899 above. 6855, 6842=supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
All the action today went to the morning traders in #ES_F - now just pure chop. Hold runners. 6822 reclaim was long trigger given at 7:50AM. Targets were 6838, 6848-52, 6884 which was big res as posted. Been here for 4 hours now, slowly pushing through 6904 next, also big
English
@lamarroemer @AdamMancini4 I guess so..saw the post for TPs as 50 and 60..so held it to see if I can get to 50 1st. Reduced TP target to 44 as I saw some good structure of resistance above that at 46. But it flushed.
English
@mt56281 @AdamMancini4 I’m assuming Adam would have entered at 35 but took profit take at 42 yesterday’s low, so he was in one profit take before you even entered. Though I am surprised he carried that large of position into CPI and NFP, used to only be 10% runner in past years into data.
English
Initial CPI reaction in the books. Targets today given at 8am were 6850 1st up in #ES_F (hit), 6860 2nd up (hit). Setup here was the Failed Breakdown of the 6824 1:30AM overnight low as posted. 6860 must clear now to see 6870, then 6893, then real rally starts.
Sell under 6822
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Ystd, #ES_F lost its 3 day 6954 support shelf, triggering 1st dip in a week. Sell algo on until a Failed Breakdown triggers, then squeeze Plan today: Mini Failed Breakdown of overnight low active. 6850, 6860 above. 6860 must recover to see 6870, 6893+. 6822 fails, dip 6813 6795
English
@D5star_general @AdamMancini4 I thought about it..but since NL said if price is collapsing and we got 6813, that's 17 pts below the entry is pretty rough though..you know?
English
@mt56281 @AdamMancini4 stop loss should have been under that low but i understand its a tough situation
English
@AdamMancini4 @AdamMancini4 Hey Adam, In the ON sweep case, what was the targeted entry 73 or 78 after acceptance? NL said recovery of 78, but ON had basing at 73. 78 recovery to 1st TP of 82, is way too short a dist. I missed the boat to capture but want to learn. TQ!
English
Picture perfect start the day in #ES_F as we begin range trading. I posted at 8am 6970-6998=chop. I posted to "watch sweeps overnight low to setup 6982, 6998". We swept the overnight low, recovered, hit 6982. Lock in gains, ride runner
6998 next, then 7006+ above. Sell<6970
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After 218 point rally from Thursday 8pm 6773 Macro Failed Breakdown, #ES_F finally resting. Yesterday's bonus target was 6998, we hit exact 2:30PM & exact overnight Plan today: 6970-6998=chop. Watch sweeps of overnight low to setup 6982, 6998, 7006+. 70 fails, dip 58-60, 6945
English
@AdamMancini4 @AdamMancini4 NL sub. Can you enlighten, why the 6938 recovery failed especially when that zone has been tested to death? this probably was not the best trade entry i ever took. should have stayed away to protect my account.
English
There's 6905 target hit. Textbook Failed Breakdown. Today was all about 6872 as posted. It held 2x, and I posted 1hr ago to watch for traps. We trapped bears below, recovered & were off. Targets were 6896 (hit), 6905 (hit). 6913, 6925, 6938 if #ES_F wants more
Bears control<6938
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
6872 keeps paying over & over in #ES_F. It was support as posted all morning - held 2x for bounces to 6896 resistance. I then posted 38mins ago to watch traps of 6872. We swept it, trapped, and ripped back to 6896 again. *Protect gains*. Bulls must recover to see 6905, 6913+
English
@AdamMancini4 @AdamMancini4 ty for the levels today of 42 reclaim. platform closed. happy new year to all! Here is something that I follow ever since started trading futures and every time I read your NL.
youtube.com/watch?v=pQf1ye…
YouTube
English
Important note: As I indicated yesterday 8am we remain in slow, no volatility holiday chop until Monday. Setups are scarce, and take *hours* to even follow through for a few points. Do no overtrade in this context. 6935-6963=complete noise x.com/AdamMancini4/s…
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Very important note: We remain in no volatility holiday chop until Monday. ***do not overtrade this** - it is total random noise*. We get about 1 actionable burst of volatility that is tradeable per day as I discuss in newsletter. 6935-6963=total noise now with 6952 being magnet
English
Yesterday was one of the slowest days of 2025 in #ES_F. 6944/48 reclaim was long trigger given, with 6952, 6959, 6963 targets. We ran to ~6961, then chopped all day at 6952.
Plan today: Bulls must reclaim 6942 to see 6948, 6952, 6956+. 6925=support (watch traps). 6913 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
While holiday volatility still very low - we are getting setups in #ES_F. As posted live, 6944/48 Failed Breakdowns trigger long. We got it. Targets were 6952 (hit), 6959 (hit), 6963 (1.5 points shy). Just hold runner. 6973+ if ES wants more. No change to setups or supports
English
@AdamMancini4 what a deep flush and recovery to get to the target..ty Adam. God bless you!. Platform closed. ty!
English
Volatility remains non-existent & #ES_F glued to 6952 since 4pm yesterday. Yesterday's support was the 6935-38 backtest (held exact) with 6954, 6959-61 targets. After hitting, ES is stuck
No change: Bulls must reclaim 6952-54 with force to see 6959, 6963, 6973+. Same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Holiday chop continues with #ES_F stalled since 4pm. Yesterday plan tracked. 6935-38 was support as posted (held), targets were 6954, 6959-61 (hit) Plan today: *Dont overtrade*. Bulls must reclaim 6952-54 with force to see 6959, 6963, 6973+. 6942, 6934-38=support (watch traps)
English
@AdamMancini4 @SuperHumanEpoch ...nice advise at the right time, I was curious about the NL levels, where flush to 47 and recovery of 52 was actionable, which happened at 2:30 AM and 6:15 AM. But price continue to retest that range even now. Sitting on entry at 52 to get to target levels.
English
@SuperHumanEpoch That's holiday trading! Can still trade but as I said in newsletter you need to use wide stops, and be prepared to wait 4+ hours for the move to emerge. And don't overtrade under any circumstance, pick a trade and sit on it for many hours!
English
Holiday chop continues with #ES_F stalled since 4pm. Yesterday plan tracked. 6935-38 was support as posted (held), targets were 6954, 6959-61 (hit)
Plan today: *Dont overtrade*. Bulls must reclaim 6952-54 with force to see 6959, 6963, 6973+. 6942, 6934-38=support (watch traps)
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Picture perfect follow through in #ES_F. As posted both here and in newsletter 6935-38 was support and back-test of the December 23rd breakout shelf. It held exact. I also posted 6942 reclaim was a trigger. Targets I gave were 6954 1st (hit), 6959-61 2nd (hit). 6973-76 next
English
@AdamMancini4 thx for the level. the 42 reclaim was a nice one. NL methodology typically suggests to wait for 2-3 mins , looking at the micro 1 min chart,price kept testing 40, i guess that is still a valid test of 42 zone. For people who missed, does a flush and reclaim of 42 still valid?tx
English
6935-38 was support as posted here/in newsletter and good 15 point bounce off it in #ES_F. This is just a simple Back-Test. From Dec 22nd-23rd 6935-38 was a big resistance. We broke out, rallied into Xmas, Back-Tested. Bulls want to keep holding it.
6954, 6959-61 remain above
English
@AdamMancini4 Thanks @AdamMancini4 . although that 44 zone had a lot of context back from Oct, was bit surprised about the rally from there to reclaim 59, as I was anticipating price to get down to 35-38 zone from NL, if 59 zone failed as there wasn't much below..
English
@mt56281 59 is very well accepted now. Clear example of the first type of acceptance. No volatility though and there's a small sell algo that got turned on this morning so will need to wait for that program to finish. Usually they run for a few hours in this context
English
Quick opening move & as always when we volatility, things are easier (we typically get 1 burst per day during holiday chop). I posted bulls had to recover 6959-61 to rally to 6967+ & we hit 6967 exact. 6959-61 remains a choppy magnet.
6973-75 if #ES_F wants more. Same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We are *finally* getting some good volatility/red after 5 green days last week which took us to 6989 target in #ES_F. 6961 was support today as posted and after basing there for 4hrs, failed. Bulls need to recover 6959-61 to rally today to 6967, 6973-75. 6935-37 next support
English
@AdamMancini4 Hey Adam, based on price action this morning, is 59 a well accepted zone? as we rallied up to 67 and came back to retest 44 and accepted it well. I'm inclined to read 59 is weak unless we test real hard over the next 5-15 mins. Any thoughts?
English
Note: 6959-61 reclaims will remain actionable, but just remember we are still in low volatility/volume holiday trading for the next week. Very important to not overtrade and always take profits level to level (6967 1st profit take still). Same downside supports from newsletter
English
@AdamMancini4 Understood..thank you and good insight to keep it in mind!!
English
@mt56281 That's a very tight stop (1 point below the low) - In this type of no volatility action you have to give things tons of space and time to move. It can take 3-4hrs to even make a 10 point move
English
After a 75 point rally from Tuesdays 6925 Reclaim long to 6989 targets, its been chop today in #ES_F. As warned at 8am, 6973-6989=chop range. Weve tested/trapped 6973 5x today. No volatility-no overtrading holiday noise as warned
6982, 6989 remain above. 6967, 6963=next supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After a decent burst of volatility around the open, we've settled back into holiday chop. 6973 support as posted 8am & #ES_F agrees. Held to the tick 10:10AM, bounced 13 points. Tested again 11:10AM. Now probing below. Bulls want to recover to see 82, 89+ again. 6967, 6963 below
English